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stock recommendation, stock market report
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: GENZ; GERN; WWCA; WYNN
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
PRE (Partnerre Ltd.--$61.86; +1.69; optionable): P&C insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pre.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. PRE broke out from a 10 month base in late November, rallied to near 63, and then started to test the move with the market pullback this week. Volume was average on the test, not bad as that shows few sellers. It came back to the 50 day EMA (59.98) and then shot higher Thursday on strong, above average volume. That is they kind of reaction you like to see off of the 50 day. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 14 to 6 (14 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating lots of buying in the base. Good breakout, good test, and a good resumption of the move.
Volume: 423.7K Avg Volume: 248.909K
BUY POINT: $62.53 Volume=325K Target=$68 Stop=$61.11
POSITION: PRE EL - May $60c (77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pre.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$46.96; +0.78; optionable): Application software
After Hours: $47.07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up again, looking very strong as HYSL moved higher once more after the 18 day EMA (45.47) test. It also closed well off of its high (47.87) for the session, so we held off. Still a sweet 5 week pattern, coming off the breakout test well. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base and 7 to 5 accumulation in the larger pattern. Solid money flow as well. Still looks ready for that all-time high.
Volume: 1.36M Avg Volume: 681.409K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=850K Target=$55 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: WQE EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hysl.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 12/16 Test BO 64.55 +0.05 66.68 76 13M 15M 64.75
Current.
AAPL 12/09 Test 18 64.55 +0.05 65.52 76 13M 15M 62.05
Current.
ACTI 01/03 Cup hdl 8.96 +0.21 9.48 11.48 391K 323K 8.82
Buy Not Hit.
AMMD 12/18 DB hdl 39.02 +0.27 41.74 49.25 250K 450K 41.48
Current.
ANT 12/29 Rv H&S 38.5 -0.02 42.52 48.55 182K 400K 40.88
Buy Not Issued.
ARRY 12/21 Cup hdl 9.19 +0.23 9.57 11.55 107K 375K 8.97
Buy Not Issued.
AV 01/05 Cup hdl 16.79 -0.21 17.81 21.42 3.9M 6.3M 16.84
Buy Not Hit.
BAX 01/05 DB hdl 35.06 +0.14 35.11 42 3.4M 3M 34.11
Buy Not Issued.
CENT 12/15 Cup hdl 38.94 +0.39 41.12 50.15 79K 160K 39.64
Current.
CERN 12/13 Test BO 50.01 -0.7 53.48 60.55 902K 565K 52.12
Current.
CRGN 12/18 Cup hdl 6.69 +0.1 7.78 9.45 109K 542K 7.22
Buy Not Hit.
CSTR 12/15 Test 50 24.75 -0.5 27.03 32.48 408K 350K 26.04
Exited. Thought it might bounce off bottom of its 9 week trading
range but sold toward end of session.
DUSA 11/16 Flat 14.55 +0.26 12.88 15.35 158K 208K 13.84
Current.
EFJI 12/23 DB hdl 8.67 -0.23 9 10.85 182K 178K 9.44
Current.
EMC 12/30 Cup hdl 13.8 -0.25 15.01 18 20M 18M 14.33
Buy Not Issued.
FFIV 12/27 FlyPlat 42.29 -2.19 49.59 57.55 2.2M 1.2M 47.78
Current.
GENZ 11/22 Cup hdl 58.12 +1.21 57.45 63.75 2.8M 3.2M 56.14
Current.
GERN 01/04 Cup hdl 9.37 +1.38 8.96 11.35 8M 1.8M 8.33
Entered today.
GOOG 12/18 Pennant 188.55 -4.96 185.85 214 10M 12M 198.87
Current. Sold to 18 day EMA after gap higher. This is where
we look for a strong upside move.
GPN 12/22 Test 50 56.6 +0.53 56.79 66 390K 400K 57.12
HOLX 12/22 Test BO 25.61 -0.05 28.48 33.98 63K 250K 27.24
Exited. Failed in its attempt to retake the 18 day MA.
HYSL 01/04 DB hdl 46.96 +0.78 46.88 55 1.4M 850K 45.05
Buy Not Issued.
IMDC 12/20 Cup hdl 60.41 -0.91 63.59 73.65 465K 572K 61.55
Buy Not Hit.
IMGN 01/05 Test BO 8.45 +0.28 8.55 10.68 217K 383K 8.04
Buy Not Hit.
JUPM 12/27 Rv H&S 20.2 +0.05 21.76 25.98 393K 665K 22.94
Current.
KOOL 12/18 Cup hdl 6.23 -0.1 6.54 7.89 184K 350K 6.15
Buy Not Issued.
MIPS 11/11 Test BO 9.43 +0.19 8.67 10.41 317K 347K 9.44
Current.
MNDO 12/13 Cup hdl 5.12 -0.08 5.48 7 83K 366K 5.32
Exited. Tried but failed in attempt to reclaim the 50 day MA
so closed it down.
MRGE 12/27 Test BO 20.54 -1.05 21.78 25.95 179K 170K 22.48
Exited.
NAVR 01/05 DB hdl 18.26 +0.6 18.32 21.92 814K 825K 17.28
Entered today.
NEOL 12/22 Test BO 12.29 +0.39 13.12 16 241K 450K 12.32
Buy Not Issued.
NKE 01/03 Test BO 88.22 -0.11 91.88 100 1.1M 1.2M 89.25
Buy Not Hit.
NTES 12/27 Cup hdl 51.88 +0.63 53.15 63 739K 1.2M 50.78
Buy Not Issued.
NXTP 12/09 Test 50 19.54 +0.24 18.58 23.35 1.7M 2M 18.72
Current.
PRFT 12/16 Test BO 8.05 +0.25 6.9 8.45 916K 236K 8.57
Current.
STK 12/27 Test BO 32.98 +0.41 31.68 37 1.7M 900K 30.77
Current.
STK 11/30 DB hdl 32.98 +0.41 29.92 35.54 1.7M 1.4M 30.62
Current.
USNA 01/03 Cup hdl 33.96 +0.65 35 42 145K 303K 33.42
Buy Not Hit.
VISG 12/29 Cup 8.24 -0.06 9.75 11.75 439K 1.3M 9.07
Buy Not Hit.
WMS 12/02 Rv H&S 31.18 -0.14 31.65 37.45 984K 945K 31.72
Current.
WWCA 01/03 Asc Tri 35.7 +4.7 31.22 35.85 20M 1.3M 29.48
Target Hit. Gapped higher on unconfirmed report it was being acquired.
Figured that was as good as it was going to get (acquisition
might be later denied) so took the gain.
WYNN 12/11 Cup 68.83 +2.68 68.48 78.75 1.7M 1.5M 66.35
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ANN 12/20 Put 23.14 +2.55 20.55 17.75 4.2M 1.6M 21.24
Exited. Sales were weak but not as weak as expected and that
was good enough to gap it higher. It tried to sell
back but then found some support so we cut it off.
PXP 01/03 Put 24.6 +0.35 24.78 22.85 843K 700K 25.38
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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