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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CHS; MGG; ATVI; CMTL
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
JOYG (Joy Global--$40.96; +2.61; optionable): Farm construction machinery. Splits 3:2 on -124-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $40.86
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. JOYG has rallied well after breakout out from its 8 month base in mid-September, moving up the 10 and 18 day EMA as a solid stock should. It needed a breather and came back to test and hold the 50 day EMA (37.24), again like a strong stock should. It bounced off that level Monday but volume was low and below average. Volume jumped Wednesday as it sold back some and then really surged Thursday on the announcement and a nice run higher. Gave back half the move after hitting 43.05 on the high. Strong stocks use the 50 day EMA to regroup after a good run; a strong move off of that level sets up the next leg of the run, again up the short term MA. Looking to pick up positions here on a continued upside move.
Volume: 1.847M Avg Volume: 494K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=625K Target=$48 Stop=$39.98
POSITION: JQY DH - Apr. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/joyg.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
PNK (Pinnacle Entertainment--$18.34; +0.94; optionable): Gaming facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PNK is coming off its second test of the late October breakout, bouncing off the 18 day EMA (17.67) on some very strong volume. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces, giving PNK plenty of upside on this move. Outstanding 11 to 1 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the breakout and run. Money flow remains very strong and relative strength is breaking higher again.
Volume: 539.3K Avg Volume: 209.59K
BUY POINT: $18.55 Volume=300K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.53
POSITION: PNK CW - Mar. $17.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnk.html
Play Date: 12/16/2004
PRFT (Perficient--$6.65; +0.34; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
After Hours: $6.60
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume is surging as PRFT continues the breakout move. An excellent 9 month cup with handle base set up the late October blast higher to 6.50. It moved laterally for two weeks on lower volume and then started rallying again Thursday on that strong shot of volume. Excellent 10 to 3 accumulation in the base set up the breakout and this run. This is the first test of the move, and one of our favorite entry points. Looking to move in on a further volume move higher through the buy point.
Volume: 425.234K Avg Volume: 157.318K
BUY POINT: $6.74 Volume=236K Target=$8.21 Stop=$6.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/09/2004
CREAF (Creative Technology--$14.51; +0.13; optionable): The other iPod maker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/creaf.html
After Hours: $14.47
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout test. Nice lower volume test of the November breakout from its 9 month base. Volume exploded in November as it ran higher, tapping 16 on the run. It has now come back to the 18 day EMA (14.18), a typical support level on breakout tests of strong stocks. Volume was up Thursday as CREAF came off the 18 day EMA, a good sign that buyers are stepping back in after this initial pullback to shakeout the quick profit takers. Looking to step in on a continued bounce on even stronger volume.
Volume: 718.522K Avg Volume: 392.109K
BUY POINT: New: 14.75 (orig. $15.68) Volume=1M Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.95
POSITION: RFQ DC - Apr. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/creaf.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-04
BMET: No split announcement on 12-15-04. Looked good until it announced earnings. It gapped lower, sold further, then sold some more Thursday. Never gave us the entry point, one reason in this current market we like to see the move start before we commit our money.
BSC: No split announced on our tentative date of 12-15-04. Setting up very nicely for the next break higher with this low volume test of the 10 day EMA.
CHS: Forecast 12-15. No split news but a nice move higher, good enough to start a position.
CME: Researching next date. Tentatively in mid-January.
CMTL: Researching next date. Made a nice volume break higher. Have to like that while we dig for the next potential split date.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Still getting ready for that next move.
DE: Forecast early 2005. Researching exact date.
DGX: Researching next date, tentatively 1-25-05. Had to exit with a decent gain Wednesday as it dipped lower on volume. Will let it set back up.
EBAY: Forecast to announce another split in January. Researching the exact date.
EASI: No split 12-14-04. Strong gap higher and still looking for that test to give us an entry point.
FDX: Took a nice gain Wednesday.
GPN: Forecast 12-16-04. No split announced but a nice tight doji at the 50 day EMA.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-04.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast mid-January. Researching exact date.
KMRT: Researching date after its announcement of the Sears acquisition
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: Researching next date as it continues the nice move.
MGG: Researching next date as no split announced with the 12-7-04 board meeting. Still a tremendous move higher from another leader.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-04
SBUX: Researching next date as not announcement with November earnings. Working laterally on low volume over the 18 day EMA.
SNS: Researching next date.
SPLS: Researching next date. Continues to climb up the 10 day EMA.
