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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: DUSA; NXTP
Best Plays:
1) WYNN: Starting what looks to be another strong run.
2) SGMS: Volume is running back up as it head for the breakout from its 6 week lateral consolidation.
3) ECL: Ready to go after a nice shakeout.
4) NGEN: Still very solid in a nice test.
5) DRIV: Nice 18 day EMA test.
6) STK: Nice doji over the 18 day EMA, testing a strong breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
EYET (Eyetech Pharmaceuticals--$42.87; -0.68; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eyet.html
After Hours: $43.06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issued in February 2003, this is the first real base for EYET, a 6 month pattern formed mostly at the 50 day EMA (41.21). Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying ongoing during the consolidation. This sets up the foundation for a breakout and subsequent run. Excellent money flow as well, still moving higher as the stock works laterally the past 8 weeks, forming the lateral handle to the base. Volume has been very low since breaking higher. The stock has been tapping at 44.25ish on the highs the past week as it holds in a tighter range over the 18 day EMA (42.71); that tighter range over support often precedes a breakout move.
Volume: 513.573K Avg Volume: 814.971K
BUY POINT: $44.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$52 Stop=$42.58
POSITION: QUJ CI - Mar. $45c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eyet.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
FALC (Falconstar Software--$8.32; -0.03; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/falc.html
After Hours: $8.35
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FALC is easing back to the 10 day EMA (8.20) to form a low volume handle to its 11 month base. The last 8 months of the base it formed a reverse head and shoulders, a nice accumulation pattern that often occurs off the lows of a pullback. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers during the consolidation, and money flow has exploded higher ahead of price. Nice consolidation of the strong move to start the month, and getting ready to rally back.
Volume: 117.159K Avg Volume: 273.272K
BUY POINT: $8.65 Volume=400K Target=$10.42 Stop=$8.17
POSITION: XMQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/falc.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$23.81; +0.43; optionable): Hardware for insta-ticket lotteries and pari-mutuel wagering industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
After Hours: $23.81
STATUS: Breakout test. SGMS is moving in a 6 week ascending triangle above the 18 day EMA (23.08) after the early November breakout from its 7 month reverse head and shoulders base. Excellent 10 to 4 accumulation in the base shows a lot of net buyers setting the foundation for the breakout move. It has made the breakout and is not giving back the gains, a sign of strength. Volume jumped back above average Friday as the stock rallied toward the breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good corroboration of the move. Ready to make the breakout, and the first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 924.063K Avg Volume: 747.855K
BUY POINT: $24.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$29 Stop=$23.25
POSITION: TUJ DX - Apr. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$64.10; +2.70; optionable): Vegas resort property (it is planning a big resort).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $63.85
STATUS: Cup. A small 6 week cup has formed as a small consolidation of the September breakout and run from a 14 week cup with handle base. That move made us some great money in a prior play, and this short consolidation is setting up a further run in the breakout move. Positive 2 to 1 in the short base shows net buying still. Money flow is strong, and volume jumped Friday as the stock posted a sharp move toward the breakout. Ready to move in on a further volume rally.
Volume: 2.11M Avg Volume: 1.031M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$75 Stop=$62.25
POSITION: UWY CM - Mar. $65c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wynn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$34.89; +0.03; optionable): Cleaning, sanitizing, pest removal products and services (and more) for just about every industry there is.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
After Hours: $34.86
STATUS: Flying plateau. ECL continues its 5 week lateral move that is working to consolidate the October breakout from its nice little 16 week cup with handle base. It dipped last week on continued below average volume, tapping at the 50 day EMA (33.89) intraday Thursday before a solid rebound. Looks like a shakeout of the last sellers as the stock posited a modest gain Friday on rising, average volume. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the base is setting the foundation for the next run. Money flow has remained strong and is now moving higher once again ahead of the move. Looks solid.
