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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CPS, EFJI; HOLL; MRGE; PRFT; GOOG
Best Plays:
1) NTES: Volume is starting back up as NTES comes off the 50 day EMA.
2) OSTK: Volume is up as well as it moves off the 18 day EMA.
3) JUPM: Nice pattern
4) ACPW: Still looks ready to make the move.
5) NEOL: Strong money flow leading higher.
6) NGEN: The pullback looks to be over.
7) STK: Giving us the new buy point.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/27/2004
FFIV (F5 Networks--$47.33; +0.32; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. FFIV is moving laterally in a tight range, basically the second test of the late October breakout from its 9 month cup with handle base. Strong breakout on strong volume, and a nice, easy lateral move the past two weeks on very low volume that is setting up the next move. Strong money flow continues even as the stock moves laterally. Solid 9 to 6 accumulation in the base set up the breakout. We are now looking for the stock to make the next move and for volume to kick up as it does.
Volume: 608.016K Avg Volume: 1.203M
BUY POINT: $48.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$56.55 Stop=$46.72
POSITION: FLK DJ - Apr. $50c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 12/27/2004
JUPM (Jupitermedia--$20.54; +0.56; optionable): Global provider of original online info, images, research and events
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jupm.html
After Hours: $20.58
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A nice 10 week base has formed roughly over the 50 day EMA (18.66; the head dipped below that level when it formed). Nice formation, and volume was up Monday though still below average as JUPM continued off the 50 day EMA on its way to break over the December high (21.17) and breakout of the base. Want to see the volume break higher as it continues the move higher and makes the breakout. Solid market leader that has set up well for the next move.
Volume: 494.871K Avg Volume: 664.181K
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=665K Target=$25.55 Stop=$19.89
POSITION: EUU ED - May $20c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jupm.html
Play Date: 12/27/2004
NTES (Netease.com--$52.04; +1.24; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $52.06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at NTES as it comes off the 50 day EMA (48.84) that acted as support for the 4 week handle to the 9 month base. Accumulation in the pattern is a strong 11 to 5, showing net buyers. Good volume as it moved up in late October and early November, forming the right side of the base. It then moved back in the handle on very low, below average volume, showing few sellers as it made the test. It has bounced off the 50 day but is not showing a lot of volume even for a light volume week. Want to see that crank up toward average as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 492.15K Avg Volume: 1.139M
BUY POINT: $53.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$63 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: NQG CJ - Mar. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Play Date: 12/27/2004
OSTK (Overstock.com--$70.87; +2.15; optionable): Internet retail clearance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ostk.html
After Hours: $70.87
STATUS: Breakout test. OSTK surged in late November on strong volume. It has spent the past two weeks easing back on much lower, below average volume, coming back to test and hold the 18 day EMA (69.44). Despite the low volume session overall, it showed solid trade as it came off the 18 day EMA. Would like to see more volume as it moves up through the buy point.
Volume: 1.091M Avg Volume: 1.61M
BUY POINT: $71.62 Volume=1.6M Target=$84 Stop=$69.38
POSITION: QKT CN - Mar. $70c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ostk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/06/2004
ACPW (Active Power--$4.67; -0.05; no options): Electric power producing devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acpw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up though still below average Monday as ACPW looked ready, but it could not hold the move. It is still pinching off between resistance at 4.75 and the 18 day EMA (4.53). Very nice 5 week test of the November breakout from the 10 month cup base. Money flow remains very strong. Again, it is ready; just needs to make the move.
Volume: 112.055K Avg Volume: 141.681K
BUY POINT: New: $4.78 (orig. $4.72) Volume=207K Target=$6.15 Stop=$4.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acpw.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$9.42; -0.15; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
After Hours: $9.43
STATUS: STATUS: Cup w/handle. Money flow continues to surge higher ahead of price as ARRY continues to flirt with the breakout from its nice 8 month base sporting strong 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Volume was above average Monday as it tried the breakout but backed off. Looks ready to make the move we want.
Volume: 254.265K Avg Volume: 144.045K
BUY POINT: $9.57 Volume=375K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: AUQ EB - May $10c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
HELE (Helen of Troy--$32.34; +0.45; optionable): Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hele.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Monday as HELE moved through the buy point on the session high (32.61) but backed off into the close. Not bad volume (close to average) given the overall low market trade. Solid 6 month base, easing back the past week on very low volume to form the handle. A strong mover in 2003 to June 2004, HELE needed this base to rest and set up the next move. Just need another high volume surge. Again the neat thing is it only needs to hit the prior high or so to make us some nice money.
Volume: 196.882K Avg Volume: 237.045K
BUY POINT: $32.54 Volume=430K Target=$37.95 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: EHQ EF - May $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hele.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
NEOL (Neopharm--$12.77; -0.15; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neol.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NEOL surged over the 200 day SMA (11.00) 9 sessions back, rallying on strong volume. It has since eased back the past week on very low, below average trade, holding in a narrow range above the 10 day EMA (12.50) as it does. Money flow continues to surge higher ahead of price, leading the way higher. It is working on the right side of its 8 month cup base. Looking for a solid volume surge as it starts the next move, rallying through the buy point. Again our initial target is 16, but if it is running well we will let it continue the move.
Volume: 148.369K Avg Volume: 247.954K
BUY POINT: $13.12 Volume=450K Target=$16 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: UOE DV - Apr. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neol.html
Play Date: 12/20/2004
NGEN (Nanogen--$6.86; -0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngen.html
After Hours: $6.86
STATUS: Test breakout. NGEN continues the test of the strong move up in December, a pair of strong moves off the bottom of the 12 month cup base. Volume has moved lower as it has made the test, holding at the 10 day EMA (6.86) on this test. Strong 13 to 7 accumulation is setting up the next break higher along with money flow that continues to run well ahead of price. Still looks ready to make a move.
Volume: 983.029K Avg Volume: 1.677M
BUY POINT: New: $7.42 (orig. $7.65) Volume=2.4M Target=$9.35 Stop=$7.15
POSITION: QEM CU - Mar. $7.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngen.html
Play Date: 12/11/2004
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$66.84; -0.59; optionable): Las Vegas gaming casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $66.84
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong surge two weeks back, WYNN has come back to test the 18 day EMA (65.29) the past week, tapping at that level on the Monday low (65.92). Volume has contracted as it made the pullback, just what you want to see as that indicates few sellers. It is also holding above the November high (64.30). Money flow remains strong on this test. Looking for volume to pick back up as it makes the next move higher. Have moved up the buy point to accommodate this nice test.
Volume: 761.557K Avg Volume: 1.445M
BUY POINT: $68.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$78.75 Stop=$66.12
POSITION: UWY CM - Mar. $65c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wynn.html
New buy point on a continuing play:
Play Date: 12/27/2004
STK (Storage Technology--$31.25; +0.41; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. STK is giving us the next entry point, coming off the 18 day EMA (30.70) after a very nice, low volume test the past week. Volume was solid Monday, almost making it to average on the move. Making a higher low here, following some solid money flow higher. Looking to add positions on a move through the buy point on continued solid volume.
Volume: 763.9K Avg Volume: 907.636K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=900K Target=$37 Stop=$30.58
POSITION: STK CF - Mar. $30c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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