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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: GOOG; MCO; MGG; NGEN; TASR
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 12/30/2004
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$37.25; +0.95; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume was up Thursday as KWK moved toward the breakout from its 6 month base. The base formed along the 50 day EMA (33.88), making higher lows along that level. Very nice pattern and KWK is working well despite the pullback in the oil price. Looking for that strong volume to kick in.
Volume: 482.6K Avg Volume: 692.863K
BUY POINT: $37.74 Volume=1M Target=$45 Stop=$35.87
POSITION: KWK CG - Mar. $35c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kwk.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/30/2004
NTGR (Netgear--$17.84; +1.22; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntgr.html
After Hours: $17.78
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Thursday as NTGR jumped off the bottom of its handle to its 12 month base. Accumulation is an outstanding 14 to 5, showing a lot of buyers during the base. Money flow is excellent, surging higher ahead of price. This time it looks as if NTGR is ready to go.
Volume: 2.166M Avg Volume: 868.318K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=1M Target=$21.65 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: TUD CW - Mar. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntgr.html
Play Date: 12/30/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$29.76; +0.24; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
After Hours: $29.63
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice handle has formed this month, pulling back to the 50 day EMA (29.43) as support. Nicely formed base sporting strong 14 to 7 accumulation setting up the breakout. Excellent money flow is leading higher is leading higher. Excellent set up for the new year.
Volume: 67.993K Avg Volume: 184K
BUY POINT: $30.15 Volume=276K Target=$36 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: QYR EF - May $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/28/2004
AMSC (American Superconductor--$15.04; +0.05; optionable): Electricity efficiency solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally in the very flat two week handle to the 12 month base. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and has set up the breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher. Just waiting for the volume to spike higher.
Volume: 45.122K Avg Volume: 168.909K
BUY POINT: $15.28 Volume=250K Target=$18.35 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: QAY DC - Apr. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amsc.html
Play Date: 12/28/2004
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$39.83; +0.71; optionable): Semiconductor materials and devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $39.89
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CREE moved higher Thursday but volume was still very low. If it had given any hint of increased trade we would have been interested in a partial position. As it is we will look for some more volume Friday (that will be a trick unless the buyers focus on the stock). In short, it may take until next week, but we want to be ready. To recap: CREE made us some excellent money following the August breakout. It rallied well up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) until peaking in December and then needing a deeper test. It has made that test, coming back toward the 50 day EMA (36.85) the past two weeks, moving laterally over that level and price support at 37.50. Volume jumped Tuesday as it started off that support, rallying to near average.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 2.747M
BUY POINT: New: 40.05 (orig. $39.48) Volume=2.8M Target=$46.98 Stop=$38.05
POSITION: CQR CH - Mar. $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cree.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
HLEX (Healthextras--$16.25; +0.05; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HLEX continues to look very good as it moves laterally in the 4 week handle to its 7 month base. Volume has been creeping higher the past two sessions, hinting at a breakout. Excellent 8 to 1 accumulation shows a lot of buyers. Just being patient.
Volume: 186.595K Avg Volume: 278.863K
BUY POINT: $17.04 Volume=438K Target=$20.48 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: HUE CC - Mar. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hlex.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05
BSC: Researching the next date. Testing the strong December move.
CHS: Looking at 3-2-05 as a tentative next date.
CME: Researching next date. Tentatively in mid-January.
CMTL: Researching for exact date. Nice lateral move ready to break higher.
CNMD: Researching next date. Excellent 50 day EMA test.
CRDN: Forecast 1-27-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05
EASI: No split 12-14-04. Moving laterally over the 10 day EMA and below 60.
FDX: Researching next date. Nice 18 day EMA test.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: No split12-22-04. Continues the lateral move that tests the strong gap higher.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05
LEH: No split announced 12-21-04. Excellent lateral move after gapping higher in mid-December.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05
MKC: Forecast mid-February.
OSTK: Researching the exact date.
PFCB: Forecast to announce a split 1-2005.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Researching next potential date as TTC continues to rally up the 10 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/30/2004
HCR (Manor Care--$35.39; +0.57; optionable): Long-term care facilities. Forecast 1-21-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in February 1996 at $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice above average volume Thursday as HCE continued the move off the bottom of the handle to its 11 month base sporting absolutely excellent 11 to 2 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows almost all buying during the base, setting up the foundation for a strong breakout and run higher. Money flow is string, surging higher ahead of price. Ready to move in on a nice volume breakout.
