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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: BIIB; CME; CPS; CSTR; EBAY; FLIR; JOYG; MGG; MRGE; SBUX; PLCE
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/28/2004
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$35.25; +0.71; optionable): Outsourced messaging and communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $35.20
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another crack at JCOM as it has set up well once more, moving laterally the past 5 weeks over the 50 day EMA (32.84) on very low volume, forming the handle to its 15 month base. Accumulation in the base is a strong 15 to 8 (15 up price weeks on rising volume to 8 down price weeks on rising volume), showing solid net buying as the stock consolidated in the long base. It has bumped resistance just over 35 several times during this handle, probing the resistance. Volume started to climb the past three sessions, rising to just about average Tuesday; not bad for a very low volume market. Looking for a break above the recent resistance on solid volume to move into positions.
Volume: 484.539K Avg Volume: 533.454K
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=600K Target=$42.88 Stop=$33.88
POSITION: JQF CG - Mar. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 12/28/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$44.98; +1.35; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. URBN is a leader that split in July. It continued its run into mid-November where it peaked and then fell into the current 6 week base. The base has formed over the 50 day EMA (41.80), a key institutional support level that a strong stock will hold when making a pullback to consolidate a solid move. That is exactly what URBN is doing here. It has bounced off the 50 day the past week, making a more definitive move Tuesday as it moved past the recent high and is ready to break through some resistance at 45. Want to see a bit more volume when it does, and we will start a position at that point and then look for the next entry point on a test.
Volume: 839.604K Avg Volume: 1.179M
BUY POINT: $45.12 Volume=1.4M Target=$53.22 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: URQ CI - Mar. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/28/2004
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$39; +0.94; optionable): Semiconductor materials and devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $38.95
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CREE made us some excellent money following the August breakout. It rallied well up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) until peaking in December and then needing a deeper test. It has made that test, coming back toward the 50 day EMA (36.63) the past two weeks, moving laterally over that level and price support at 37.50. Volume jumped Tuesday as it started off that support, rallying to near average. Looking for CREE to move through the 10 and 18 day EMA (38.93) on continued solid trade to enter for the next leg.
Volume: 2.511M Avg Volume: 2.747M
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=2.8M Target=$46.98 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: CQR CH - Mar. $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cree.html
Play Date: 12/28/2004
AMSC (American Superconductor--$15.07; +0.07; optionable): Electricity efficiency solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
After Hours: $15.07
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMSC is moving laterally the past two weeks in a very tight, flat range above the 10 day EMA (14.83), forming a nice handle to its 12 month base. At the bottom of the pattern AMSC formed a reverse head and shoulders pattern that broke out in late November. That move and another leg higher from there set up the right side of the pattern and this handle formation. Handles are where the stock shakes out the last sellers as they get frustrated the stock has stalled out. The very low volume, however, shows us there are not many sellers at all, just a final consolidation. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and has set up the breakout. Looking for volume to rally back up as AMSC provides a strong breakout from this handle.
Volume: 121.605K Avg Volume: 168.909K
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=250K Target=$18.35 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: QAY DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amsc.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
HLEX (Healthextras--$16.28; +0.38; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
After Hours: $16.33
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was edging higher Tuesday as HLEX came off its 18 day EMA (15.87) that has acted as support for the handle to its 7 month base sporting outstanding 8 to 1 accumulation. Money flow remains strong. Looks excellent, and just waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 160.203K Avg Volume: 279K
BUY POINT: $17.04 Volume=438K Target=$20.48 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: HUE CC - Mar. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hlex.html
Play Date: 12/27/2004
STK (Storage Technology--$31.45; +0.2; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume backed off, but STK is still ready to start the next leg higher after this nice, easy test of the breakout early this month. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. This higher low will be a good entry point; just want to see volume improve as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 419.2K Avg Volume: 907.636K
BUY POINT: $31.62 Volume=900K Target=$37 Stop=$30.58
POSITION: STK CF - Mar. $30c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05
BSC: Forecast 12-21 before the open. No split announcement and BSC is testing the strong early December move.
CHS: Looking at 3-2-05 as a tentative next date.
CME: Researching next date. Tentatively in mid-January.
CMTL: Researching for exact date. Continuing its move up the 10 day EMA.
CNMD: Researching next date. Nice 50 day EMA test to form a new handle.
CRDN: Forecast 1-27-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05
EASI: No split 12-14-04. Continues to rally without testing the gap.
