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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ATVI; CMVT; MGG; UTX
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$43.3; -0.13; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $43.50
STATUS: Cup w/handle. QCOM split in August, and that acted as a catalyst to break it higher. It needed a breather and the current 8 week base has given it what it needed. Classic action as volume dried up at the bottom of the pattern and then surged back as the stock rallied up to form the right side of the pattern. Backed off in the handle as QCOM eased back to test the 10 day EMA (42.88) as support. Volume was up Thursday as QCOM made an intraday tap at the 18 day EMA (42.29) and then rebounded. Looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 9.422M Avg Volume: 14.114M
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=20M Target=$53 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: AAO DV - Apr. $42.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$17.36; +0.11; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from an 8.5 month double bottom with handle base in mid-November. It has rallied up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) after the breakout, just as a solid stock should. It is making its second test of the breakout, fading just below the 18 day EMA (17.52) on the current pullback, but holding at some support form a mid-November peak. Volume was up Friday as it held its ground and tried to start the rebound. Excellent 13 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows strong net buying that set up the breakout and run. A strong stock can make 4 to 5 bounces off the short term MA after the breakout. That means still plenty of upside room for this market leader.
Volume: 870.911K Avg Volume: 713.727K
BUY POINT: $17.89 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: QMS CW - Mar. $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$34.70; +0.54; optionable): Laser vision clinics. Splits 3:2 on 12-16-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another run at LCAV as it has set up well for its run into the split. It is making the first test of the breakout from its 24 week reverse head and shoulders base. A nice lateral move above the 18 day EMA (33.29) is narrowing as LCAV moves higher up that support below a constant top the past week at 34.95. It splits next week, and the pattern looks good to get some upside momentum to break it out moving in to the split.
Volume: 163.605K Avg Volume: 276.103K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=350K Target=$41 Stop=$33.82
POSITION: JVQ CG - Mar. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lcav.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/01/2004
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$38.56; +1.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped up Friday on strong volume, but traded up and down the rest of the session. That kept us out of the play, but it is looking quite nice in its 10 month base. Outstanding 14 to 5 accumulation has set up a good move while money flow remains strong. Looking for a continuation of the move that started Friday, and then we will start some positions.
Volume: 561.144K Avg Volume: 320.409K
BUY POINT: New: $38.72 (orig. $37.28) Volume=450K Target=$43.45 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: UAI BG - Feb. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 11/30/2004
STK (Storage Technology--$30.25; +0.01; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent low volume test of the explosive breakout to start the month. STK blasted out of an 11 month base on tremendous trade, rallying over 32 on the first run. It is now holding over the 18 day EMA (29.74), tapping that level on the intraday lows and recovering to close at the 10 day EMA (30.21). Showing a nice doji at that 10 day Friday, an indication that the rebound is ready to start. Money flow remains strong even as the stock tests the move.
Volume: 529.9K Avg Volume: 977.583K
BUY POINT: New: $30.65 (orig. $29.92) Volume=1.4M Target=$35.54 Stop=$29.98
POSITION: STK CF - Mar. $30c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-04
BMET: Forecast 12-17-04.
BSC: Tentative date: 12-15-04. Making a nice run with volume really starting to come in to end last week.
CDWC: Researching the date. Not doing it, making a 200 day SMA test. Will need to set back up.
CHS: Forecast 12-14 or 12-15
CMTL: Researching next date.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Ready to make the break higher.
DE: Forecast early 2005. Researching exact date.
DGX: Researching next date, tentatively 1-25-05.
EBAY: Forecast to announce another split in January. Researching the exact date.
EASI: Forecast 12-14-04 before the open.
FDX: No split announced with the 12-6 board meeting. Continues its run higher.
GPN: Forecast 12-16-04
HAR: Forecast 1-26-04.
IR: Forecast mid-January. Researching exact date.
KMRT: Researching date after its announcement of the Sears acquisition
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: No split announced 12-7. Researching next date as it makes a nice bounce off the 18 day EMA.
MGG: No split announced with the 12-7-04 board meeting. Surging on solid trade.
PIXR: Still researching the date.