Volume: 459.1K Avg Volume: 440K
BUY POINT: $35.95 Volume=660K Target=$42 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: HCR EG - May $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcr.html
Play Date: 12/29/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$47.18; +0.20; optionable): Analytical instrument manufacturer. Forecast to announce a split on 1-17-05 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting at $136. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in conjunction with a board meeting on 2-26-99 at $90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Well formed 5.5 month base, WAT has spent the past 4 weeks forming a nice low volume handle to the pattern. It tapped the 50 day EMA (45.78) this week, showing a doji Monday and then a nice bounce Tuesday on decent average volume. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buyers during the base, setting the foundation for a breakout move. Again, looking for strong volume as the stock moves through the buy point to start our first position. We will look for more on the test of the breakout.
Volume: 324.5K Avg Volume: 604.09K
BUY POINT: $48.22 Volume=910K Target=$57.89 Stop=$46.55
POSITION: WAT EI - May $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wat.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/11/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$61.08; +0.11; optionable): Costly yuppie motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split on 1-12-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HDI is still right at the early December high (60.92), but it is not getting any volume as it approaches the buy point. Still a very nice 16 week base with solid money flow leading higher. It is setting up for a breakout to take it to an all-time high.
Volume: 620K Avg Volume: 1.48M
BUY POINT: New: $61.35 (orig. $61.05) Volume=2M Target=$71 Stop=$59.89
POSITION: HDI BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
RGS (Regis--$46.65; -0.03; optionable): Hairstyling and hair care salons. Forecast 1-26-05
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in early 1999 at $40. Prior to that another 3:2 split in June 1996. Long time coming, but this is the first time it is back at this price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rgs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RGS showed good volume (average) and a nice upside move Wednesday as it taps right at the breakout point from its 8.5 month base. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern has set up the foundation. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Getting ready to make the move.
Volume: 75.4K Avg Volume: 176.863K
BUY POINT: $46.65 Volume=274K Target=$54 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: RGS CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rgs.html
New buys on current positions:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
HAR (Harman Intl.--$125.9; -0.5; optionable): High end auto audio. Forecast 1-26-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 10-2-03 at $98. Prior to that, announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-16-00 at a stock price of $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test breakout. HAR has settled back to the 18 day EMA (125.10) on very low, below average volume. This is a part of its 8 week consolidation of the strong late October to early November move. It came off of the 50 day EMA (120.90) on some solid trade and this is the test of that move inside the bigger breakout test. Strong money flow is leading higher. This stock is coiling for the next move higher. It can fly when it starts back up.
Volume: 211.6K Avg Volume: 561.954K
BUY POINT: $126.88 Volume=800K Target=$136.65 Stop=$124.25
POSITION: HAR DE - Apr. $125c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/22/2004
ACET (Aceto--$19.34; +0.37; no options): Specialty chemicals. Splits 3:2 on 1-22-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acet.html
After Hours: $19.35
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice move off of the 18 day EMA (18.82) Thursday as volume edged higher. Looking very good as it approaches the breakout from its 2 week lateral consolidation of the strong break higher the first week of December. A new issue in June, and we love to move in on the first good base. This is it.
Volume: 26.466K Avg Volume: 100.363K
BUY POINT: $19.72 Volume=150K Target=$23.72 Stop=$18.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acet.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$69.10; -0.53; optionable): Customer data solutions. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the tight low volume lateral move over the 10 day EMA (68.86) as it consolidates the strong breakout and run from late November. Solid money flow still moving higher. This one is primed to make the next move.
Volume: 331.9K Avg Volume: 946.318K
BUY POINT: $69.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$78 Stop=$67.85
POSITION: NCR BN - Feb. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 12/29/2004
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$23.45; -0.21; optionable): Laser vision correction centers (LasikPlus)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Took a breather Thursday on lower volume, basically holding steady after a nice bounce Wednesday. After the late October breakout and subsequent run to 24, LCAV has slipped into the current 5 week flat, lateral move above the 18 day EMA (22.69), holding the gains on the run. The lack of a deeper test shows a lot of strength as it refuses to give up its gains. Wednesday LCAV jumped off the 18 day EMA on rising though still well below average volume. Solid 8 to 5 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the prior base and led to the breakout and run. The strength on the lateral move shows those buyers are still hanging onto their positions. Now we want to see that volume jump as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 173.012K Avg Volume: 397.727K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=400K Target=$28.98 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: JVI CX - Mar. $23.38c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Play Date: 12/28/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$45.18; +0.34; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Working laterally the past two sessions after the solid bounce higher Monday off of the 18 day EMA (43.74) on some better trade. URBN continues to work in its short 6 week double bottom pattern that is working to consolidate the strong September to November run. May slide laterally another couple of days before it breaks higher, but it is setting up well.
Volume: 550.926K Avg Volume: 1.179M
BUY POINT: New: $45.45 (orig. $45.12) Volume=1.4M Target=$53.22 Stop=$43.89
POSITION: URQ CI - Mar. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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