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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AAPL; GOOG; GPN; PRE; WMS
Best Plays:
1) CHT: Volume surged Friday as it nears the breakout from its 6 week lateral move.
2) NOVA: Holding the 18 day EMA as it tests the breakout.
3) NRGN: Volume is moving higher as it moves higher, not lower.
4) BAX: Volume remains strong.
5) HYSL: Still at the ready to make the next good move.
6) IMGN: Nice test of the 18 day EMA on low volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CCRT (Compucredit Corp.--$27; +1.30; optionable): Credit & financial services to the underserved or sub-prime consumer credit market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Solid volume Friday as CCRT continued the move off the test of the breakout from its 14 month cup with handle base. Excellent 14 to 5 accumulation (14 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid net buying during the long base, setting up the breakout move. CCRT sold with the market early last week, but volume was still well below average. That shows few sellers unloading their positions bought during the base and breakout. Money flow is rallying higher ahead of price even as the stock tested. Ready to move in on a further volume move.
Volume: 330.784K Avg Volume: 154.909K
BUY POINT: $27.44 Volume=232K Target=$41.45 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: CUE DE - Apr. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccrt.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$21.03; +0.40; optionable): Taiwan telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Flat base. Another telecom working in a flat base, this one a 6 week pattern over the 18 day EMA (20.75) on nice, low volume, even during the early week selling last week. Volume did jump, but that was on Friday as CHT moved off the 18 day EMA and posted a nice gain as it nears a breakout from this trading range. This current base follows the late October breakout from a 7 month double bottom with handle base. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the prior base and 2 to 0 in the current base shows net buyers moving into the stock. Excellent money flow is moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout, a good corroboration of the move, as CHT readies for a breakout to an all-time high.
Volume: 589K Avg Volume: 256K
BUY POINT: $21.45 Volume=384K Target=$25 Stop=$20.59
POSITION: CHT FD - June $20c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cht.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
NOVA (Novamed Eyecare--$6.20; +0.01; no options): Eye surgery centers in 14 states.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nova.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NOVA suffered some selling last week, but it held the 18 day EMA (6.13), showing a doji at that level that also roughly coincides with some price support at 6. A doji after a pullback often indicates a rebound is ready to begin; think of it as a shift in momentum from sellers to buyers. This test follows a nice volume run in December after a breakout from an 11 month cup with handle base sporting strong 12 to 6 accumulation. This is the first serious test of the breakout, and if we see volume move back above average as it resumes the break higher we will know buyers are moving back in and we will be ready to move in as well.
Volume: 112.629K Avg Volume: 117.409K
BUY POINT: $6.38 Volume=176K Target=$7.88 Stop=$6.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nova.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
NRGN (Neurogen--$9.78; +0.42; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nrgn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume started to move higher last week as NRGN came off the bottom of the handle to its 9 month base. The handle, the point where the last sellers get frustrated and bail out, held the 18 day EMA (9.20) on the lows, a good sign. Excellent 11 to 5 accumulation shows plenty of buyers, and money flow is surging higher ahead of price. The first nice base off of the long decline in the stock. Not going to argue with the strong money flow and great accumulation.
Volume: 123.972K Avg Volume: 66.772K
BUY POINT: $9.96 Volume=125K Target=$11.95 Stop=$9.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nrgn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 12/21/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$9.02; -0.17; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
After Hours: $8.96
STATUS: STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Friday but could not hold the move as volume remained below average. Still holding at support over 9 and near the 18 day EMA (9.12). Still in the handle to its 8 month base sporting strong 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to hold up very well ahead of price. Need a strong volume move through the buy point to enter.
Volume: 148.42K Avg Volume: 174.5K
BUY POINT: $9.57 Volume=375K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: AUQ EB - May $10c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 01/05/2005
AV (Avaya--$16.71; -0.08; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/av.html
After Hours: $16.95
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a low volume test of the December move, forming a second handle to the 11 month base sporting strong 10 to 6 accumulation. Volume was up early last week but the stock did not sell hard; indeed, it tried a breakout but just could not hold it. A very nice pattern that is looking for a new high on a breakout. Just being patient and letting this test run its course.
