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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: AMMD; HOLL; MIPS; GOOG; STGS
Best Plays:
1) GPN: Surging off the 50 day EMA on strong trade.
2) HOLX: Resuming its breakout move on tremendous trade.
3) ACPW: The lateral move is pinching off.
4) CRGN: Nice hammer doji on the 18 day EMA in the handle.
5) ECL: Volume is starting to move back up.
6) NGEN: Volume is jumping as it shows a doji on the 10 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/22/2004
GPN (Global Payments--$55.81; +1.58; optionable): Payment processor of electronic transactions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
After Hours: $56.40
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. This is the second test of the September breakout from its 9 month double bottom base. Solid 8 to 6 accumulation in the base set up the move. Now it is making a high volume bounce off the 50 day EMA (54.09), ready to continue the breakout move. Money flow is strong and running higher, leading ahead of price. Volume has spiked this past week, and looking for continued strong trade as GPN continues the bounce and moves through the buy point.
Volume: 433.3K Avg Volume: 313.636K
BUY POINT: $56.79 Volume=400K Target=$66 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: GPN EK - May $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
HELE (Helen of Troy--$31.76; +0.26; optionable): Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hele.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. The durable goods orders report is out Thursday, and HELE has formed a nice 6 month base, easing back the past week on very low volume to form the handle. The handle is the final shakeout of sellers, clearing the path for the breakout and run higher. The durables report may be enough to send it to the breakout. A strong mover in 2003 to June 2004, HELE needed this base to rest and set up the next move. It is ready and now just needs a catalyst to break it higher and another nice run. Neat thing is it only needs to hit the prior high or so to make us some nice money.
Volume: 126.958K Avg Volume: 286.636K
BUY POINT: $32.54 Volume=430K Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: EHQ EF - May $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hele.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
HOLX (Hologic--$28.10; +1.50; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $28.26
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was up Tuesday as HOLX tested and held the 10 day EMA (26.71), and it exploded higher Wednesday as HOLX moved higher on an upgrade from JP Morgan. It is a leader already, and this was an extra boost to the its position, cracking to a multiyear high. This is the second test of the breakout from its 18 week base sporting solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Money flow is strong and relative strength is breaking out once more, a corroboration of the solid move. HOLX closed well off the high (29.01), but we anticipate HOLX continuing the move higher, and we are ready to move into positions as it does.
Volume: 968.26K Avg Volume: 127.09K
BUY POINT: $28.32 Volume=250K Target=$33.98 Stop=$26.65
POSITION: QHX CE - Mar. $25c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/holx.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
NEOL (Neopharm--$12.78; +0.13; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neol.html
After Hours: $12.95
STATUS: Cup. NEOL is in an 8 month base and is starting to form the right side of the base with volume running sharply higher as it does. That is exactly what you want to see as it moves higher to form the right side of the base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and accumulation (up weeks versus down weeks on volume) is already positive at this relative early stage of the base. A very nice, low volume pullback the past week after a strong move through the 200 day SMA (11.08). It is ready to resume the move higher to work on the right side of the base. Another stock that can make us great money without having to break new ground territory out of the base. Our initial target is 16, but if it is running well we will let it continue the move.
Volume: 85.182K Avg Volume: 313.227K
BUY POINT: $13.12 Volume=450K Target=$16 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: UOE DV - Apr. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neol.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ACPW (Active Power--$4.61; +0.01; no options): Electric power producing devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acpw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still moving laterally in the 5 week test of the November breakout from the 10 month cup base. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price even as the stock tests, using the 18 day EMA (4.49) as support. It is ready; it just needs to make the move.
Volume: 102.044K Avg Volume: 149.727K
BUY POINT: New: $4.78 (orig. $4.72) Volume=207K Target=$6.15 Stop=$4.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acpw.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$9.28; +0.12; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
After Hours: $9.32
STATUS: STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ready to move to the breakout but volume backed off Wednesday after a strong showing Tuesday. Very nice 8 month base sporting strong 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow has continued to move higher as the stock moved laterally the past six weeks to form a handle to its base. Just need to see volume rise on the move.
Volume: 160.631K Avg Volume: 143.954K
BUY POINT: $9.57 Volume=375K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: AUQ EB - May $10c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
CRGN (Curagen--$7.03; -0.08; optionable): Genomic-based pharmaceutical development
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crgn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice hammer doji right on top of the 18 day EMA (7.02) as CRGN continues the work on its very nice handle to the 11 month base. Strong money flow. It is set up and now just needs to make the move.
Volume: 161.192K Avg Volume: 380.727K
BUY POINT: $7.78 Volume=542K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: CQX DU - Apr. $7.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crgn.html
Play Date: 12/15/2004
CSTR (Coinstar--$26.17; +0.62; optionable): Coins for paper money machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cstr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Seems almost ridiculous, but these machines make money. CSTR is still moving laterally over the 50 day EMA (23.93), narrowing its range as it moves further in the consolidation. This is part of a much larger 2.5 year base that is setting up the next move. Wednesday CSTR moved off the 50 day with a decent price move, but volume did not move with it. Money flow has jumped up again ahead of price. Looking for volume to do the same as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 126.037K Avg Volume: 356.545K
BUY POINT: $26.88 Volume=350K Target=$32.25 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: QLR DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cstr.html
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$34.66; +0.03; optionable): Environmental cleaning (pest control, etc.) for various industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. This one has required patience. It still does. Wednesday, however, volume edged back just above average as ECL bounced over 35. It could not hold the move, but over the past week it has been fidgeting on higher volume. Looking for a volume break higher to take it out of the 7 week lateral move.
Volume: 712.8K Avg Volume: 793.681K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=1.2M Target=$40.38 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: ECL DG - Apr. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
IMDC (Inamed--$63.83; +0.37; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IMDC moved higher Wednesday, but as with many stocks, volume did not move with it. IMDC moved through the buy point in its nice 24 week base, but without the volume we were not moving in. Strong 8 to 3 accumulation and solid money flow. It is set up to move but again, it has to show the volume.
Volume: 135.356K Avg Volume: 383.681K
BUY POINT: New: $64.05 (orig. $63.59) Volume=572K Target=$73.65 Stop=$61.55
POSITION: UZI DM - Apr. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imdc.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$6.21; +0.03; no options): Blood processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues the low volume lateral move over the 18 day EMA (6.05), forming the handle to the 11 month base. Strong 13 to 6 accumulation shows excellent buying during the base. Money flow is still strong. Being patient and waiting for KOOL to break through the top of the handle on some very strong trade.
Volume: 111.287K Avg Volume: 244.909K
BUY POINT: $6.54 Volume=350K Target=$7.89 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kool.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$6.93; +0.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
After Hours: $6.93
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was up Wednesday as NGEN reached down toward the 18 day EMA (6.39) on the low and then rebounded to hold the 10 day (6.85) on the close. This looks like the signal that the pullback is over and that NGEN is ready to continue building the right side of its 12 month cup base. Money flow continues to scream higher. Accumulation is already a strong 13 to 7. Looks ready.
Volume: 2.766M Avg Volume: 1.654M
BUY POINT: New: $7.42 (orig. $7.65) Volume=2.4M Target=$9.35 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: QEM CU - Mar. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngen.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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