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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CERN; CMVT; INFY; ARTI; EASI; MGG; TTC
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/14/2004
CPRT (Copart--$26.88; +1.09; optionable): Auto parts salvage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
After Hours: $27.51
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not sexy, but the sex is in the moves. Tuesday CPRT blasted out of a 22 week base to an all-time closing high. A frequent split announcer in the past, though the last one it popped off was in early 2002 (okay, a little far out for a traditional post-split, but factually accurate). It is getting closer to split price, and this solid pattern and breakout is a great point to enter ahead of a potential announcement down the road.
Volume: 1.05M Avg Volume: 751.398K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$32.45 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: KQJ EE - May $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cprt.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/14/2004
PKI (Perkinelmer--$22.70; +0.81; optionable): Scientific instruments, consumables and services to the pharma, biomedical, environmental testing and chemical markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PKI is making a high volume breakout from its 34 week base. Great price/volume action in the pattern with volume surging as it rallied up in late October to form the right side of the 'head,' then backed off as it moved laterally the past six weeks to form the right shoulder. Strong 10 to 6 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, setting up the foundation for the breakout. It is making the move and we are ready to take positions on a further volume gain and then again on a successful test of that move.
Volume: 1.491M Avg Volume: 842.411K
BUY POINT: $22.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$27.45 Stop=$21.22
POSITION: PKI CX - Mar. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pki.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/07/2004
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.33; +0.08; optionable): Polling and marketing research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: 200 day SMA test. HPOL continues to work laterally over the 200 day (7.05), testing the break above that key level to start the month. Volume has been spiking the past two weeks while money flow continues to surge. Good price move Tuesday, but no volume. Looking for the volume to come in as it continues the move through the buy point.
Volume: 104.942K Avg Volume: 253.708K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=400K Target=$8.98 Stop=$7.07
POSITION: HQS DU - Apr. $7.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hpol.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-04
BMET: Forecast 12-15-04. Looks good, ready to breakout on the news.
BSC: Tentative date: 12-15-04. Nice run but stalling below 106 and we need to be careful on the news.
CHS: Forecast 12-15. Looking for word Wednesday.
CMTL: Researching next date.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Still setting up for next move, a break over 30.
DE: Forecast early 2005. Researching exact date.
DGX: Researching next date, tentatively 1-25-05.
EBAY: Forecast to announce another split in January. Researching the exact date.
EASI: Forecast 12-14-04 before the open. No split announcement but solid results and a gap higher. Looking for a test to move into positions.
FDX: No split announced with the 12-6 board meeting. Still moving higher.
GPN: Forecast 12-16-04. Holding the 50 day EMA nicely. Need to see a volume break through 55.50.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-04.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast mid-January. Researching exact date.
KMRT: Researching date after its announcement of the Sears acquisition
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: No split announced 12-7. Researching next date as it continues the nice move.
MGG: No split announced with the 12-7-04 board meeting. Announced some big earnings and blasted higher. Nice move continues.
SBUX: Researching next date as not announcement with November earnings. Setting up for the next move. Those improving sales were good to see after a couple of slower months.
SPLS: Researching next date.
TTC: No split 12-8-04, but a great gap higher. Racing higher again on strong volume.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-04
WFMI: Forecast late January. Researching exact date.
XRAY: Forecast 12-14-04. Not hearing anything yet on a split.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/14/2004
RGS (Regis--$45.20; -0.05; optionable): Hairstyling and hair care salons. Forecast 1-26-05
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in early 1999 at $40. Prior to that another 3:2 split in June 1996. Long time coming, but this is the first time it is back at this price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up well above average Tuesday as RGS continues to work on the 4 week handle to its 8.5 month base. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) has set the foundation for the breakout, and now the handle is shaking out the last weak holders before it makes the break higher. Tried to make the breakout last week, gapping higher but unable to hold the move. Being patient and letting the handle form up as we watch for the high volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 287.1K Avg Volume: 182.77K
BUY POINT: $45.05 Volume=274K Target=$52.55 Stop=$44.95
POSITION: RGS CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rgs.html
Play Date: 12/14/2004
SNS (Steak N Shake--$19.37; +0.44; no options): Fast food restaurants. Researching exact date as it has been awhile since it last split.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter in the late 1990's with 5 splits from 1996 to 1999, all at roughly $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sns.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was sharply higher Tuesday as SNS broke out of a three week lateral move representing a midpoint handle to its 11 month base. Strong 12 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of net buyers for a stock that is showing very good sales and earnings growth. Strong earnings reported in early November helped break the stock off the bottom of the base. Strong pattern and we are looking at starting positions on a continued move higher.
