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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CME; EBAY; HPOL; LACO; MCO; MNDO; MTSN; SNS; TASR; XXIA
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/29/2004
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$23.66; +0.75; optionable): Laser vision correction centers (LasikPlus)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After the late October breakout and subsequent run to 24, LCAV has slipped into the current 5 week flat, lateral move above the 18 day EMA (22.60), holding the gains on the run. The lack of a deeper test shows a lot of strength as it refuses to give up its gains. Wednesday LCAV jumped off the 18 day EMA on rising though still well below average volume. Solid 8 to 5 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the prior base and led to the breakout and run. The strength on the lateral move shows those buyers are still hanging onto their positions. Looking for a bit more volume as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 240.143K Avg Volume: 399.045K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=400K Target=$28.98 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: JVI CX - Mar. $23.38c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/29/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$46.98; +0.03; optionable): Analytical instrument manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Well formed 5.5 month base, WAT has spent the past 4 weeks forming a nice low volume handle to the pattern. It tapped the 50 day EMA (45.73) this week, showing a doji Monday and then a nice bounce Tuesday on decent average volume. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buyers during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout move. Looking for volume to improve to above average as it moves through the buy point; that is when we start our first position. We will look for more on the test of the breakout.
Volume: 488.6K Avg Volume: 607.045K
BUY POINT: $48.22 Volume=910K Target=$57.89 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: WAT EI - May $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wat.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACET 12/22 Cup hdl 18.97 -0.25 19.72 23.72 22K 150K 18.77
Buy Not Hit.
AFFX 11/06 Rv H&S 36.84 -0.04 32.99 38 695K 1.2M 35.42
Current.
AMSC 12/28 Cup hdl 14.99 -0.08 15.28 18.35 68K 250K 14.39
Buy Not Hit.
ARTI 10/09 Test BO 37.53 0 30.88 35.85 0 750K 35.88
Current. Acquired by ARMHY for a share conversion price of $6.06 per share.
BEBE 12/22 Flat 41.23 -0.29 41.92 50 238K 600K 39.12
Current.
BEBE 10/05 Cup hdl 41.23 -0.29 23.55 27.45 238K 375K 38.55
Current. Will trade post-split Thursday.
BIIB 12/08 Flat 67.92 +0.06 65.12 75 2.2M 4.5M 65.48
Current.
BWLD 12/13 Cup hdl 34.81 -0.13 35.95 43 49K 261K 35.75
Current.
CEDC 12/08 Test BO 29.85 +0.17 29.32 35.48 197K 250K 28.84
Current.
CENT 12/15 Cup hdl 41.17 -0.11 41.12 50.15 53K 160K 39.64
Current.
CERN 12/13 Test BO 52.88 -0.29 53.48 60.55 209K 565K 52.12
Current.
CHS 12/04 DB hdl 46 -0.25 44.88 51.58 578K 2.5M 44.58
Current.
CME 12/20 Test BO 227.92 +2.76 221.45 235 589K 1.1M 221
Current.
CME 11/22 FlyPlat 227.92 +2.76 203.68 224.89 589K 950K 224.35
Current.
CMTL 11/30 DB hdl 36.82 -0.52 33.15 38.85 114K 402K 36.05
Current.
CMVT 12/09 Test 18 24.09 -0.2 23.88 28.25 983K 3.2M 23.95
Current.
CPRT 12/14 Cup hdl 26.35 -0.39 27.24 32.65 222K 1.1M 25.42
Current.
CPS 12/23 DB hdl 46.05 -0.29 45.35 51 302K 400K 45.43
Current.
CREAF 12/09 Test BO 15.04 +0.17 14.81 18.85 783K 1M 14.11
Current.
CREE 12/28 Test 50 39.12 +0.12 39.48 46.98 1.3M 2.8M 38.05
Buy Not Issued.
CSTR 12/15 Test 50 27.19 +0.13 27.03 32.48 170K 350K 26.04
Current.
CYTC 11/09 Test 50 27.75 -0.26 26.57 32 352K 1.6M 27.38
Current.
DE 12/07 DB hdl 74 -0.14 73.63 82.55 934K 3.2M 71.61
Buy Not Issued.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 117.57 +1.41 88.05 99.94 8.3M 14M 112.68
Current.
EBAY 06/25 BO 117.57 +1.41 90.54 105 8.3M 10M 112.68
Current.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 117.57 +1.41 71.78 82.25 8.3M 10M 112.68
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 117.57 +1.41 53.78 60 8.3M 9M 112.68
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 117.57 +1.41 40.04 46 8.3M 8M 112.68
Current.
EMR 11/18 FlyPlat 69.84 +0.04 68.78 78 602K 1.4M 68.89
Current.
FLIR 12/21 DB hdl 62.64 -0.24 62.48 68.45 166K 700K 59.89
Current.
FLO 12/21 Test BO 31.38 -0.33 31.05 35.88 48K 188K 30.12
Current.
GOOG 12/18 Pennant 192.9 +0.14 185.85 214 2.7M 12M 183.48
Current.
HAR 12/16 Test 50 126.4 -1.28 126.88 136.65 187K 800K 124.25
Current.
