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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: APCS; ATVI; CMVT; RMBS
Thursday night play results:
AAPL: Gapped up on some solid volume.
CMVT: Strong volume once again as the breakout continues
CREAF: Rallied again on volume but gave it back to the close.
LNUX: Rallied further but then turned back on lower though still above average volume.
New Plays:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
AXYX (Axonyx--$6.93; -0.07; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axyx.html
After Hours: $6.78
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice, quiet handle to its 30 week base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows net buyers during the base, setting up the breakout to come. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price even as the stock makes this low volume pullback to form the handle right over the 18 day EMA (6.93), a very good support level for the handle. Nice doji on the candlestick chart right at the 18 day EMA, and after a pullback that indicates a change of direction in the works. Looking for the low, below average volume to give way to strong breakout volume.
Volume: 342.657K Avg Volume: 616.636K
BUY POINT: $7.55 Volume=925K Target=$9.12 Stop=$7
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axyx.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
FALC (Falconstar Software--$8.32; -0.03; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/falc.html
After Hours: $8.35
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FALC is easing back to the 10 day EMA (8.20) to form a low volume handle to its 11 month base. The last 8 months of the base it formed a reverse head and shoulders, a nice accumulation pattern that often occurs off the lows of a pullback. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers during the consolidation, and money flow has exploded higher ahead of price. Nice consolidation of the strong move to start the month, and getting ready to rally back.
Volume: 117.159K Avg Volume: 273.272K
BUY POINT: $8.65 Volume=400K Target=$10.42 Stop=$8.17
POSITION: XMQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/falc.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
FLO (Flowers Foods--$30.24; -0.08; optionable): Processed and packaged goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Not a lot of sex appeal, but the sex is in the move. FLO blasted out of a 11 month trading range in early November, rallying to 23 on an explosive move. Accumulation was solid in the range, showing a 5 to 3 positive margin during the 25 weeks of the pattern. Big upside breakout and run volume followed by a slow, easy pullback to the 18 day EMA (29.83) to test the move. The low volume on the pullback shows few sellers as the stock succumbs to some profit taking. We really like the first test of a breakout; when the stock turns back up on stronger volume that shows buyers are ready to get back in the stock even at this higher price.
Volume: 121.4K Avg Volume: 156.386K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=188K Target=$35.65 Stop=$29.71
POSITION: FLO DF - Apr. $30c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flo.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$60.68; +1.32; optionable): Big American made motorcyles
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
After Hours: $60.69
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has turned higher and above average the past three sessions as HDI starts the breakout move from its 14 week base. Thursday the company announced some new names at the top as well as an increase in its quarterly dividend. After a nice run in the second half of 2003 into June 2004 HDI needed a good rest. This base has given it the rest it needs and the strong upside volume on the Friday move is a good sign. Want to see it continue as the stock moves to show us the buyers are still in there.
Volume: 2.282M Avg Volume: 1.489M
BUY POINT: $61.05 Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hdi.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$34.70; +0.54; optionable): Laser vision clinics. Splits 3:2 on 12-16-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Breakout test. LCAV is making the first test of the breakout from its 24 week reverse head and shoulders base. A nice lateral move above the 18 day EMA (33.29) is narrowing as moves higher up that support below a constant top the past week at 34.95. It splits next week, and the pattern looks good to get some upside momentum to break it out moving in to the split.
Volume: 163.605K Avg Volume: 276.103K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=350K Target=$41 Stop=$33.82
POSITION: JVQ CG - Mar. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lcav.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$23.81; +0.43; optionable): Hardware for insta-ticket lotteries and pari-mutuel wagering industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
After Hours: $23.81
STATUS: Breakout test. SGMS is moving in a 6 week ascending triangle above the 18 day EMA (23.08) after the early November breakout from its 7 month reverse head and shoulders base. Excellent 10 to 4 accumulation in the base shows a lot of net buyers setting the foundation for the breakout move. It has made the breakout and is not giving back the gains, a sign of strength. Volume jumped back above average Friday as the stock rallied toward the breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good corroboration of the move. Ready to make the breakout, and the first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 924.063K Avg Volume: 747.855K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$29 Stop=$23.25
POSITION: TUJ DX - Apr. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgms.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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