FDX: Researching next date. Continuing its rally with an 18 day EMA test.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Forecast 12-22-04 after the close. No split announced but a big gap higher on strong earnings, and the gap is holding.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04. No split announced 12-21, but a gap higher and now a very nice lateral consolidation on low trade.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05
MKC: Forecast mid-February.
OSTK: Researching the exact date.
PFCB: Forecast to announce a split 1-2005.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Researching next potential date as TTC continues to rally up the 10 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$60.91; +1.04; optionable): Costly yuppie motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split on 1-12-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HDI is ready to clear the early December peak (60.92) as it continues to set up for the breakout. Nice 16 week base continues to form u, setting up the move to an all-time high when the breakout comes. Volume has been exceptionally weak, however, even for this market. Want to see some stronger trade as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 756.4K Avg Volume: 1.51M
BUY POINT: $61.05 Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
PFCB (PF Changs--$57.05; +1.03; optionable): Chinese restaurant chains. Forecast to announce a split in January 2005. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split, a 2:1, on 4-3-04 at $64.
After Hours: $57.05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfcb.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Some strong volume last Wednesday tried to break it out but failed. It held the 18 day EMA (56.31), however, and Tuesday volume moved higher as PFCB moved off that support. The lateral consolidation to test the November breakout has moved to four weeks as it continues the test of the breakout from the 7 month cup with handle base. Looking for that volume to continue higher as the stock hits the buy point.
Volume: 254.133K Avg Volume: 404.045K
BUY POINT: New: $57.59 (orig. $57.32) Volume=637K Target=$65 Stop=$55.89
POSITION: HUO DK - Apr. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pfcb.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
RGS (Regis--$46.55; +0.72; optionable): Hairstyling and hair care salons. Forecast 1-26-05
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in early 1999 at $40. Prior to that another 3:2 split in June 1996. Long time coming, but this is the first time it is back at this price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. An excellent end to last week, a pause, and now RGS is moving higher again, ready to make the breakout from the handle to its 8.5 month base. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern has set up the foundation. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Now all it needs is a some more volume on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 114.3K Avg Volume: 181.136K
BUY POINT: $46.65 Volume=274K Target=$54 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: RGS CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rgs.html
Play Date: 12/14/2004
SNS (Steak N Shake--$19.99; +0.46; no options): Fast food restaurants. Researching exact date as it has been awhile since it last split.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter in the late 1990's with 5 splits from 1996 to 1999, all at roughly $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sns.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SNS was on the warpath Tuesday, rallying to 20.44 on the high on stronger though still below average volume. It faded rather dramatically into the close, however, moving back below 20, the level that has acted as resistance the past week. At least it was able to crack through that level Tuesday. It looks ready to make the breakout move from its 11 month base sporting strong 12 to 6 accumulation. Looking for another volume move through 20 that sticks, and then we move into positions.
Volume: 78.9K Avg Volume: 96.818K
BUY POINT: New: $20.12 (orig. $19.55) Volume=152K Target=$24.22 Stop=$18.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sns.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/22/2004
ACET (Aceto--$19.22; +0.21; no options): Specialty chemicals. Splits 3:2 on 1-22-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acet.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Back to back dojis at the 10 day EMA (19.06) as ACET continues its two week lateral move over that near support level. This lateral move follows a strong break higher almost three weeks back, and ACET has been testing that move. Looked as if it was making the breakout of the lateral range last Wednesday as volume jumped to average; it was unable to hold that move, however. These dojis give the appearance that it is ready to make the next move, but we need to see it clear the buy point on some solid trade.
Volume: 42.483K Avg Volume: 102.59K
BUY POINT: $19.72 Volume=150K Target=$23.72 Stop=$18.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acet.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$69.51; +0.96; optionable): Customer data solutions. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A very nice lateral move the past two weeks as NCR skates along the 10 day EMA (68.92) in a relatively narrow range, setting up the next leg higher. Lower volume on the entire lateral move, even when before the overall market volume fell. Money flow continues to move higher as the stock tests, a nice bullish positive divergence. NCR jumped off the 10 day EMA Tuesday, and we are looking for a move through the buy point this week. Want to see a bit more volume as it does.
Volume: 316.3K Avg Volume: 954.363K
BUY POINT: $69.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$78 Stop=$67.85
POSITION: NCR BN - Feb. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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