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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: AFFX; BIIB; UTX; SNDA; CREE; CME; MCO
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/09/2004
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$23.49; +0.80; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
After Hours: $23.45
STATUS: Breakout. CMVT broke out from an 11 month trading range in October, rallying up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA). After 4 to 5 such bounces it needs a rest. It took that rest the last three weeks of November, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (21.07). After the run up the short term MA on the breakout the 50 day EMA is the support level. CMVT found support there and is making the next breakout, moving on strong volume. Relative strength is breaking out as well, a very good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 4.202M Avg Volume: 2.73M
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=3.2M Target=$28 Stop=$22.05
POSITION: CQV DX - Apr. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
CREAF (Creative Technology--$15.5; +0.8; optionable): The other Ipod
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/creaf.html
After Hours: $15.72
STATUS: Test breakout. CREAF is surging on volume once more, the second bounce off the short term MA (this time the 10 day EMA at 14.36) as we head into the holiday season. It makes another pocket music player, and they claim it is better than the Apple version as it has a built in radio, is smaller, etc. Basically it is poaching off the Ipod, but what do we care? We will gladly let them fight it out as they both run higher ahead of the holidays. In any event, AAPL is used to this; remember Jobs giving away the farm to Gates at Microsoft? CREAF broke out from an 11 month cup with handle base in November and is surging on higher volume ever since. Looking to pick it up on the further move higher.
Volume: 3.553M Avg Volume: 285.772K
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=1M Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.95
POSITION: RFQ DC - Apr. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/creaf.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/01/2004
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$37.55; +0.02; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
After Hours: $37.41
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started to edge up this week as ANSI works on its three week handle, holding support at 36. Getting ready to make a move in its 10 month base. Money flow remains strong. Just waiting for the volume to really jump in.
Volume: 383.432K Avg Volume: 369.681K
BUY POINT: New: $38.05 (orig. $37.28) Volume=450K Target=$43.45 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: UAI BG - Feb. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 12/07/2004
TUES (Tuesday Morning--$36.29; +0.3; optionable): Discount variety stores
After Hours: $36.37
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tues.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Another solid volume session as TUES moved to the breakout point but backed off from the high to close. Still solid in its 8.5 month base that is the tail end of a longer 16 month pattern. Money flow is surging higher, and we are looking to move in on a continued volume move higher.
Volume: 364.533K Avg Volume: 238.767K
BUY POINT: New: $36.42 (orig. $36.25) Volume=402K Target=$43 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: UUG CG - Mar. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tues.html
Play Date: 12/07/2004
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.19; 0.00; optionable): Market research, polling, and consulting (Harris polls, etc.)
After Hours: $7.20
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Still testing the 200 day (7.07) Thursday as volume continues to build. When a stock has pulled back to support and trades in a tight range on higher volume, it is usually a sign it is about to bust higher. Think of it as crouching down and getting ready to spring. The move would continue the run higher to form the right side of its 11 month cup base. Looks ready to follow the money higher.
Volume: 461.439K Avg Volume: 240.545K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=400K Target=$8.98 Stop=$7.07
POSITION: HQS DU - Apr. $7.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hpol.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-04
BMET: Forecast 12-17-04.
BSC: Tentative date: 12-15-04
CDWC: Researching the date.
CHS: Forecast 12-14 or 12-15
CMTL: No split announced 12-7-04 but nice earnings gapped it sharply higher. Used test Thursday to enter.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Ready to make the break higher as volume rallies.
DE: Forecast early 2005. Researching exact date.
DGX: Researching next date, tentatively 1-25-05.
EBAY: Forecast to announce another split in January. Researching the exact date.
EASI: Forecast 12-14-04 before the open.
EXBD: Still researching next date as no split announced this month.
FDX: No split announced with the 12-6 board meeting. Still running higher on excellent volume.
GPN: Forecast 12-16-04
HAR: Forecast 1-26-04.
KMRT: Researching date after its announcement of the Sears acquisition
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: No split announced 12-7, but a good bounce off the 18 day EMA Thursday as it continues its trend higher.
