|
|
stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) NGEN: Setting up well for the next move.
2) CYT: Nice volume as CYT starts toward the breakout.
3) IMDC: Like the momentum and the resumption of volume.
4) ANN: Starting the next leg lower.
5) AMMD: Still look solid, ready to break higher.
6) ACPW: Volume still strong as it tries the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/20/2004
BOOM (Dynamic Materials--$13.52; +1.82; no options): Explosive metallurgical bonding, cladding
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/boom.html
After Hours: $14.10
STATUS: Breakout test. An explosive stock move to accompany its business methodology in November sent the stock over 16. It spent December fading back to test the move, holding the mid-November highs near 11.30 and rebounding Monday on a strong shot of above average volume. Pure momentum but momentum with a lot of volume and money flow surging higher ahead of price. Looking to step in on a further move higher catch the momentum. Does not have to even take out the prior highs to make us a nice gain. If it goes further, great.
Volume: 1.361M Avg Volume: 867.409K
BUY POINT: $13.65 Volume=1M Target=$16.72 Stop=$12.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/boom.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
CYT (Cytec--$49.82; +0.72; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Monday, moving back above average as CYT moved toward the breakout from its 17 week base. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers as CYT sets up for the breakout to take it to an all-time high. Has not been near this level since 1998, and that means there are no holders ready to dump the stock as it makes the breakout. The base formed along the 50 day EMA (47.91), a good indication of strong institutional support.
Volume: 418.4K Avg Volume: 373K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=560K Target=$58 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: CYT EJ - May $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cyt.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
IMDC (Inamed--$62.65; +0.03; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
After Hours: $62.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very pretty 24 week base that is now forming a very tight, quiet handle. This is the point where the last sellers get frustrated as the stock appears to stall just before it reaches the old high. Fearing another sell off the last buyers at that price sell out. Once they are gone the buyers who accumulated the stock during the base take over. We know there were more buyers because accumulation in the base was a strong 8 to 3. Very low volume in the handle indicates very few sellers. Solid money flow. Looking for the volume to kick back in on a strong break higher.
Volume: 168.914K Avg Volume: 381.136K
BUY POINT: $63.59 Volume=572K Target=$73.65 Stop=$61.55
POSITION: UZI DM - Apr. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imdc.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$7.27; +0.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
After Hours: $7.25
STATUS: Test breakout. Has set up again after we got shaken out earlier with a decent gain. After surging 6 sessions back, NGEN has tested on low volume, holding at some support at 7. It continues to work on the right side of its 12 month cup base, building up the right side of the pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and accumulation is solid at 13 to 7. Looking for a strong volume move up off of this test with volume jumping back above average on the move.
Volume: 1.877M Avg Volume: 1.626M
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$9.35 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: QEM CU - Mar. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/20/2004
ANN (Ann Taylor--$20.60; -0.20; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
STATUS: Put. Has had a hard holiday season and basically a hard 2004. ANN broke hard in August, when it failed to recapture the 200 day SMA. It has trended lower since, moving below the 50 day EMA (22.26) as that level acted as resistance for any upside rebound. This month ANN managed to rally back to the 18 day EMA (21.36) on lower and lower volume. Monday it broke lower as volume started to move back up. A stair step move lower. There is some support at 18, and that is our target on this move. That would make us a nice 55%ish gain.
Volume: 1.204M Avg Volume: 1.9M
BUY POINT: $20.45 Volume=1.6M Target=$18 Stop=$21.12
POSITION: ANN MX - Feb. $22.50c (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ann.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ACPW (Active Power--$4.61; -0.14; no options): Electric power producing devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acpw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ACPW is toying with the next move higher, showing some solid volume the past three sessions. Tried the move again Monday but volume was lower and it could not hold the move. Still looks good in its four week lateral move testing the breakout from its 10 month cup base. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price, and we are still expecting ACPW to follow it.
Volume: 159.044K Avg Volume: 147.318K
BUY POINT: New: $4.78 (orig. $4.72) Volume=207K Target=$6.15 Stop=$4.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acpw.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.62; +0.35; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $40.53
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was solid once more Monday, but AMMD was fading after the initial strong move. Still held some of the gain and remains solid in its 6 week base (3 to 0 accumulation). Looking for a continued move to enter positions.
Volume: 400.013K Avg Volume: 335.772K
BUY POINT: New: $40.72 (orig. $40.55) Volume=450K Target=$48 Stop=$38.65
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ammd.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
CRGN (Curagen--$7.07; -0.21; optionable): Genomic-based pharmaceutical development
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crgn.html
After Hours: $7.07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very low volume continues as CRGN tests the 18 day EMA (7) at the bottom of the 3 week handle to its 11 month base. Money flow continues to rally ahead of price, and we expect the stock to follow the money higher.
Volume: 138.747K Avg Volume: 378.636K
BUY POINT: $7.78 Volume=542K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: CQX DU - Apr. $7.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crgn.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$34.56; +0.24; optionable): Environmental cleaning (pest control, etc.) for various industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume has started to rally the past week as the stock tests the 50 day EMA (34.06). That indicates more buyers stepping in to support the stock at this important level. Money flow remains strong as it makes this test. Looking for a strong volume move through the buy point to enter. Excellent strength in the market.
Volume: 681.3K Avg Volume: 783.272K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$40.38 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: ECL DG - Apr. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$6.05; -0.14; no options): Blood processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very low volume continued Monday as KOOL put some further touches on the handle to its 11 month base. Excellent 13 to 6 accumulation shows plenty of buying during the base and money flow remains strong , leading higher ahead of price. Again, a breakout takes it to a new all-time high where there is open space to run as opposed to PO'd shareholders ready to jettison it.
Volume: 81.929K Avg Volume: 243.636K
BUY POINT: $6.54 Volume=350K Target=$7.89 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kool.html
Play Date: 12/16/2004
VNWK (Visual Networks--$3.63; -0.1; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vnwk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Finished the day lower, but so was volume as VNWK tested the 18 day EMA (3.55) and rebounded to recoup some losses. Nice handle to the 9.5 month base sporting solid 10 to 7 accumulation. Like that it held the 18 day on the low and rebounded. Being patient and waiting for the upside break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 135.366K Avg Volume: 143.636K
BUY POINT: $3.95 Volume=202K Target=$4.88 Stop=$3.67
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vnwk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock option
|
