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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: HPOL; LACO; PNK; UTX; SNS
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/18/2004
KNGT (Knight Transportation--$24.44; +0.23; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kngt.html
After Hours: $24.35
STATUS: Double bottom/rectangle. KNGT is moving laterally over the 50 day EMA (23.31) on mostly below average volume, forming up a 6 week pattern and showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation and money flow that has started to turn higher ahead of stock price. The transportation stocks have perked up and are forming up for their next moves. Looking for a volume breakout from the lateral range.
Volume: 250.915K Avg Volume: 264.971K
BUY POINT: $25.05 Volume=350K Target=$30 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: GVL CW - Mar. $23.38c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kngt.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/15/2004
CSTR (Coinstar--$25.80; -0.03; optionable): Automated coin counting machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
After Hours: $25.81
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CSTR continues to move laterally above the 50 day EMA (25.50), testing the explosive breakout to end October. The current 6 week lateral move above the 50 day is part of a much larger 3 year base, but CSTR looks ready for a strong upside move to take it toward a new all-time high at 35. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the easy pullback shows buyers are still picking up the stock. Money flow, already strong, has shot higher even as the stock has moved laterally and lower. Looking for a break over the recent highs on strong volume to move into the stock.
Volume: 224.396K Avg Volume: 331.045K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=350K Target=$32.25 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: QLR DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cstr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05
BSC: Forecast 12-21 before the open.
CHS: No split on 12-15. Looking at 3-2-05 as a tentative next date.
CME: Researching next date. Tentatively in mid-January.
CMTL: Researching next date as it makes a nice rally higher.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Continues to set up for the next move.
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Strong volume Friday as it rallied back but still below the 18 December 2004.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05
EASI: No split 12-14-04. Still looking for a test of that strong gap higher.
FDX: Impressive comeback from the Thursday gap lower.
GPN: Forecast 12-22-04 after the close.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Nice test above 10 day EMA. Researching next potential date.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/18/2004
PFCB (PF Changs--$56.21; +0.26; optionable): Chinese restaurant chains. Forecast to announce a split in January 2005. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split, a 2:1, on 4-3-04 at $64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A very nice low volume lateral move over the 18 December 2004 (56.07) as PFCB tests the early November breakout from its 7 month cup with handle base. It ran well up to 58 and has spent this month making the lateral and lower move, testing the breakout. Money flow has remained strong and Friday volume edged back to average as it held the 18 day. Looking for stronger volume as it surges through the buy point.
Volume: 389.97K Avg Volume: 424.686K
BUY POINT: $57.32 Volume=637K Target=$65 Stop=$55.89
POSITION: HUO DK - Apr. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
GOOG (Google--$180.08; +3.61; optionable): Internet search, etc. Forecast after the first of the year, tentatively with earnings on 2-1-05.
BACKGROUND: No splits but has surged to near $200. Management has a 'small investor' mindset, and at $200 not many small investors can participate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $180.02
STATUS: Pennant. GOOG is moving laterally in its first base, an 8 week job at this juncture. Volume backed off in late November and early December, showing more trade this past week as it moved off some support at 170, stepping higher in the pattern as it gets ready for the next leg. It could spend a lot more time forming a full cup base, but this volume suggests that the stock may be ready to make its next move higher. At this level we are looking at options and will let the play run as long as it will; $210 is just the initial target.
Volume: 7.418M Avg Volume: 10.743M
BUY POINT: $181.25 Volume=12M Target=$210 Stop=$175
POSITION: GOU CP - Mar. $180c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/goog.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
CRDN (Ceradyne--$52.3; -0.94; optionable): Industrial equipment. Tentatively forecast for 1-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split (3:2) on 3-11-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
After Hours: $52.59
STATUS: Breakout test. CRDN has been on a rampage, breaking out in June, testing deeper in that August market dip, then rallying solidly the past 3.5 months. This is its second test to the 18 December 2004 (51.59) following its 50 day EMA test (48.30) test in early November that reset the run. Looking for volume to jump as it comes off the 18 December 2004.
Volume: 648.231K Avg Volume: 611.699K
BUY POINT: $53.05 Volume=775K Target=$64 Stop=$51.38
POSITION: AUE CK - Mar. $55c 946 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
MKC (McCormick & Company--$38.61; +0.51; optionable): The spice company. Tentatively forecast in mid-February but working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-19-02 at $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
STATUS: Breakout. Volume was up last week as MKC made a nice breakout from its 5 seek lateral flying plateau that formed after the early November breakout from a 14 week ascending base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout. We are looking to move into the stock on a continued run and then add to positions on a successful test. It may seem rather mundane, but the moves it makes are there for all to see.
