|
|
us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: RCI; GOOG
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CYCL (Centennial Communications--$8.03; +0.27; no options): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cycl.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume surged Friday as CYCL started back up from the test of the breakout from its 11 month double bottom with handle base. Strong 13 to 7 accumulation in the base shows strong buying. Money flow is excellent, moving higher ahead of price. Relative strength broke out as well, confirming the move. Friday CYCL gapped higher at the open in a fairly wild session that saw it sell but rally back to hold its gain. Looking for a continued move from here on more solid volume.
Volume: 929.883K Avg Volume: 162.454K
BUY POINT: $8.21 Volume=250K Target=$9.88 Stop=$7.66
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cycl.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/05/2005
BAX (Baxter Intl.--$35.48; +0.42; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was solid all week as BCR moved higher instead of lower as did most of the market. Friday BAX moved through our buy point but gave back half the gain on the close. Still looks ready for us to initiation positions on a continued volume move. Ready to resume the early December breakout move from its 24 week double bottom with handle base sporting excellent 9 to 3 accumulation. Strong money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 3.092M Avg Volume: 2.095M
BUY POINT: $35.65 (orig. 35.11) Volume=3M Target=$42 Stop=$34.11
POSITION: BAX EG - May $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bax.html
Play Date: 01/04/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$46.31; -0.65; optionable): Application software
After Hours: $46.31
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still ready to make the move even though HYSL eased back Friday to close right at the 10 day EMA (46). Still a very nice 5 week pattern sporting solid 2 to 0 accumulation. A nice pattern to test the breakout from a 4.5 month base in November, that pattern sporting solid 7 to 5 accumulation. Solid money flow is leading toward an all-time high.
Volume: 807.116K Avg Volume: 678.318K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=850K Target=$55 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: WQE EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
Play Date: 01/06/2005
WGII (Washington Group--$41.2; -0.22; optionable): International provider of design, engineering, construction management, mining, environmental remediation, etc. services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgii.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume backed off to average Friday as WGII eased back from its solid Thursday move. It is ready to resume the breakout move from its 10 month base in late December. Accumulation is a strong 14 to 10, money flow is moving up ahead of price, and relative strength is breaking out. Solid pattern.
Volume: 213.46K Avg Volume: 200.772K
BUY POINT: $41.65 Volume=296K Target=$48 Stop=$39.97
POSITION: QUG FH - June $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wgii.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05. Easing back some from the big Thursday move. Looking for it to fill the gap and bounce. That is the next entry point ahead of split forecast.
BSC: Researching the next date. Looks ready for the move off the 50 day EMA.
CME: Forecast 1-25-05. Eased back Friday. Want to see that full 50 day EMA test to give us the next entry point.
CMTL: Struggling to get back through the 18 day EMA.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. Bounced some off the 200 day SMA on lower volume. Needs to clear 28.50 on volume.
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Undercut the 50 day EMA on strong volume. Will have to recover quickly.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05. Bounced a bit Friday after holding some support at 105. Needs to get back through the 50 day.
EASI: Forecast early February but have been unable to pinpoint the date yet. Still holding just above the 50 day EMA.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
FDX: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Tried to bounce off the 50 day EMA, but faded back on the close.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05. Trying to regroup over the 50 day to give us another entry point.
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Starting to move higher after filling the gap.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05. Looking ugly below the 50 day EMA.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05
IR: Forecast 2-1-05. Desperately trying to hold the 50 day EMA.
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05. Waiting to see if it can form back up and retake the 50 day EMA.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. On the verge of the next breakout.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. Still testing back to the 50 day EMA on lower volume last week.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05.
MKC: Forecast mid-February. Starting back up off the 50 day EMA.
NKE: Researching exact date.
OMC: Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
PFCB: Forecast to announce 2-16-05 before the open. Still struggling at the 50 day EMA after a nasty drop Wednesday.
SBUX: Forecast 1-26-05. Will have to set up and recover a bit better. Sales have been declining the past two of three months so an earnings play may not be what we want on this one.
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
TTC: Setting up for the next move.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05. Still testing the 50 day EMA as volume has bumped higher.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05. Another industrial testing the 50 day EMA.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05. Holding the 50 day EMA after the strop last week.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CPS (Choicepoint--$45.18; -0.05; optionable): Identification and credential verification services. Forecast 1-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split on 4-25-02 at $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cps.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CPS sold back last week, but as with most of the stronger stocks, the volume was relatively low as it came back to test near support at the 18 day EMA (44.99). A very nice 6.5 month base sporting solid 8 to 5 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow. Nice doji at the 18 day Friday, and after a pullback that can indicate a time for a rebound. Looking for volume to rally with the stock to give us an entry point ahead of the forecast date.
