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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CREAF; JOYG; PLCE; CME; CMTL; KMRT; MGG
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
FLIR (Flir Systems--$60.50; +0.63; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 2-3-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
After Hours: $60.52
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a strong move to end last week on the announcement, FLIR is moving laterally on much lower, below average volume this week. It may take a couple more sessions to set up the handle; we will be patient while it makes this move, looking for the next break higher as it starts its pre-split run.
Volume: 250.166K Avg Volume: 520.59K
BUY POINT: $61.12 Volume=700K Target=$67 Stop=$59.98
POSITION: FFQ DL - Apr. $60c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$69.00; +0.40; optionable): Customer data solutions. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NCE is moving laterally and lower the past week, easing toward the 10 day EMA (67.87) on lower, below average volume. This follows a strong move higher October to December after breaking out from a 12 week cup with handle base. Nice pullback to test the breakout and looking for NCE to regroup here for the next move higher pre-split.
Volume: 696.8K Avg Volume: 997.727K
BUY POINT: $69.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$78 Stop=$67.85
POSITION: NCR BN - Feb. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
HLEX (Healthextras--$16.06; +0.21; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice base has formed over the 200 day SMA (13.81) the past six months, setting up for the next breakout and run higher. Excellent stock ready to break to a new high with the breakout move from this pattern. Outstanding 8 to 1 accumulation in the base has set up the move, and now all we have to do is be patient and let it show us the breakout. Money flow, as with the rest of the indicators, is very strong.
Volume: 151.929K Avg Volume: 291.863K
BUY POINT: $17.04 Volume=438K Target=$20.48 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: HUE CC - Mar. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hlex.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/15/2004
CSTR (Coinstar--$25.55; +0.20; optionable): Automated coin counting machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still testing the 50 day EMA (25.31), holding the late October breakout as it does. Nice test of the break higher. This handle is part of a much larger 3 year base, setting CSTR to break higher toward a new all-time high at 35. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the pullback. Money flow has started to surge higher even as it makes this test. Looking for volume to jump back up as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 224.887K Avg Volume: 350.863K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=350K Target=$32.25 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: QLR DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cstr.html
Play Date: 12/16/2004
PRFT (Perficient--$6.69; +0.29; no options): Business software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up Tuesday, moving back above average after a two session lull, as PRFT rallied off the 10 day EMA (6.33). Looks ready to resume the breakout move from its 8 month cup with handle base. Money flow is surging ahead of price and the stock is starting to follow.
Volume: 243.666K Avg Volume: 168.59K
BUY POINT: $6.74 Volume=236K Target=$8.21 Stop=$6.27
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05
BSC: Forecast 12-21 before the open.
CHS: No split on 12-15. Looking at 3-2-05 as a tentative next date.
CME: Researching next date. Tentatively in mid-January.
CMTL: Researching next date as it makes a nice rally higher.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Continues to set up for the next move.
CRDN: Forecast 1-27-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Strong volume Friday as it rallied back but still below the 18 December 2004.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05
EASI: No split 12-14-04. Still looking for a test of that strong gap higher.
FDX: Impressive comeback from the Thursday gap lower.
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Forecast 12-22-04 after the close.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05
MKC: Forecast mid-February.
PFCB: Forecast to announce a split 1-2005.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Nice test above 10 day EMA. Researching next potential date.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
FLO (Flowers Foods--$30.37; +0.33; optionable): Processed and packaged goods. Forecast to announce a split on 2-3-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-30-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $29.90. Prior to that announced a 3 for 2 split on 11-16-01 in conjunction with a board meeting at $41.90.
BACKGROUND:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big breakout in early November from a 20 week trading range. The move took FLO to a new all-time high, and after that breakout and run it is taking a very nice, low volume rest. The stock has come back to the 18 day EMA (30.11) and has moved laterally just over that level for two weeks on below average volume. Tuesday volume moved back up above average as FLO moved off the 18 day. Strong money flow is still moving higher ahead of price, and we are looking to move into positions as FLO resumes the breakout move through the buy point.
Volume: 162.7K Avg Volume: 167.181K
BUY POINT: $30.82 Volume=188K Target=$35.65 Stop=$29.71
POSITION: FLO DF - Apr. $30c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$60; +0.93; optionable): Costly yuppie motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split on 1-12-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HDI came back to the 50 day EMA (58.84) to complete the handle to its 15 week base. Volume was low on the recent drop, indicating light selling. Tuesday it rebounded but volume was not yet there. Looking for volume to rally as it moves through the buy point. A breakout and run puts it at a new all-time high where there are no disgruntled shareholders to dump it.
Volume: 879.8K Avg Volume: 1.629M
BUY POINT: $61.05 Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
PFCB (PF Changs--$57.43; +1.27; optionable): Chinese restaurant chains. Forecast to announce a split in January 2005. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split, a 2:1, on 4-3-04 at $64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice move off the 18 day EMA (56.22) but without volume. Still time for that as PFCB is still in its three week lateral test of its early November breakout from its 7 month cup with handle base. Money flow remains strong as PFCB moves laterally. Volume is still quiet, but looking for a good surge as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 192.593K Avg Volume: 453.772K
BUY POINT: New: $57.59 (orig. $57.32) Volume=637K Target=$65 Stop=$55.89
POSITION: HUO DK - Apr. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
WFMI (Whole Foods Market--$94.62; +2.19; optionable): Organic foods stores. Forecast 2-09-05. Researching to pinpoint the exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-10-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $50.40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
After Hours: $94.78
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped to average Tuesday as WMFI rallied toward the breakout from its 5.5 month base. Accumulation is strong at 8 to 4, setting up the breakout move. Looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 1.013M Avg Volume: 940.59K
BUY POINT: $94.65 Volume=1.6M Target=$110 Stop=$92.88
POSITION: FMQ BS - Feb. $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wfmi.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/08/2004
CEDC (Central European District--$28.58; +0.48; no options): Polish liquor imports. That is still no joke.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (28.02), tapping that support on the low and rebounding Tuesday. Volume was quite low, however. Still a very good test of the early December breakout from its 21 week double bottom with handle. Money flow remains strong. Now we want to see strong volume as well as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 105.44K Avg Volume: 175.545K
BUY POINT: $28.72 Volume=250K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
KNGT (Knight Transportation--$25.07; +1.03; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kngt.html
STATUS: Double bottom/rectangle. KNGT started to break out of its rectangle Tuesday but volume, while higher, was still below average. Looking for a further move on some early strong volume to start positions. Nice 6 week pattern and showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation and excellent money flow moving higher ahead of price.
Volume: 256.918K Avg Volume: 282.363K
BUY POINT: New: $25.15 (orig. $25.05) Volume=350K Target=$30 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: GVL CW - Mar. $23.38c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kngt.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
QCOM (Qualcom--$43.98; +1.04; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
After Hours: $43.98
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was higher Tuesday, moving toward average as QCOM moved up off the 18 day EMA (43.04). After hours QCOM moved up through the buy point of the 9 week base. Solid pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA (41.70) with strong money flow. Looking to move in as QCOM makes the breakout move on continued rising volume.
Volume: 12.883M Avg Volume: 14.928M
BUY POINT: $44.15 Volume=20M Target=$53 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: AAO DV - Apr. $42.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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