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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: HPOL; MNST; MTSN; OPWV; MNDO
Best Plays:
1) CENT: Nice breakout starting, heading for a new high.
2) COHR: Lots of momentum and volume.
3) CSTR: Volume is surging as it comes off the 50 day EMA.
4) ACPW: Volume is starting higher.
5) ECL: The stock has not moved, but volume is starting to ramp up.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/15/2004
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$40.60; +1.68; no options): Producer and marketer of branded pet and garden products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
After Hours: $40.66
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Solid volume for CENT Wednesday as it started the breakout from a very nicely formed 8 month base. The handle was very tight and on low volume, just what you want to see. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, setting up the breakout. A market leader but hardly a household name; that typically means there is much more upside for it. Looking to take positions on a further move and then on the first successful test.
Volume: 250.121K Avg Volume: 106.772K
BUY POINT: $40.82 Volume=160K Target=$49.55 Stop=$38.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
Play Date: 12/15/2004
COHR (Coherent--$32.27; +0.98; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. COHR was working well Wednesday, rallying to the breakout on rising, above average volume. Nice 11 month base sporting excellent 12 to 6 accumulation set up the base and the breakout. Excellent money flow is leading the way. Relative strength is ready for the breakout to corroborate the move. Looking to pick up positions on a further break higher and then again on a successful test.
Volume: 221.32K Avg Volume: 143.136K
BUY POINT: $32.42 Volume=200K Target=$39 Stop=$30.72
POSITION: HRQ EF - May $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cohr.html
Play Date: 12/15/2004
CSTR (Coinstar--$26.16; +0.51; optionable): Coin counting machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
After Hours: $26.10
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Exploded higher to end October, rallied a bit and then moved laterally the past six weeks, easing back to test the breakout, holding the 50 day EMA (25.25) as it does. This is part of a much larger 3 year base, but CSTR looks ready for a strong upside move to take it toward a new all-time high at 35. Huge volume Wednesday as CSTR moved up off the 50 day as CSTR priced a common stock offering at $25/share. 2 to 0 accumulation in the easy pullback shows buyers are still picking up the stock. Strong money flow is a good compliment. Looking for a break over the recent highs on strong volume to move into the stock.
Volume: 2.731M Avg Volume: 293.061K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=350K Target=$32.25 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: QLR DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cstr.html
Play Date: 12/15/2004
SEPR (Sepracor--$50.45; +1.84; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sepr.html
After Hours: $50.12
STATUS: Flat base. SEPR has spent the past 9.5 months working in a flat base or trading range between 42.50 and 52.50. This iteration of the move is a bit different with a higher low to start this month. It has worked laterally the past two weeks, holding over the 200 day SMA (47.72) as volume starts to show some nice spikes on upside sessions. Excellent 11 to 5 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers in the base. Good volume surge Wednesday as SEPR jumped off the 200 day. Looking for volume to continue ramping higher as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 3.135M Avg Volume: 1.849M
BUY POINT: $51.42 Volume=2.8M Target=$59.89 Stop=$48.78
POSITION: ERU DJ - Apr. $50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sepr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ACPW (Active Power--$4.60; +0.09; no options): Electric power producing devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acpw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (4.39) after the big surge out of its 10 month base. Strong surge and then a nice, quiet, low volume lateral move the past week. Excellent money flow and accumulation. Just waiting for that strong volume break higher to show us the breakout move is resuming.
Volume: 128.321K Avg Volume: 137.772K
BUY POINT: $4.72 Volume=207K Target=$6.11 Stop=$4.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acpw.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$34.79; -0.11; optionable): Cleaning, sanitizing, pest removal products and services (and more) for just about every industry there is.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume continues to improve over the past two sessions as ECL remains in the tight lateral move at the 18 day EMA (34.82) that is consolidating the October breakout from a nice 16 week cup with handle base. Good 2 to 0 accumulation in the 5 week plateau is setting up the next move along with the money flow rising ahead of the stock.
Volume: 825.5K Avg Volume: 721K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$40.38 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: ECL DG - Apr. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 12/01/2004
IDXC (IDX Systems--$35.40; +0.03; optionable): Healthcare software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IDXC continues its lateral move at the 18 day EMA (35.29), consolidating the breakout from its 9 month double bottom with handle base. Money flow continues to rise as the stock works laterally, a good positive divergence. With the pattern a strong one, we anticipate IDXC following the money higher. Strong 11 to 4 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buyers. Just waiting for those buyers to move back in, deliver a strong volume move, and continue the breakout run.
Volume: 117.385K Avg Volume: 103.987K
BUY POINT: $36.35 Volume=130K Target=$42 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: XQW BG - Feb. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxc.html
New Buy Points on Current Plays:
Play Date: 12/09/2004
AAPL (Apple Computer--$65.26; -0.03; optionable): iPods and iMacs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $65.26
STATUS: Breakout test. AAPL is working laterally on very low volume, holding the 10 day EMA (64.49) after a test of the 18 day EMA (63.03) to start the month. Very tight range is setting up the next bounce higher.
Volume: 7.04M Avg Volume: 12.535M
BUY POINT: $66.12 Volume=15M Target=$76 Stop=$62.05
POSITION: AAQ DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta)) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aapl.html
Play Date: 11/15/2004
DRIV (Digital River--$42.30; +0.81; optionable): Electronic commerce outsourcing solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
After Hours: $42.17
STATUS: Breakout test. Still looking for the next strong break higher as DRIV continues to test the prior strong move, holding the 18 day EMA (40.90) on low, below average volume. Excellent breakout in mid-November and a very nice test. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points. Strong stocks and looking to get even stronger soon.
Volume: 453.843K Avg Volume: 954.133K
BUY POINT: New: $42.72 (orig. $38.65) Volume=1.3M Target=$50 Stop=$41.22
POSITION: DQI CH - Mar. $40c (53 delta) or DQI CG - Mar. $35c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 11/06/2004
EXTR (Extreme Networks--$6.54; +0.11; optionable): Network infrastructure equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/extr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume surged Wednesday, the best since the first day of the month as EXTR moved off the 50 day EMA (6.24) test, trying to break through the 18 day EMA (6.61). 6.61). Good money flow, and we are looking for another high volume move through the 18 day EMA to take some more positions.
Volume: 4.175M Avg Volume: 2.037M
BUY POINT: $6.68 Volume=2.5M Target=$8.68 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: EXJ CA - Mar. $5c (89 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/extr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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