Volume: 157.1K Avg Volume: 256.5K
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=400K Target=$52 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: CPS DI - Apr. $45c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cps.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
JAH (Jarden--$44.22; +0.74; optionable): Home products: plastics, cutlery, canning, matches, rope, etc. Forecast 1-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-31-03 at $41.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged last week, but it was not the selling volume that most of the market endured. JAH moved off an 18 day EMA (42.56) test on rising trade, clearing the December high on the close. This follows the mid-December volume breakout from an 8 month cup with handle base sporting strong 10 to 6 accumulation. A good two week lateral move set up the next move, and we are looking to pick it off as it continues higher on solid trade. The first test of the breakout is one of our favorite entry points as it shows buyers are still ready to move in even at this higher price.
Volume: 544.6K Avg Volume: 286.409K
BUY POINT: $44.55 Volume=400K Target=$51 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: JAH DI - Apr. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$57.60; +1.33; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast 2-2-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2003 at $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. SSI has formed this small 6 week base above the 50 day EMA (55.34), making higher lows above that key support level. This short base is consolidating the September breakout from a 10 month base. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Volume surged Friday as the stock gapped up off the 50 day and cleared the 18 day EMA (58.97). Looking for a volume move through 58 to give us the entry point.
Volume: 928.8K Avg Volume: 348K
BUY POINT: $58.12 Volume=500K Target=$65.65 Stop=$56.75
POSITION: SSI DK - Apr. $55c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$15.58; -0.08; no options): Outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics. Researching to pinpoint a date, but a good pattern we wanted to get on the report.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. USPH is a thinly traded stock w/low average daily trade, but it is in a nice 12 month base sporting excellent 19 to 4 accumulation. Lots of buyers during the base accumulating the stock. Looking for volume to jump higher and provide the breakout to give us an entry point.
Volume: 9.55K Avg Volume: 35.363K
BUY POINT: $15.92 Volume=53K Target=$19 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usph.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
ESRX (Express Scripts--$76.84; +0.46; optionable): Mail order prescription plans. Forecast 2-2-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in February 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
After Hours: $76.80
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still holding up well over the 18 day EMA (76.05) as it works on the handle to its 7 month base. Being patient and letting it show us the breakout. It ignored all of the volatility last week, a very good sign.
Volume: 369.019K Avg Volume: 1.079M
BUY POINT: $77.38 Volume=1.6M Target=$87.55 Stop=$75.38
POSITION: XTQ EO - May $75c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
MKC (McCormick & Company--$38.06; +0.35; optionable): The spice company. Tentatively forecast in mid-February but working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-19-02 at $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Coming off the 50 day EMA (37.27) on some rising, above average volume. Very good action in an otherwise weak market: good test, that held key support at the 50 day and the top of the November consolidation. This breakout was from its 5 week lateral flying plateau that formed after the early November breakout from a 14 week ascending base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern set up the breakout.
Volume: 403K Avg Volume: 327.454K
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=400K Target=$46.48 Stop=$37.52
POSITION: MKC CG - Mar. $35c (98 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mkc.html
Play Date: 01/06/2005
OMC (Omnicom Group--$85.07; +0.15; optionable): Advertising. Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in December 1997 at $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Edged a bit higher Friday but volume slipped to average. Still very solid, refusing to sell off last week during the market volatility. Solid 12 month base with money flow surging higher ahead of price. With the advertising market strong, we anticipate OMC is going to breakout and follow that money higher.
Volume: 911.3K Avg Volume: 922.681K
BUY POINT: $85.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$98 Stop=$83.48
POSITION: OMC DQ - Apr. $85c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/omc.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/04/2005
CMC (Commercial Metals--$49.1; -0.33; optionable): Steel and iron. Splits 2:1 on 1-11-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Splits early this week, and it has not backed off from its mid-December breakout, holding over the 18 day EMA (47.99) as it moves laterally. Looking for a pre-split move to start Monday. Gapped higher Friday but the market was not ready.
Volume: 466.1K Avg Volume: 357.181K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=500K Target=$57 Stop=$48.97
POSITION: CMC CJ - Mar. $50c (88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmc.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$63.73; +0.13; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. AS the market sold early in the week BCR tried the breakout. It faded back as volume faded to close the week, but very nice action. Holding at the 18 day EMA (63.32) in a narrow range as money flow moves higher ahead of the price. BCR broke out sharply in mid-December, surging from 60 to 64 when it forecast strong 14+% growth in 2005. That broke it out from a 26 week double bottom sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong net buying during the base set up the breakout. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout as well corroborates the move. Looks very strong and just waiting for the bounce higher from here.
Volume: 332.6K Avg Volume: 572.409K
BUY POINT: $65.32 Volume=725K Target=$74.75 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: BCR DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
top stock pick
|