HDI 12/11 DB hdl 60.97 +0.06 61.05 71 505K 2M 59.89
Buy Not Hit.
HLEX 12/21 Cup hdl 16.2 -0.08 17.04 20.48 195K 438K 16.45
Buy Not Hit.
HPOL 12/07 Test 20 8.07 +0.13 7.62 9.18 491K 400K 7.65
Current.
INFY 11/29 FlyPlat 70.19 -0.06 71.35 81 296K 1M 69.48
Current.
IR 12/09 Test BO 81.04 -0.61 77.55 90 634K 1.5M 80.03
JCOM 12/28 Cup hdl 35.64 +0.39 36.05 42.96 510K 600K 34.24
Entered today. An early solid move but backed off from high (36.35). Volume was better as it posted a modest gain. Decent start; needs to continue from here.
JOYG 12/16 Test 50 43.54 -0.86 42.85 49.38 339K 625K 43.12
Current.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 99.94 +0.09 80.22 92 541K 3.6M 105
Current.
KNGT 12/18 Flat 25.44 -0.31 25.05 30 104K 350K 23.88
Buy Not Issued.
LACO 11/23 Cup hdl 16.31 +0.79 14.12 16.75 250K 185K 14.87
Target Hit.
MCO 10/23 Test BO 86.26 +0.91 75 84 369K 625K 84.18
Current.
MGG 11/13 Test 18 72.04 +0.44 60.48 67.75 596K 1.4M 68.89
Current.
MKC 12/18 BO 38.56 -0.22 38.75 46.48 271K 400K 37.52
Buy Not Issued.
MNDO 12/13 Cup hdl 5.82 +0.31 5.48 7 512K 366K 5.32
Current.
MRGE 12/27 Test BO 22.77 -0.37 21.78 25.95 135K 170K 22.48
Current.
MRVL 11/13 Flat 35.25 +0.03 31.41 37 1.1M 6M 34.25
Current.
MSCC 12/11 Test BO 16.68 -0.09 17.89 21.45 534K 1.1M 16.95
Buy Not Issued.
MTSN 12/02 Cup 11.44 +0.29 11.15 13.75 192K 500K 10.65
Current.
NCR 12/21 Test BO 69.63 +0.12 69.88 78 280K 1.1M 67.85
Buy Not Issued.
NGEN 12/20 Test BO 6.87 +0.02 7.65 9.35 1M 2.4M 7.15
Buy Not Hit.
OSTK 12/27 Test 18 70.2 -2.16 72.48 85 1.2M 1.6M 69.44
Current.
PETM 10/27 Cup hdl 35.76 +0.03 31.75 38.95 500K 2.4M 34.69
PFCB 12/18 Test BO 57.02 -0.03 57.32 65 172K 637K 55.89
Buy Not Issued.
PLCE 12/21 Cup hdl 36.8 +0.22 34.41 40.32 432K 975K 34.98
Current.
PNK 12/16 Test BO 20.04 -0.28 18.65 22.35 130K 300K 18.99
Current.
PRFT 12/16 Test BO 6.51 -0.38 6.9 8.45 294K 236K 6.48
Current.
QCOM 12/11 Cup hdl 42.84 -0.67 44.39 53 12M 20M 43.48
Current.
RCI 11/09 Cup 35.96 +0.13 33.11 39 138K 370K 35.29
Current.
RGS 12/22 Cup hdl 46.68 +0.13 46.65 54 184K 274K 45.22
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 12/20 Asc Tri 63.87 +0.78 59.95 68.55 3M 4.5M 59.89
Current.
SBUX 10/27 DB hdl 63.87 +0.78 51.42 60.45 3M 5M 59.89
Current.
SBUX 09/21 DB hdl 63.87 +0.78 46.53 51.75 3M 5M 59.89
Current.
SNS 12/14 Cup hdl 20.4 +0.41 20.41 24.55 44K 152K 19.62
Entered today.
SPLS 11/13 Asc Bse 33.35 0 31 36 1.6M 4M 32.58
Current.
STK 12/27 Test BO 31.37 -0.08 31.62 37 471K 900K 30.58
Buy Not Hit.
STK 11/30 DB hdl 31.37 -0.08 29.92 35.54 471K 1.4M 30.62
Current.
TASR 12/06 Test BO 31.09 +2.66 28.88 34 18M 21M 29.89
Current.
UPS 10/09 Test BO 85.72 -0.15 76.75 82.75 1M 2.1M 85.72
Current.
URBN 12/28 Dbl btm 44.84 -0.14 45.12 53.22 667K 1.4M 43.89
Buy Not Issued.
UTX 11/29 Cup hdl 103.96 -0.78 98.92 110 1.2M 3.2M 102.25
Current.
WFMI 12/09 Cup hdl 95.36 -0.04 95.35 111 390K 1.6M 93.65
Current.
XXIA 12/29 Cup hdl 16.88 +2.11 16.84 20.25 4.1M 606K 15.94
Entered today.
YUM 10/12 Test BO 47.15 +0.15 42.89 48 676K 1.2M 45.89
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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