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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 3 of 3
CONTINUED PLAYS:
BREAKOUT TO A NEW HIGH (or getting ready to):
OMG (Om Group--$65.05; -0.47; no options): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omg.html
STATUS: OMG broke out from its cup with handle last week, and has made a couple of steady pullbacks and moves up. It most recent move hit a high of 66.70 Monday, and has pulled back slightly from there, today trying a move up to 66.50 before puling back on strong volume (123,500; average 101,400). Off of this pattern we could get a test of the 10 day MVA (64.20), but has been strong (compared to many of the breakout moves we have seen lately), and we will look for it to mount a continuation of the move. A breach of the 10 day could spell trouble, however. Our target is 73-76.
BUY POINT: Pullback: A move back over 65.50 after holding 64 on a lower-volume pullback. Stop: 63.75.
POSITION: Stock.
TESTING THE BREAKOUT:
Continued Plays:
AOC (Aon--$37.59; -0.36; optionable): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aoc.html
STATUS: AOC has been pulling back off the August high of 39.30 it reached after a nice breakout early in the month (that took it over its February high in the left side of a saucer). It is struggling a bit now to hold its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 38.06 and 37.77). After gapping through the 18 day Tuesday, it recovered a bit, but turned back down from the 10 day today. Volume was light, however, at 452,000 today (average 904,500). We will see if it can hold on and try a move back up. The high in the pattern is 39.30, with the high in the left side of a large cup (October 2000 high of 42.31). We will look at that target initially if we can get a move.
BUY POINT: 39.43, on volume in the range of 1.3 million. Stop: 38.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $35 calls to buy (AOC JG).
KNDL (Kendle Intl--$20.36; +0.15; optionable): Drug
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kndl.html
STATUS: In a pullback and moving laterally above the 18 day MVA (19.98; 10 day at 20.26). KNDL tried a move up today, hitting 20.75 but pulling back to close, and moving on weak volume of 52,200 (average 75,500). Still showing solid action, so we are looking for it to hold the pattern and make a breakout move over 21.35. Excellent money flow and buying. Initial target: 25.
BUY POINT: Over 21.35 on volume of 100,000 or higher. Stop: 20.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $17.50 calls to buy (KQR KW; 76 open interest).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.
Ascending wedges:
Continued:
CHRW (C.H.Robinson Worldwide--$30.75; +0.89; optionable): Transportation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge, but CHRW pulled back after its failed breakout attempt last week, finding support at its prior lows and 50 day MVA (29.77). It tapped all the way down near 29 Tuesday (200 day MVA at 28.78), but surged back up on good volume, and continued the strength today, moving back over its short-term MVA's (10 day at 30.56). Volume was slightly down but remained strong at 371,900 (average 212,300). Looking for continued strength and another try at a breakout. Target: 36.
BUY POINT: 31.72 on continued strong volume. Stop: 30.50 (18 day MVA). Aggressive: Over 31 on continued strong volume. Stop: 30.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $25 calls to buy (CJQ KE).
Pennants: CPC, on the Thursday update, is still holding the pennant, but on strong, above average volume Friday could not make it up to the upper resistance in the pattern. We will watch it from here (buy point is 20.28 on volume of 147,000).
STE (Steris Corporation--$19.98; -0.85; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ste.html
STATUS: Some serious selling as STE dropped through its 50 day MVA (29.77) today. It is in the range of support from its July lows, but has given up the pattern, so we are dropping for now.
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
Continued:
GOTO (Goto.Com--$20.85; -1.65; optionable): Internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goto.html
STATUS: Sold back through the support of its 50 day MVA (21.90) today. It had been moving in an extended handle to a June-July cup pattern, holding up pretty well before today's fall. Volume was up but not huge at 562,600 (average 895,500), so we will see if we get a quick recovery from the support of its July range. However, it initially could fall tomorrow with the market before trying to come back. If it moves back up and fails at the 50 day and sell back down hard, we can take what it gives us and work it as a downside play. Target: 16.60 (initial, although we will watch the July lows at 18; 200 day at 15.05).
BUY POINT: We will need to see a quick recovery if it is going to salvage the upside play (breakout 25.28). Downside: After a failed test of the 50 day, a drop back through 20.50 on above average volume.
POSITION: October $30 puts to buy (GUO VF; low open interests).
PUT PLAYS: IFIN gave us a good move down Monday. Please check with your broker in order to get the best deltas on put options (0.70 or higher).
OEX (Standard & Poors--$586.34; -7.79; optionable (OEY):
STATUS: Headed down for the second day, and posting a new low for the month at 585.63. We are looking for more selling in the morning (due to the SUNW report), and are looking for support in the 578-582 range where we would take profits on existing plays. From there the index can bounce back up to resistance at 590 to 594 and once there, we will look at playing the index back down when the move stalls. Look for rising volume on the move back down to the previous support. Volume 966,200 (avg. 1.1 million).
BUY POINT: On a move back down from resistance at 590-594, on preferably rising volume.