Volume: 711.8K Avg Volume: 726.952K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$40.38 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: ECL DG - Apr. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 12/07/2004
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.27; +0.08; optionable): Poling and research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: 200 day SMA test. HPOL is working on the right side of its 11 month base. It broke over the 200 day SMA (7.06) to start the month on tremendous volume and is now testing that move, coming back to the 200 day Thursday and starting to rebound Friday. Volume was not there to end the week, however; need to see volume jump as it continues higher this week. Huge money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 259.949K Avg Volume: 251.121K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=400K Target=$8.98 Stop=$7.07
POSITION: HQS DU - Apr. $7.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpol.html
Play Date: 12/08/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$6.16; +0.03; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
After Hours: $6.16
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Another stock starting the work on the right side of its base after a long trend lower. NGEN started the month with a high volume break over the 200 day (5.55), rallied to 7, and is now testing that move on much lower volume, moving laterally in a narrow range at 6. Accumulation in the long base is an excellent 10 to 5, very good for a stock just starting to move up the right side of the base. Money flow continues its run in the atmosphere. Looking for NGEN to follow it higher off of this nice, low volume test.
Volume: 1.008M Avg Volume: 1.147M
BUY POINT: $6.48 Volume=2.6M Target=$7.98 Stop=$6.03
POSITION: QEM CA - Mar. $5c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngen.html
Play Date: 12/08/2004
TKR (Timken--$26.07; -0.31; optionable): Machine tools and accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tkr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle/breakout test. Still moving laterally in the tight range above the 10 day EMA (25.89). Nice handle or test, whatever you want to call it, after its strong volume move higher to end November, the move that broke it out of its 20 week base. Excellent 7 to 3 accumulation and money flow rising sharply ahead of price once more. Just waiting for the resumption of the move on strong volume.
Volume: 336.2K Avg Volume: 347.454K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=580K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.58
POSITION: TKR CE - Mar. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tkr.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$16.40; -0.10; optionable): Application software for capturing customer intelligence (no kidding; we took this right off the profile) and optimizing workforce performance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Cup. We thought WITS might form a handle to its 10 week base before making the big break higher, and it has certainly done that, spending the past week easing back to the 10 day EMA (16.25) on very low, below average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern and solid money flow. Just a matter of time before it makes the breakout.
Volume: 178.724K Avg Volume: 362.727K
BUY POINT: $17.05 Volume=553K Target=$20.75 Stop=$16.15
POSITION: UPJ CW - Mar. $17.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wits.html
New Buy Points on Current Plays:
Play Date: 11/15/2004
DRIV (Digital River--$41.80; +0.54; optionable): Electronic commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DRIV is making another test of the nice breakout and run, easing back to the 18 day EMA (40.53) on very low, below average volume last week, bouncing modestly Friday after showing a doji at that support Thursday. Stellar money flow is still leading higher. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the short term MA before needing to test lower. This is the second test since the breakout, leaving DRIV plenty of upside on this run.
Volume: 462.636K Avg Volume: 960.347K
BUY POINT: New: $42.72 (orig. $38.65) Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$41.22
POSITION: DQI CH - Mar. $40c (53 delta) or DQI CG - Mar. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 11/11/2004
MIPS (Mips Technologies--$8.80; -0.11; no options): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mips.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Pretty much oblivious to the overall semiconductor woes, easing back on low volume for the second test of its late October breakout from a 10 month double bottom with handle base. Another strong, market leading stock that is coming back for a breather and giving us another entry point. It has two or three more such tests ahead of it before it is through with the run.
Volume: 231.001K Avg Volume: 302.09K
BUY POINT: New: $8.92 (orig. $8.67) Volume=347K Target=$10.75 Stop=$8.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mips.html
Play Date: 11/30/2004
STK (Storage Technology--$30.25; +0.01; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent low volume test of the explosive breakout to start the month. STK blasted out of an 11 month base on tremendous trade, rallying over 32 on the first run. It is now holding over the 18 day EMA (29.74), tapping that level on the intraday lows and recovering to close at the 10 day EMA (30.21). Showing a nice doji at that 10 day Friday, an indication that the rebound is ready to start. Money flow remains strong even as the stock tests the move.
Volume: 529.9K Avg Volume: 977.583K
BUY POINT: New: $30.65 (orig. $29.92) Volume=1.4M Target=$35.54 Stop=$29.98
POSITION: STK CF - Mar. $30c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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