MGG: No split announced with the 12-7-04 board meeting. Nice lateral move to test the early month gap higher.
NMGA: Forecast 12-1-04. No split announcement to start the month. Trying to bounce off the 18 day EMA.
PIXR: Still researching the date. Rough time after gap down Wednesday on news it was delaying its next film.
SBUX: Researching next date.
SPLS: Researching next date.
TTC: No split 12-8-04, but a great gap higher.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-04
XRAY: Forecast 12-14-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Some old favorites have come back into split contention.
Play Date: 12/09/2004
IR (Ingersoll-Rand--$77.12; +1.39; optionable): Diversified machinery. Forecast mid-January. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in August 1997 at $63. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in May 1994 at $61.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ir.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from an 8 month cup with handle to start the month, making a nice, low volume test the past week. It has held at the 18 day EMA (74.98) on the test and then rebounding Thursday on rising volume, continuing the breakout move. Strong 10 to 4 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, setting up the breakout and run. It has tested and looks ready. Great money flow as leading and relative strength is ready for the next breakout as well.
Volume: 1.144M Avg Volume: 1.4M
BUY POINT: $77.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$90 Stop=$74.69
POSITION: IR CO - Mar. $75c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ir.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$94; +1.42; optionable): Organic foods stores. Forecast in late January. Researching to pinpoint the exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
After Hours: $93.99
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has moved above average this week as WMFI has come off the bottom of the handle to its 5.5 month base. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation shows buyers once again moving into the stock, a perennial winner. Looking for volume to continue as WFMI moves through 95.
Volume: 1.116M Avg Volume: 1.036M
BUY POINT: $94.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$110 Stop=$92.88
POSITION: FMQ BS - Feb. $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$44.25; -0.04; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 1-24-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 1-22-01. Prior to that it announced splits in March 1999, April 1998, and December 1997.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
STATUS: Flat base. On the verge of the breakout from its 5 week lateral move, still working laterally on very low, below average volume. Holding its gains, biding its time as the retailers take a breather after a good run into late November. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation as it works laterally with money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 960.053K Avg Volume: 1.93M
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $44.25) Volume=2.8M Target=$50.65 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: AQU BI - Feb. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
CHS (Chicos Fas--$44.04; +0.86; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 12-14-04 or 12-15-04 before or during market hours.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-27-02 at $36. Before that it announced splits 12-19-01 (3:2 at $38); 4-19-01 (3:2 at $42); 12-14-99 (2:1 at $43).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Ready to make the move. Volume was up Thursday as CHS moved right up to the breakout point from its 22 week base sporting solid 6 to 4 accumulation. After the breather following the big gap higher on earnings, it is ready to continue the move higher.
Volume: 1.308M Avg Volume: 1.683M
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$50.88 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: CHS BI - Feb. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 12/07/2004
DE (Deere & Co.--$70.75; +1.62; optionable): Nothing runs like a Deere. Forecast early next year, but forming up well now.
After Hours: $70.75
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split in 1995 at $70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Deere started to run Thursday, moving back over the 18 day EMA (69.72) on rising, average volume. Looking for a further move on even better volume to step in. Solid 8 month base sporting solid 11 to 8 accumulation and excellent money flow to match the pattern and accumulation. Love their equipment; have a Gator and would like one of their fancy tractors, but that green paint costs a lot of money.
Volume: 2.216M Avg Volume: 2.124M
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$81.55 Stop=$69.42
POSITION: DEN CN - Mar. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/05/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$39.27; +0.02; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 12-30-04
After Hours: $39.24
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Flat base. Big volume on Wednesday but stalled out flat Thursday on very low volume. Given the market, not bad. A leader doing its own thing, which just happens to be lead the market. Looking for the next strong break higher from this 5 week lateral move.
Volume: 322.781K Avg Volume: 512.681K
BUY POINT: New: $39.75 (orig. $38.88) Volume=375K Target=$47 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: KUO CG - Mar. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bebe.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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