Volume: 1.807M Avg Volume: 4.145M
BUY POINT: $17.81 Volume=6.3M Target=$21.42 Stop=$16.84
POSITION: AV FW - Apr. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/av.html
Play Date: 01/05/2005
BAX (Baxter Intl.--$35.48; +0.42; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was solid all week as BCR moved higher instead of lower as did most of the market. Friday BAX moved through our buy point but gave back half the gain on the close. Still looks ready for us to initiation positions on a continued volume move. Ready to resume the early December breakout move from its 24 week double bottom with handle base sporting excellent 9 to 3 accumulation. Strong money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 3.092M Avg Volume: 2.095M
BUY POINT: $35.65 (orig. 35.11) Volume=3M Target=$42 Stop=$34.11
POSITION: BAX EG - May $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bax.html
Play Date: 01/04/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$46.31; -0.65; optionable): Application software
After Hours: $46.31
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still ready to make the move even though HYSL eased back Friday to close right at the 10 day EMA (46). Still a very nice 5 week pattern sporting solid 2 to 0 accumulation. A nice pattern to test the breakout from a 4.5 month base in November, that pattern sporting solid 7 to 5 accumulation. Solid money flow is leading toward an all-time high.
Volume: 807.116K Avg Volume: 678.318K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=850K Target=$55 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: WQE EI - May $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hysl.html
Play Date: 01/05/2005
IMGN (Immunogen--$8.04; -0.41; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgn.html
After Hours: $7.96
STATUS: Test breakout. IMGN sold back with the market last week, but volume was just modestly higher and well below the recent breakout volume, and it held the 18 day EMA (7.94) on the test. A nice 8.5 month base that is the first nice pattern off of a 2 year decline. Solid 9 to 7 accumulation and extremely strong money flow. Very sweet underpinnings. Looking for volume to jump back above average as IMGN moves off of the 18 day.
Volume: 199.212K Avg Volume: 258.09K
BUY POINT: $8.55 Volume=383K Target=$10.68 Stop=$8.04
POSITION: GMU DU - Apr. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imgn.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$6.17; -0.06; no options): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
After Hours: $6.21
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still holding the handle to its 11 month base, ending the week on lower, below average volume. Nice 11 to 6 accumulation has set up the move, and now we just need be patient and see if it shows us the breakout move.
Volume: 171.201K Avg Volume: 245.363K
BUY POINT: $6.54 Volume=350K Target=$7.89 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kool.html
Play Date: 12/22/2004
NEOL (Neopharm--$11.9; -0.39; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neol.html
STATUS: Cup. Still holding near the 18 day EMA (12.12) as NEOL makes the pullback to test the jump up through the 200 day SMA (10.63). It is working on the right side of its base, easing back on low volume. Money flow continues to hold well above the price, and the low volume indicates few sellers as it makes this test. Waiting for it to continue the break higher, but losing some patience. That it did not fold the tent last week with the rest of the market is a good sign.
Volume: 119.249K Avg Volume: 255.318K
BUY POINT: New: $12.45 (orig. $13.12) Volume=450K Target=$16 Stop=$12.32
POSITION: UOE DV - Apr. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neol.html
Play Date: 12/27/2004
NTES (Netease.com--$51.93; +0.05; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Sold back to test the 50 day EMA (49.95) last week, but volume remained well below average as it made the test, indicating few sellers in this stock as compared to the market. Still working laterally and slightly lower in the 8 week handle to its 9 month base. Needs to show us a really strong breakout move, i.e. really strong volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 529.362K Avg Volume: 1.103M
BUY POINT: $53.15 Volume=1.2M Target=$63 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: NQG CJ - Mar. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Play Date: 12/29/2004
VISG (Visage Technology--$8.27; +0.03; optionable): Identification solutions for government, law enforcement, private business
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/visg.html
STATUS: Cup. VISG is working on the right side of its 9 month cup base, but that has taken a detour the past week as VISG fell back to the 50 day EMA (7.99) last week. Very low volume, however, so it was not a dumping of the stock, just a pullback with the market. Showed a nice tight doji at that level. With the strong money flow leading higher and excellent 11 to 3 accumulation we are looking for a volume rebound to take the stock up through the short term MA (10 day EMA at 8.59).
Volume: 749.223K Avg Volume: 1.008M
BUY POINT: New: $8.69 (orig. $9.75) Volume=1.3M Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.07
POSITION: TUM DU - Apr. $7.50c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/visg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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