|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CHS; FINL; MGG; PLCE
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$50.51; +1.79; optionable): Personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. Volume has been up this week as with most stocks, but it is not selling volume. Thursday ACV blasted higher on the strongest trade in two months, breaking out of its 25 week base. Nice clean breakout. Solid money flow and 6 to 5 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base shows net buying. Looking to move in on a further volume move as it moves to a new high and starts its next uptrend.
Volume: 840.4K Avg Volume: 314.681K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=325K Target=$55 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: ACV FJ - June $50c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 01/06/2005
SSYS (Stratasys--$37.14; +2.74; optionable): PC peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
After Hours: $36.96
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Volume was up nicely Thursday as SSYS resumed the breakout move from its 15 month base. A somewhat low volume breakout in mid-December started the move, and it tested that breakout the past two weeks. Looks as if it is successful as volume has picked up well this week as the stock moves off the 18 day EMA test. Excellent 20 to 11 accumulation in the base has set the stage for the breakout move and we are ready to pick up some positions as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 315.947K Avg Volume: 181.681K
BUY POINT: $37.25 Volume=273K Target=$43.38 Stop=$35.89
POSITION: QQQ FG - June $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
WGII (Washington Group--$41.42; +1.17; optionable): International provider of design, engineering, construction management, mining, environmental remediation, etc. services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgii.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WGII broke out from a 10 month base to end December. It sold back early this week to the 18 day EMA (40.16) to test breakout. Volume jumped back up Thursday as it resumed the breakout. Nice. Accumulation is a strong 14 to 10, money flow is moving up ahead of price, and relative strength is breaking out, a good corroboration of the price move.
Volume: 583.04K Avg Volume: 197.636K
BUY POINT: $41.65 Volume=296K Target=$48 Stop=$39.97
POSITION: QUG FH - June $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wgii.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/05/2005
BAX (Baxter Intl.--$35.06; +0.14; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was solid again Thursday, but BAX rallied to the Thursday high (35.42) and stalled again. Posted a modest gain for the session; not bad given late day retreat. Ready to resume the early December breakout move from its 24 week double bottom with handle base sporting excellent 9 to 3 accumulation. Strong money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 3.353M Avg Volume: 2M
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=3M Target=$42 Stop=$34.11
POSITION: BAX EG - May $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bax.html
Play Date: 01/04/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$46.96; +0.78; optionable): Application software
After Hours: $47.07
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up again, looking very strong as HYSL moved higher once more after the 18 day EMA (45.47) test. It also closed well off of its high (47.87) for the session, so we held off. Still a sweet 5 week pattern, coming off the breakout test well. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base and 7 to 5 accumulation in the larger pattern. Solid money flow as well. Still looks ready for that all-time high.
Volume: 1.36M Avg Volume: 681.409K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=850K Target=$55 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: WQE EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 12/16/2004
PRFT (Perficient--$8.05; +0.25; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
After Hours: $8.07
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks ready to resume the breakout move following the huge blast higher to start the year and subsequent low volume pullback. Nice 8 month cup with handle base in November followed by a 4 week flying plateau. Very strong and ready for more.
Volume: 915.681K Avg Volume: 359.318K
BUY POINT: New positions: 8.38 (orig. positions: $6.90) Volume=236K Target=$10 (orig. positions: $8.45) Stop=$8.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prft.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05. Big move on strong December sales.
BSC: Researching the next date. Looks ready for the move off the 50 day EMA.
CHS: Announced the 2:1 split along with great December sales. Excellent run higher.
CME: Tentatively in mid-January. Started higher without the full 50 day EMA test.
CMTL: Struggling to get back through the 18 day EMA.
CNMD: All the way to the 200 day SMA, but this may be where it sets up for the next move higher.
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Undercut the 50 day EMA on strong volume. Will have to recover quickly.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05. Sliced through the 50 day EMA. Needs to make a quick recovery.
EASI: Still holding just above the 50 day EMA.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
FDX: Still holding the 50 day EMA and looking for the strong move higher.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Has filled the gap higher.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05. Undercut the 50 day EMA and we had to exit.
LEH: Ready to make the next breakout from its 10 month cup with handle base.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. Is testing the next move, setting up the rebound.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05. Nice blast higher.
MKC: Forecast mid-February.