TTC: Maybe took some gain prematurely. If it tests 75 (the 18 day EMA) and bounces that will be another entry point.
UPS: Forecast in mid-January. Researching exact date.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-04
WFMI: Forecast late January. Researching exact date.
XRAY: No split 12-14-04. Continuing the move higher.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$124.50; -0.50; optionable): High end auto audio. Forecast 1-26-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 10-2-03 at $98. Prior to that, announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-16-00 at a stock price of $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. HAR is coming off the 50 day EMA (118.54), showing some strong volume Wednesday as it posted a solid move. Volume faded Thursday as HAR took a breather with the rest of the market, but it held the 18 day EMA (122.92) on the low and rebounded to recoup most of the loss. Ready to continue the move. Can run like the wind when it gets started.
Volume: 413.4K Avg Volume: 598.025K
BUY POINT: $125.65 Volume=800K Target=$136 Stop=$122.48
POSITION: HAR DE - Apr. $125c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/14/2004
RGS (Regis--$45.09; -0.65; optionable): Hairstyling and hair care salons. Forecast 1-26-05
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in early 1999 at $40. Prior to that another 3:2 split in June 1996. Long time coming, but this is the first time it is back at this price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried to make the move Wednesday but Thursday volume fell sharply below average and RGS fell back to support at 45. Still in a good handle to its 8.5 month base sporting solid 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow is leading higher. All we are waiting for is the break through the buy point on strong volume.
Volume: 125.5K Avg Volume: 185.353K
BUY POINT: $45.05 Volume=274K Target=$52.55 Stop=$44.95
POSITION: RGS CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rgs.html
Play Date: 12/14/2004
SNS (Steak N Shake--$19.23; -0.32; no options): Fast food restaurants. Researching exact date as it has been awhile since it last split.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter in the late 1990's with 5 splits from 1996 to 1999, all at roughly $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sns.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. That strong volume died off Wednesday and Thursday and SNS backed off from the breakout. It is making an abrupt test of the Tuesday move out of its 11 month base. May come back to 19 and then rebound, but we want to be ready for a continuation move that gives us the entry point. Strong 12 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of net buyers for a stock that is showing very good sales and earnings growth. Strong earnings reported in early November helped break the stock off the bottom of the base.
Volume: 53.2K Avg Volume: 105.727K
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=152K Target=$23.55 Stop=$18.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sns.html
Current plays, new buy points:
Play Date: 11/22/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$222.5; -1.59; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: CME has not split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
STATUS: Test short term MA. CME is pulling back toward the 10 day EMA (219.09) on very low, below average volume, making the third test of the 10/18 day EMA since its September breakout. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces, and CME is definitely a strong stock. It may come all the way back to the 10 day near 220 before it is ready to make the next move. That would provide an excellent entry point when it bounces from that level. This stock can run like the wind, and these bounces from the short term MA give us good entry point.s
Volume: 270.7K Avg Volume: 737.681K
BUY POINT: New: Test $220, then $221 on the rebound (orig. $203.68) Volume=950K Target=New positions: $235 (orig. positions: $224.89) Stop=$224.35
POSITION: CMJ CD - Mar. $220c (43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 10/09/2004
UPS (United Parcel Service--$85.90; -0.35; optionable): Brown shipping. Forecast to announce a split on 1-20-05 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: UPS has never split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ups.html
After Hours: $85.98
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA (85.46). UPS is making its third test of the 18 day EMA after its September breakout from an 11 month base. A long base that set up this strong move. It has eased back to test the 18 day EMA, showing a nice doji Thursday as volume climbed well above average. Strong money flow is still leading the way higher. Looking for UPS to resume the move and give us another entry point.
Volume: 3.02M Avg Volume: 2.401M
BUY POINT: New positions: $86.38 (orig. $76.75) Volume=2.1M Target=$100 (orig. positions: $82.75) Stop=$85.72
POSITION: UPS DQ - Apr. $85c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ups.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
TASR (Taser--$27.31; +0.03; optionable): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
After Hours: $27.35
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continuing its lateral, flat move over the 10 day EMA (27) on very low, below average volume. Over the past four weeks the pattern has narrowed and has formed this tight lateral range at the midpoint of the range. It make take a few days to finish the move, but TASR can take off like the wind at a any point. That is has settled down into this quiet range has us ready.
Volume: 5.313M Avg Volume: 18.166M
BUY POINT: $28.69 Volume=21M Target=$34 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: QUR CY - Mar. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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