POSITION: September $600 puts to buy (OEY UT). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing; please check with your broker in the morning.
DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$100.91; -1.31; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: Dropped to a new August low of 100.76. We are looking for another drop on some early selling Thursday morning, which could take the index to 99-100. From there we will look for a bounce back up to the previous low at 101.21 or on up to 102 or today's intraday high at 102.57. If it stalls at either level we will look at playing the index back down to 99-100 again. Volume was lower at 966,200 (avg. 1.1 million).
BUY POINT: After a bounce back up to resistance at 101.21 or 102-102.50 and stalling there, on a move back down on renewed selling.
POSITION: October $104 puts to buy (DJV VZ). Deltas unavailable at the time of this writing; please check with your broker in the morning.
IFIN (Investors Fin Svcs--$64.40; -0.05; optionable): Assets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ifin.html
STATUS: After tanking we were looking for a relief bounce, and IFIN made that move Tuesday, running back up and hitting 65.25 at its high. Today it followed with a doji on lower volume (263,200; average 304,000), and it could be ready to turn back down and continue the selling. The Monday low was 61.80, but we will continue to look for a drop back through 62.50 for new or additional positions on a ride down to the initial target of 59.
BUY POINT: A move through 62.50 on increased volume. Stop: 66.
POSITION: October $80 puts to buy (FLQ VP; delta of -0.40 at the time of this writing).
TCB (Tcf Financial--$45.27; -1.26; optionable): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tcb.html
STATUS: After giving up the 50 day MVA (47.28) Monday, it tried a test Tuesday and came in with a doji. As suspected, it could not hold on and plunged today, dropping on huge volume (1.2 million; average 352,000) and taking out our buy point. It hit a low of 44.50 today before coming back up a bit to close, but the momentum is decidedly down, and for new or added positions we can see if it tries the 46-47 level again, and play the drop back down. Our target is the 200 day MVA (41.50).
BUY POINT: New positions: After a move up to the 46-47 level, a drop back through 44.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.
POSITION: October $50 puts to buy (TCB VJ; low open interests).
COF (Capital One--$56.68; -0.72; optionable): Credit Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cof.html
STATUS: Has been steadily dropping back from its 200 day MVA (60.70), the last two sessions continuing down through June-July lows and taking out our buy point. It tapped 56.08 at its low today, with volume that remained above average at 1.79 million (average 1.65 million). We will continue with positions down toward the target of 51, although we could get a weak reflex bounce at some point after all this selling. If we get it from here, we will look at a test of the 58 range, and can enter additional or new positions on a continued fall back on strong volume.
BUY POINT: After a bounce that fails in the 57-58 range, a drop back through 56 on continued strong volume. Stop: 61.
POSITION: October $65 puts to buy (COF VM; 93 open interests).
Continued Puts:
CERS (Cerus--$56.75; -0.39; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cers.html
STATUS: Has been trending down since early July, and fighting the 200 day MVA (60.59), and most recently the 10 day (58.86), on rather volatile volume for much of the past three weeks. CERS hit our aggressive put buy point Tuesday, but still has not taken a hard drop toward the recent low near 55. It gapped up today before falling back to close on decreasing volume of 152,100, (average 111,600). From here, we are looking for increased volume and a sustained move down through the 55 level for new positions. On that move, we are targeting 50.
BUY POINT: A drop back through 55.50 on increased volume. Stop: 200 day MVA.
POSITION: October $65 puts to buy (CEQ VM; very low open interest).
DIGE (Digene--$28.80; +0.80; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dige.html
STATUS: Fell back from the 200 day MVA (30.27) earlier this week, and after hitting our buy point for puts, continued down through 27 yesterday, caught itself and pulled up to close on increased, above average volume. The stock continued on up today on lighter, but still strong, volume of 130,900 (average 120,200). A decent bounce, but it could not break through resistance at the 10 day MVA (29.35). DIGE has a lot of resistance above it (including its down trendline connecting June-August closing highs, at the 200 day), so we will look for a continued attempt to push up to ultimately fail and triggers a new put play. Target: 25.
BUY POINT: From here: A move down through 27.50 on increased volume. After a failed test of the 30 level, a move down through 28 on increased volume.
POSITION: December $40 puts to buy (QDG XH; 0 open interests).
MSCC (Microsemi--$27.75; +0.92; optionable): Chip
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: After strong selling took it through the 50 day MVA (30.07) two weeks ago, MSCC is now pushing up against resistance at the 10 day MVA (28.85) as it moved in a lateral consolidation. We have been looking for stronger selling to drive the stock down through the recent lows and trigger a put play, but the lows at 26.26 are still holding. Today showed little change, as once again, MSCC tapped the 10 day and fell back , on decreased volume of 1.82 million (average 830,000). The stock split Wednesday, and we often look for weakness following that event, so we will continue to look for a strong push down. Target: 200 day MVA (22.50)
BUY POINT: Below 26.26 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: October $35 puts to buy (QMS VG; 0 open interests).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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