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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: APCS; CMVT; GYI; KFY; RMBS; TEN
Thursday night play results:
CMVT: Nice volume surge continued, and so did the price move.
LNUX: Could not continue the move, stalling out at 3 again on some lower volume.
TRI: Took the day off, holding flat on lower volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
ACMR (A.C. Moore--$29.64; +1.44; optionable): Arts and crafts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acmr.html
After Hours: $29.59
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Friday as ACMR moved toward the breakout from its 8 month base. Excellent 12 to 4 accumulation (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid net buyers during the base, setting up the breakout foundation and the run higher. Outstanding money flow is leading the move higher, rising as the stock has worked lower in the handle. The handle is that lateral and lower move that shakes out the last sellers as they get frustrated when the stock starts to falter back near the old high. The volume Friday shows the interest is still there, and a breakout move pushes the stock to an all-time high. We like that because there are not any PO'd shareholders ready to dump the stock; indeed, they are all happy because the stock is doing so well.
Volume: 528.931K Avg Volume: 155.009K
BUY POINT: $30.35 Volume=233K Target=$35.55 Stop=$28.55
POSITION: QRV CF - Mar. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acmr.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
AXYX (Axonyx--$6.93; -0.07; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axyx.html
After Hours: $6.78
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a nice, quiet handle to its 30 week base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows net buyers during the base, setting up the breakout to come. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price even as the stock makes this low volume pullback to form the handle right over the 18 day EMA (6.93), a very good support level for the handle. Nice doji on the candlestick chart right at the 18 day EMA, and after a pullback that indicates a change of direction in the works. Looking for the low, below average volume to give way to strong breakout volume.
Volume: 342.657K Avg Volume: 616.636K
BUY POINT: $7.55 Volume=925K Target=$9.12 Stop=$7
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/axyx.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
FARO (Faro Technologies--$28.9; +2; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/faro.html
STATUS: Nice break higher Friday from its 11 month cup with handle base, gapping higher and rallying through resistance to close right at the session high. Nice action on the breakout to compliment the strong 13 to 7 accumulation in the base that shows plenty of buyers as the stock consolidated. Solid money flow is an added plus. Looking to initiate some positions on a continued volume move from here and then on the first test if it is a good low volume move as it pulls back to test near support.
Volume: 422.885K Avg Volume: 170K
BUY POINT: $29.15 Volume=255K Target=$34.98 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: QEJ CF - Mar. $30c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/faro.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
FLO (Flowers Foods--$30.24; -0.08; optionable): Processed and packaged goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Not a lot of sex appeal, but the sex is in the move. FLO blasted out of a 11 month trading range in early November, rallying to 23 on an explosive move. Accumulation was solid in the range, showing a 5 to 3 positive margin during the 25 weeks of the pattern. Big upside breakout and run volume followed by a slow, easy pullback to the 18 day EMA (29.83) to test the move. The low volume on the pullback shows few sellers as the stock succumbs to some profit taking. We really like the first test of a breakout; when the stock turns back up on stronger volume that shows buyers are ready to get back in the stock even at this higher price.
Volume: 121.4K Avg Volume: 156.386K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=188K Target=$35.65 Stop=$29.71
POSITION: FLO DF - Apr. $30c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/flo.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
QCOM: And it still looks ready.
BR: Trying to make a stand at the 50 day EMA even with oil prices diving lower still.
EASI: May be a final shakeout in the handle of the 5.5 month base.
HDWR: In trouble as it rolls lower from a weak volume test of the break below the 50 d
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
ARD: Oil and gas company that broke out over some resistance to start the month and has enjoyed strong volume gains (for this stock) as it has rallied straight up. A lower volume stock (average is about 17K), but a relatively new issue (April 2003). New issues can be some of the better performers.
PARL: Moving laterally on lower, below average volume after a strong late November breakout from a 7 week base that followed on the heels of a 7 month saucer base. It is trading at an all-time high, preparing for the next breakout. A new issue in 12-2002.
VTIV: Ready to break to an all-time high as it trades at the top of a 7 month base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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