NKE: Researching exact date.
PFCB: Forecast to announce a split 1-2005. Struggling below the 50 day EMA.
RGS: Forecast 1-26-05. Ugly drop.
SBUX: Forecast 1-5-05. No split announced. Sold on less than double digit sales growth, the second such month in three. For SBUX, single digit is bad as it only has reported double digit gains to this point. We exited.
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Testing the 18 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05. Nice 50 day EMA test.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
OMC (Omnicom Group--$84.92; +0.77; optionable): Advertising. Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in December 1997 at $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. OMC is at the cusp of the breakout from its 12 month base. Volume was up the past three sessions as it moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (83.83); very good relative strength as OMC takes measure of the breakout. Positive accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. Money flow is outstanding. Ready for a strong breakout move to enter positions.
Volume: 1.196M Avg Volume: 918.5K
BUY POINT: $85.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$98 Stop=$83.48
POSITION: OMC DQ - Apr. $85c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/omc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$76.38; +0.18; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 2-2-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $76.34
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good action Tuesday but not enough volume to hold the move through the buy point. Still a very nice 7 month base sporting positive 7 to 6 accumulation. Nice low volume handle and now volume is moving higher as it shows signs of preparing for the breakout.
Volume: 946.823K Avg Volume: 1.07M
BUY POINT: $77.38 Volume=1.6M Target=$87.55 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ EO - May $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
MKC (McCormick & Company--$37.71; +0.2; optionable): The spice company. Tentatively forecast in mid-February but working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-19-02 at $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong breakout in mid-December has come back with a nice, low volume test. It has held the breakout while also holding just above the 50 day EMA (37.24). Volume has ramped up as it tests this level, showing buyers supporting at the 50 day. This breakout was from its 5 week lateral flying plateau that formed after the early November breakout from a 14 week ascending base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout. Looking for a strong volume move through the 18 day EMA (38.01).
Volume: 373.2K Avg Volume: 324.954K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=400K Target=$46.48 Stop=$37.52
POSITION: MKC CG - Mar. $35c (98 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mkc.html
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$88.22; -0.11; optionable): Sports apparel, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
After Hours: $88.13
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NKE has come back to make a full test of the breakout, filling the mid-December gap higher. It is showing a nice tight doji over the 50 day EMA (86.57), often an indication that a pullback is coming to an end. Looking for a split and a run to $100. This is a continuation of the October breakout from a 26 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (77.24) as support. Strong money flow and relative strength. Looking for volume to jump back up as it rebounds through the 18 day EMA (89.28).
Volume: 1.114M Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: New: 89.75 (orig. $91.88) Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$89.25
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
CMC (Commercial Metals--$49.43; +1.25; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 1-11-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Has held its ground well as the market sold, moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (47.86), holding the breakout in this two week move consolidating the strong mid-December breakout. Again, its refusal to give up its gains shows no one wants to sell it. Strong money flow and buying. Looking for a move higher this week as its pre-split run commences.
Volume: 558.1K Avg Volume: 348.727K
BUY POINT: $50.75 Volume=500K Target=$57 Stop=$48.97
POSITION: CMC CJ - Mar. $50c (88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$66.63; -0.09; optionable): ITS services. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. After a solid October breakout and subsequent run, NCR needed a deeper breather, and it is taking it. But, it is not tanking, instead holding at some support at 65 form a lateral move in early December. Showed a nice doji with tail Thursday, tapping 65 on the low and rebounding on rising volume. Looking for a strong move through the 10 day EMA (67.87) to enter.
Volume: 767.5K Avg Volume: 931.636K
BUY POINT: New positions: $67.98 (orig$69.88) Volume=1.1M Target=$78 Stop=$67.85
POSITION: NCR BN - Feb. $70c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$63.60; -0.12; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice 18 day EMA (63.27) test, showing a doji that tapped that level on the session low. A doji after a pullback often indicates a rebound is coming. BCR broke out sharply in mid-December, surging from 60 to 64 when it forecast strong 14+% growth in 2005. That broke it out from a 26 week double bottom sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong net buying during the base set up the breakout. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well corroborates the move. Has made the test and now is ready to move.
Volume: 466.6K Avg Volume: 571.727K
BUY POINT: $65.32 Volume=725K Target=$74.75 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: BCR DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