Volume: 191.4K Avg Volume: 101.318K
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=152K Target=$23.55 Stop=$18.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sns.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
CHS (Chicos Fas--$44; +0.7; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 12-14-04 or 12-15-04 before or during market hours.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-27-02 at $36. Before that it announced splits 12-19-01 (3:2 at $38); 4-19-01 (3:2 at $42); 12-14-99 (2:1 at $43).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Low volume continues as CHS moves laterally, putting the finishing touches on the right shoulder of its 22 week base. Big earnings reported to start the month, solid 6 to 4 accumulation. This low volume lateral move is shaking out the last sellers, setting the higher volume breakout. Just have to be patient.
Volume: 696.4K Avg Volume: 1.561M
BUY POINT: New: $44.49 (orig. $44.11) Volume=2.5M Target=$50.88 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: CHS BI - Feb. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$60.53; -0.28; optionable): Big American made motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split 1-12-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
After Hours: $60.56
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good run higher on volume last week to clear the 'hump' in the pattern and now working laterally on low, below average volume, building a new handle. Nice 14 week base showing strong, rising money flow. Another stock that requires us to be patient, let it form up and then breakout on high volume. Good pattern so we keep running it, looking for the breakout.
Volume: 1.156M Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: $61.05 Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$93.88; +0.24; optionable): Organic foods stores. Forecast in late January. Researching to pinpoint the exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
After Hours: $93.71
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still a very nice lateral move on low volume, holding over the 10 day EMA (92.73), showing a series of nice, tight dojis on the candlestick pattern. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation, and the handle is shaking out the last sellers as it moves laterally below the July high where the base started.
Volume: 726.258K Avg Volume: 903.181K
BUY POINT: $94.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$110 Stop=$92.88
POSITION: FMQ BS - Feb. $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$34.30; +0.03; optionable): Laser vision clinics. Splits 3:2 on 12-16-04.
After Hours: $34.31
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Breakout test. The range is tightening as LCAV continues the low volume lateral move over the 10 day EMA (34.07). After a stock rallies, when it pulls back and then forms a tight range on low volume, that indicates it is about ready to make the next move. The split is effective Thursday, and this one looks as if it will run into and through the split if it can just get a catalyst.
Volume: 96.831K Avg Volume: 275.076K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=350K Target=$41 Stop=$33.82
POSITION: JVQ CG - Mar. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lcav.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$44.04; +0.14; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $43.96
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up to average Tuesday as QCOM toyed with the breakout. Looks as if it is getting ready to make the breakout, but we want to see that volume continue to rally as it does. Nice 8 week base has given it a rest, and if the market continues the break higher we are confident QCOM will make the move and join the action.
Volume: 13.124M Avg Volume: 13.956M
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=20M Target=$53 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: AAO DV - Apr. $42.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$17.72; +0.2; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
After Hours: $17.69
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying to make the rebound off support near 17, but volume has been fading on it the past two sessions, falling back below average after a good volume bump to end last week. MSCC broke out from an 8.5 month double bottom with handle base in mid-November, then rallying up the short term MA. It is making its second test of the breakout. Excellent 13 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows strong net buying that set up the breakout and run. A strong stock can make 4 to 5 bounces off the short term MA after the breakout. Looking for volume to rally as it continues higher.
Volume: 457.475K Avg Volume: 736.318K
BUY POINT: $17.89 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: QMS CW - Mar. $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
TASR (Taser--$27.23; +0.01; optionable): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
After Hours: $27.24
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still watching TASR set up for the next move. It gapped higher Monday but with no volume it faded back. Tuesday it tapped the 18 day EMA (26.56) on the low and then rebounded to close flat. Still low volume. Looking for the volume to surge as it rallies through the buy point. It is tightening up the pattern, showing a tight doji Tuesday over the 18 day. We will be ready for a strong, high volume move from here.
Volume: 4.908M Avg Volume: 18.03M
BUY POINT: $28.69 Volume=21M Target=$34 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: QUR CY - Mar. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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