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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: INFY; SMDI
Weekend play results:
AMMD: Continued solid volume. Backed off the high but still solid.
GOOG: Good initial move on improved volume.
HURC: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA.
KNGT: Still holding the 18 day EMA on low volume.
PFCB: Another nice, quiet session on the 18 day EMA.
STN: Tried the run above the short term MA but then turned back down.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/20/2004
CYT (Cytec--$49.82; +0.72; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Monday, moving back above average as CYT moved toward the breakout from its 17 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers as CYT sets up for the breakout to take it to an all-time high. Has not been near this level since 1998, and that means there are no holders ready to dump the stock as it makes the breakout. The base formed along the 50 day EMA (47.91), a good indication of strong institutional support.
Volume: 418.4K Avg Volume: 373K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=560K Target=$58 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: CYT EJ - May $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cyt.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
IMDC (Inamed--$62.65; +0.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
After Hours: $62.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very pretty 24 week base that is now forming a very tight, quiet handle. This is the point where the last sellers get frustrated as the stock appears to stall just before it reaches the old high. Fearing another sell off the last buyers at that price sell out. Once they are gone the buyers who accumulated the stock during the base take over. We know there were more buyers because accumulation in the base was a strong 8 to 3. Very low volume in the handle indicates very few sellers. Solid money flow. Looking for the volume to kick back in on a strong break higher.
Volume: 168.914K Avg Volume: 381.136K
BUY POINT: $63.59 Volume=572K Target=$73.65 Stop=$61.55
POSITION: UZI DM - Apr. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/imdc.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$7.27; +0.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
After Hours: $7.25
STATUS: Test breakout. Has set up again after we got shaken out earlier with a decent gain. After surging 6 sessions back, NGEN has tested on low volume, holding at some support at 7. It continues to work on the right side of its 12 month cup base, building up the right side of the pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and accumulation is solid at 13 to 7. Looking for a strong volume move up off of this test with volume jumping back above average on the move.
Volume: 1.877M Avg Volume: 1.626M
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$9.35 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: QEM CU - Mar. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ngen.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
VSAT (Viasat--$22.41; -0.44; optionable): Digital satellite communications, wireless networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Double bottom. VSAT has formed a double bottom off the lows of a 10 month base, breaking out Thursday on a strong volume surge. It has come back slightly on lower volume the past two sessions, holding most of the gains after the break over the 200 day SMA (21.58) last week. Accumulation in the base is a strong 19 to 6, showing solid buying during the base. Looking for the volume to kick back in as the stock continues the breakout move.
Volume: 177.027K Avg Volume: 166.136K
BUY POINT: $23.32 Volume=249K Target=$27.97 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: IQS EX - May. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsat.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/20/2004
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$18.24; -1.43; optionable): Alternative energy products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
STATUS: Put. After a nice run after an October breakout, ENER has reversed and sold on a couple of high volume sessions. After the first big drop the first week of December, ENER held the 50 day EMA (18.96), working laterally as it tried to regroup. Monday that regrouping fell apart as ENER fell through the 50 day on rising, average volume. Things continue to take a turn for the worse. We are looking at taking positions on an additional drop from here, or if it bounces up to test the 50 day first, all the better. Does not have to drop very far for us to lock in a nice 40+% gain.
Volume: 479.6K Avg Volume: 475K
BUY POINT: $18.11 Volume=500K Target=$16 Stop=$18.95
POSITION: EQI ND - Feb. $20p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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