SBUX: Researching next date as not announcement with November earnings. Starting to improve its sales after a brief lull.
SPLS: Researching next date.
TTC: No split 12-8-04, but a great gap higher. Now testing that gap but holding almost all of the gain.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-04
WFMI: Forecast late January. Researching exact date.
XRAY: Forecast 12-14-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Some old favorites have come back into split contention.
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$60.68; +1.32; optionable): Big American made motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split 1-12-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
After Hours: $60.69
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has turned higher and above average the past three sessions as HDI starts the breakout move from its 14 week base. Thursday the company announced some new names at the top as well as an increase in its quarterly dividend. After a nice run in the second half of 2003 into June 2004 HDI needed a good rest. This base has given it the rest it needs and the strong upside volume on the Friday move is a good sign. Want to see it continue as the stock moves to show us the buyers are still in there.
Volume: 2.282M Avg Volume: 1.489M
BUY POINT: $61.05 Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$44.17; -0.08; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 1-24-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 1-22-01. Prior to that it announced splits in March 1999, April 1998, and December 1997.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $44.21
STATUS: Flat base. Still holding in the 5 week range, and still moving laterally on low, below average volume. AEOS tapped the 18 day EMA (43.08) on the Friday low and rebounded to close flat. Still waiting for the volume surge to push it through the buy point. Again, this stocks has run hard to this point; we need to see that strong volume to show the buyers are stepping in yet again. Positive 2 to 0 accumulation is helping set the stage for the next move.
Volume: 1.03M Avg Volume: 1.566M
BUY POINT: New: $44.55 (orig. $44.25) Volume=2.8M Target=$50.65 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: AQU BI - Feb. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
CHS (Chicos Fas--$44.13; +0.09; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 12-14-04 or 12-15-04 before or during market hours.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-27-02 at $36. Before that it announced splits 12-19-01 (3:2 at $38); 4-19-01 (3:2 at $42); 12-14-99 (2:1 at $43).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still on the threshold of the breakout move, but volume faded Friday, and thus CHS did not have the power to make the breakout attempt stick. Still a solid 22 week base with solid 6 to 4 accumulation. It has taken its rest after gapping higher to start the month on some solid earnings. Waiting for the volume to rush in.
Volume: 884.5K Avg Volume: 1.534M
BUY POINT: New: $44.49 (orig. $44.11) Volume=2.5M Target=$50.88 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: CHS BI - Feb. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$93.70; -0.30; optionable): Organic foods stores. Forecast in late January. Researching to pinpoint the exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
After Hours: $93.52
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After some good volume moves midweek, WMFI took Friday off, basically going nowhere on very low, below average volume. It is tapping at the door of the breakout to its 5.5 month base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation. Strong earnings producer, and looking for a breakout on volume to start the position ahead of the potential date.
Volume: 578.148K Avg Volume: 888.227K
BUY POINT: $94.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$110 Stop=$92.88
POSITION: FMQ BS - Feb. $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/29/2004
INFY (Infosys Technologies--$66.68; +0.01; optionable): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infy.html
After Hours: $66.91
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After breaking out from a nice 8 month cup base INFY rallied up the 18 day EMA (67.29) on solid trade. It has started trending laterally in a $5 range the past 6 weeks on mostly lower volume. A strong leader making a test of the 50 day, a key support level; the big money comes in to support strong stocks at this level. Thus we want to see volume jump as it moves off of this level.
Volume: 401.117K Avg Volume: 740.863K
BUY POINT: $71.35 Volume=1M Target=$81 Stop=$69.48
POSITION: IUN DN - Apr. $70c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/infy.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
TASR (Taser--$27.02; +0.81; optionable): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
After Hours: $26.95
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TASR continues to work in a rather volatile but low volume handle to its 8 month base. It is making some higher lows in the handle, holding over some key support at 22 as it does. Volume moved up to average Friday as TASR rallied to 27.88 on the high and then backed off, managing to hold half of the session gain. Looking for a volume move over 28 to enter.
Volume: 9.241M Avg Volume: 17.8M
BUY POINT: $28.69 Volume=21M Target=$34 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: QUR CY - Mar. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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