Volume: 681.7K Avg Volume: 356.181K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=400K Target=$46.48 Stop=$37.52
POSITION: MKC CG - Mar. $35c (98 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mkc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$125.61; +1.11; optionable): High end auto audio. Forecast 1-26-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 10-2-03 at $98. Prior to that, announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-16-00 at a stock price of $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped above average Friday as HAR moved right up to the buy point. It is coming off a 50 day EMA (118.82) test after an explosive blast higher to end October and begin April. It looks set to start the move again. This one can run like a deer (the real ones) when it gets started.
Volume: 762K Avg Volume: 595.886K
BUY POINT: $125.65 Volume=800K Target=$136 Stop=$122.48
POSITION: HAR DE - Apr. $125c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Current plays, new buy points:
Play Date: 11/22/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$220.56; -1.94; optionable): Commodities, securities, currency, etc. trading. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: CME has not split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
STATUS: Test short term MA. CME has now made the 10 day EMA (219.36) test, tapping that level Friday and then rebounding on a bit better volume. It has walked up the 18 December 2004 since breaking out in late September. This is its third test of the short term MA on this run, and strong stocks have 4 to 5 such tests before they need more rest. A bit more aggressive, but the way this one runs we can make a nice profit here with some more positions on top of our current ones.
Volume: 390K Avg Volume: 741.59K
BUY POINT: New: $221.25 on the rebound (orig. $203.68) Volume=950K Target=New positions: $235 (orig. positions: $224.89) Stop=$224.35
POSITION: CMJ CD - Mar. $220c (43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Play Date: 10/09/2004
UPS (United Parcel Service--$85.90; 0.00; optionable): Brown shipping. Forecast to announce a split on 1-20-05 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: UPS has never split its stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ups.html
After Hours: $85.90
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA (85.51). Undercut the 18 day Friday when it gapped lower, but it rallied back, closing flat and hold the 18 day support on the close. UPS is making its third test of the 18 day EMA after its September breakout from an 11 month base. Volume shot higher Friday on the wilder action, but the end was good. Strong money flow, and we are looking for a continuation of the Friday reversal on more good volume to take some new positions.
Volume: 3.969M Avg Volume: 2.424M
BUY POINT: New positions: $86.38 (orig. $76.75) Volume=2.1M Target=$100 (orig. positions: $82.75) Stop=$85.72
POSITION: UPS DQ - Apr. $85c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ups.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
JOYG (Joy Global--$40.65; -0.31; optionable): Farm construction machinery. Splits 3:2 on -124-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $40.86
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the big surge Thursday, JOYG took a breather Friday on lower, slightly below average volume. T recap: JOYG has rallied well after breakout out from its 8 month base in mid-September, moving up the 10 and 18 day EMA as a solid stock should. It needed a breather and came back to test and hold the 50 day EMA (37.37), again like a strong stock should. It bounced off that level last week but volume was low and below average. Volume jumped Thursday on the split announcement. Strong stocks use the 50 day EMA to regroup after a good run; a strong move off of that level sets up the next leg of the run, again up the short term MA. After that Friday breather JOYG looks ready.
Volume: 490.302K Avg Volume: 534.772K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=625K Target=$48 Stop=$39.98
POSITION: JQY DH - Apr. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/joyg.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/08/2004
CEDC (Central European District--$28.56; +0.16; no options): Polish liquor imports. That is no joke.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Okay. CEDC has showed some strong spurts this month, breaking out from its 21 week double bottom with handle to start December. A quick test and it bounced again. Now it is fading back toward the 10 day EMA (27.85) once more as volume dries up as it should. Friday it held above the 10 day and posted a modest gain. Looking for volume to kick in once more as CEDC moves through the adjusted buy point. Looks very good with strong accumulation and money flow leading higher ahead of price.
Volume: 154.593K Avg Volume: 173.227K
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=250K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
TASR (Taser--$27.22; -0.09; optionable): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
After Hours: $27.10
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Waiting for a zap of volume to shock TASR into a strong break higher. It ahs moved laterally in a narrow range the past four sessions on low, low volume. Friday it tapped the 18 day EMA (26.76) on the low and rebounded to hold the narrow range. Nice ongoing consolidation inside the 6 week handle to its 8 month base. Another stock that runs like the wind, a deer, or a goose that found a pile of earthworms. Quiet action typically precedes the break higher.
Volume: 4.741M Avg Volume: 18.247M
BUY POINT: $28.69 Volume=21M Target=$34 Stop=$26.97
POSITION: QUR CY - Mar. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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