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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
CMC (Commercial Metals--$49.69; +0.48; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 1-11-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CMC has worked laterally over the 10 day EMA (49.10) the past two weeks, consolidating the strong mid-December break higher. It has refused to give back the gain, even in the market selling. That is a testament to the stock's strength as no one wants to sell it. Volume was up Tuesday as it tested the 10 day again and posted a modest gain. Strong money flow and buying. Looking for a move higher this week as its pre-split run commences.
Volume: 843.9K Avg Volume: 341.462K
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=500K Target=$57 Stop=$48.97
POSITION: CMC CJ - Mar. $50c (88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
Play Date: 01/04/2005
WWW (Wolverine World Wide--$31.71; -0.09; optionable): Footwear. Splits 3:2 on 2-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/www.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice 9 week base has set up over the 50 day EMA (30.35) on low volume. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers as investors pick up shares as it bases along the 50 day. Volume has picked up the past two sessions, not surprising since all the players are back from holiday, but it did not sell off at all with the increased trade. That is a sign of strength, and we are looking for a breakout within the next few sessions.
Volume: 335K Avg Volume: 332.636K
BUY POINT: $32.32 Volume=400K Target=$36 Stop=$31.15
POSITION: WWW CF - Mar. $30c (70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/www.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$45.14; -1.14; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. HYSL has formed a short 5 week pattern that is acting as a test of the breakout from an 18 week base in November. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base and 7 to 5 accumulation in the larger pattern. That shows net buyers. Solid money flow as well. HYSL sold to the 18 day EMA (45.19) in the Tuesday selling, but overall it is holding up well and we anticipate it will rebound from this range and give us the breakout to continue its run higher.
Volume: 799.241K Avg Volume: 684.09K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=850K Target=$55 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: WQE EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
HLEX (Healthextras--$15.99; -0.07; optionable): Insurance brokers
After Hours: $15.98
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hlex.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Despite the selling HLEX has held the 18 day EMA (15.99) and the handle to its 7 month base. Its strength in the selling shows it has believers as holders ; the excellent 8 to 1 accumulation in the base is a very good indication of why it is holding strong. Strong money flow as well. Waiting for this current market selling to abate, and then it will probably give us the breakout move.
Volume: 291.201K Avg Volume: 285.863K
BUY POINT: $17.04 Volume=438K Target=$20.48 Stop=$16.45
POSITION: HUE CC - Mar. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hlex.html
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 12/27/2004
MRGE (Merge Technologies--$21.97; -0.13; optionable): Healthcare software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrge.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong December breakout from a year long double bottom with handle base, MRGE has come back to test the move. Unlike the market, it is selling on light volume and is holding most of its gains. Tapping at the 10 day EMA (21.70) on the lows and rebounding. Solid action as it rides out the selling in anticipation of its next move. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Looking for volume to jump back up here as MRGE starts the next move higher.
Volume: 81.784K Avg Volume: 85.818K
BUY POINT: New positions: $22.65 (orig. $21.78) Volume=170K Target=$26.95 Stop=$22.48
POSITION: MQP CX - Mar. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrge.html
Play Date: 12/16/2004
PNK (Pinnacle Entertainment--$19.29; -0.35; optionable): Gaming activities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnk.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A nice December run and now a nice, low volume test. Unlike the rest of the market, PNK has eased back on mostly lower trade, maintaining its uptrend. This is the third test of the 18 day EMA (19.17) and looking for another rebound from here to continue the nice breakout run. Strong money flow and relative strength. Its low volume fade shows its strength in a market that was selling hard.
Volume: 199.9K Avg Volume: 235.727K
BUY POINT: New: $19.95 (orig. positions: $18.65) Volume=300K Target=$23.55 Stop=$18.99
POSITION: PNK CD - Mar. $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05
BSC: Researching the next date. Still in the test of the December run, holding well over the 50 day EMA.
CHS: Looking at 3-2-05 as a tentative next date.
CME: Tentatively in mid-January. Looking for a test of the 50 day EMA to move back in.
CMTL: Broke lower through the 18 day EMA. Looking for a 50 day EMA test to set up the next move.
CNMD: Got into trouble, unable to recover the 50 day EMA after breaking it Monday.
CRDN: Forecast 1-27-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05
EASI: Gee, now it is filling the gap. Looking for a test of the 50 day at 55.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
FDX: Now it has tested the 50 day EMA. A hold here and solid bounce is an aggressive entry point.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Filling the December gap higher. A test of the 50 day EMA and it will be ready.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05
LEH: Still in the uptrend but broke the 18 day EMA on volume Tuesday.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. Locked in the rest of the gain Monday. Will look for a 50 day EMA and see if that gives us a good bounce to enter once more.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05
MKC: Forecast mid-February.
NKE: Researching exact date.
OSTK: Exited Monday, but could give us a new buy point if it continues to hold the 50 day EMA.
PFCB: Forecast to announce a split 1-2005.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05. Nice test of the 18 day EMA ahead of potential announcement Wednesday
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Testing the 18 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$75.63; -0.39; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 2-2-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice handle has formed at the 18 day EMA (75.88) as ESRX shows a pair of dojis at that level on some rising volume. As the market sold this week ESRX has held the 18 day on below average volume. Ignored or immune to the selling right now? Positive 7 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. A very nice low volume pullback to form the handle. Now we wait and see if it can deliver the breakout move.
Volume: 919.813K Avg Volume: 1.075M
BUY POINT: $77.38 Volume=1.6M Target=$87.55 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ EO - May $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 12/30/2004
HCR (Manor Care--$35.39; +0.57; optionable): Long-term care facilities. Forecast 1-21-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split in February 1996 at $35.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice above average volume Thursday as HCE continued the move off the bottom of the handle to its 11 month base sporting absolutely excellent 11 to 2 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows almost all buying during the base, setting up the foundation for a strong breakout and run higher. Money flow is string, surging higher ahead of price. Ready to move in on a nice volume breakout.
Volume: 459.1K Avg Volume: 440K
BUY POINT: $35.95 Volume=660K Target=$42 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: HCR EG - May $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcr.html
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$89.40; -1.29; optionable): Sports apparel, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NKE sold some Tuesday, moving down to the 18 day EMA (89.53) as it continues to test the strong break higher in mid-December on its strong earnings results. Unlike the market, volume was lower on the selling, well below average. That shows very few want to sell NKE. Looking for a split and a run to $100. This is a continuation of the October breakout from a 26 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (77.12) as support. Strong money flow and relative strength. Want it to hold this level to show the most strength. Still very solid.
Volume: 807.9K Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: $91.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$89.25
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$64.59; -0.28; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Good volume move Monday as the market sold. Tried to continue the move Tuesday as BCR gapped higher, but the overall selling was too severe and BCR gave back some ground. Volume was lower as it did; showing the right action here. BCR broke out sharply in mid-December, surging from 60 to 64 when it forecast strong 14+% growth in 2005. That broke it out from a 26 week double bottom sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong net buying during the base set up the breakout. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well corroborates the move. May test back to 64 before resuming the move, but looking quite strong.
Volume: 770.4K Avg Volume: 567.818K
BUY POINT: $65.32 Volume=725K Target=$74.75 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: BCR DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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