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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CREAF; CYC; JAH; MGG
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/11/2005
MIK (Michaels--$30.87; +0.53; optionable): Hobby and crafts. Split 2:1 in October.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Not a textbook double bottom pattern, but it used the 200 day SMA (27.38) as support for the two downside legs. Volume was very low in the early January market selling. MIK used it to pullback on lower volume, form the handle, and then start back up on rising trade. Good move Tuesday on solid trade. Looking for a breakout from the 13 week base this week. This takes it to a new all-time high. A perennial market leader that has come back to life.
Volume: 823.2K Avg Volume: 868.772K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$37 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: MIF FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05. Tapped the 10 day on the low, filling the gap. Will be ready to bounce soon.
BSC: Researching the next date. Holding the 18 day EMA on below average volume.
CME: Forecast 1-25-05. Has almost made the full 50 day EMA test we are looking for.
CMTL: Decided to fade to the 50 day EMA.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. Still struggling to get off the 200 day SMA.
CPS: Forecast 1-26-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Trying to hold some support at 90.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05. Sliding lower after failing to retake the 50 day EMA.
EASI: Forecast early February but have been unable to pinpoint the date yet. Testing the 50 day EMA and rebounding sharply.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
FDX: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05. Bombs away. Not giving us any upside entry point.
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Holding the 50 day EMA after filling the big gap higher.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05. Sold to the 200 day SMA on rising trade ahead of the potential announcement.
IR: Forecast 2-1-05. Still desperately trying to hold the 50 day EMA.
JAH: Forecast 1-26-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05. Still waiting to see if it can form back up and retake the 50 day EMA.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Starting higher on volume.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. And continues to hold the 50 day EMA, trying to set up for the next move.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05. Nothing Tuesday re a split. Looking at 2-1-05 as next potential date.
MKC: Forecast mid-February. Took a breather, trying to make the break.
NKE: Researching exact date.
OMC: Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
PFCB: Forecast to announce 2-16-05 before the open. And still below the 50 day EMA.
SBUX: Forecast 1-26-05. Not setting back up for us very well. Big doji at the 50 day EMA after another rough session Monday. Those declining sales are very hard on a stock.
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05. Needs some work.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
SSI: Forecast 2-2-05
TTC: Setting up for the next move. Nice action at the 18 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
USPH: Researching exact date.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05. Still testing the 50 day EMA.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05. Trying to bounce ahead of the date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Some great market leaders setting up well.
Play Date: 01/11/2005
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$67.13; +0.07; optionable): Business management services. Forecast 1-24-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A market leader that is taking a 7 week break, forming a flat base along the 50 day EMA (65.40) on mostly below average volume. Despite the high volume market selling to start the month EXPD has shown positive price/volume action with volume sharply higher on up sessions and lower on the down side sessions. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move showing nothing but buyers as this leader forms a new shallow base following the May breakout and run into November. Strong money flow is leading higher even as it bases, a good positive divergence.
Volume: 190.53K Avg Volume: 248.909K
BUY POINT: $68.05 Volume=373K Target=$74 Stop=$66.28
POSITION: EBU CM - Mar. $65c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exbd.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$45.64; +0.44; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped above average Tuesday as ORLY headed toward the breakout from its 6.5 month base. The handle of the base is a 7 week cup with handle. Accumulation in the bigger base is a solid 8 to 4 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating solid net buying during the base. Money flow is excellent, leading the stock higher. Ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 470.204K Avg Volume: 333.863K
BUY POINT: $45.92 Volume=501K Target=$53 Stop=$44.39
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 01/11/2004
WAT (Waters Corp.--$47.16; +1.06; optionable): Analytical instrument manufacturer. Forecast to announce a split on 1-17-05 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-13-00 in conjunction with a board meeting at $136. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in conjunction with a board meeting on 2-26-99 at $90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wat.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very solid volume this month with volume jumping Tuesday as WAT moved off the 50 day EMA (45.83), preparing the breakout from its 6.5 month base. Outstanding 8 to 2 accumulation in the base has set the foundation for the breakout. Looking for WAT to ride the improved volume higher for the breakout.
Volume: 1.019M Avg Volume: 605.409K
BUY POINT: $47.72 Volume=910K Target=$57.89 Stop=$45.77
POSITION: WAT EI - May $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wat.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$88.15; -0.42; optionable): Sports apparel, gold equipment, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA. Still testing the 50 day EMA, easing back slightly Tuesday on low volume, showing a hammer doji. It has filled the gap from the big gap up in December on those strong earnings. Looks ready to resume the move.
Volume: 764K Avg Volume: 1.182M
BUY POINT: $89.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$88.89
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nke.html
Play Date: 01/06/2005
OMC (Omnicom Group--$85.06; -0.11; optionable): Advertising. Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in December 1997 at $75.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (84.41) as volume improves with up volume on upside sessions and lower on downside sessions. Very solid action in a very solid 12 month base with money flow surging higher ahead of price. Looks very good from this advertiser expecting a further strong market in 2005.
Volume: 921.8K Avg Volume: 926.681K
BUY POINT: $85.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$98 Stop=$83.48
POSITION: OMC DQ - Apr. $85c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/omc.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$58.44; +0.63; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast 2-2-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2003 at $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. SSI is on the verge of a breakaway move out of its 6 week base that formed after a strong run from the prior breakout back in September. Excellent action as the base formed over the 50 day EMA (55.55), an important institutional support level. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good sign of overall strength. Looking for another volume surge as it breaks away from this base and onto a new high.
Volume: 390.1K Avg Volume: 359.636K
BUY POINT: $58.12 Volume=500K Target=$65.65 Stop=$56.75
POSITION: SSI DK - Apr. $55c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$15.44; -0.19; no options): Outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics. Researching to pinpoint a date, but a good pattern we wanted to get on the report.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 5-32-01 at $29.50. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 12/13/00 at $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji over the 50 day EMA (15.26) as USPH continues to work on the 9 week handle to its nicely formed 12 month base. Excellent 19 to 4 accumulation in the base has set up the move as there are practically all buyers of the stock. Being patient and waiting for volume to jump on the breakout move.
Volume: 16.298K Avg Volume: 35.136K
BUY POINT: $15.92 Volume=53K Target=$19 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usph.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2005
NCR (NCR Corp.--$67.19; +0.03; optionable): ITS software. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Pre-split. NCR tried to make the move through the 18 day EMA (67.32) but volume failed it and it stalled out the move. Still looks solid as it held support at 65 and bounced on solid trade Monday. Good test of support after the excellent late November to December run to 70. Money flow has turned up ahead of the price even as it made the pullback, a very strong upside signal. Now just waiting for the stock to move through the 18 day EMA on strong, above average volume.
Volume: 656.2K Avg Volume: 921.09K
BUY POINT: $67.65 Volume=1M Target=$74.75 Stop=$66.97
POSITION: NCR DM - Apr. $65c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$62.8; +0.1; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BCR fell below the 18 day EMA (63.21) where it was forming a lateral 3 week consolidation of the mid-December break higher. BCR broke out sharply in mid-December, surging from 60 to 64 when it forecast strong 14+% growth in 2005. That broke it out from a 26 week double bottom sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong net buying during the base set up the breakout. Money flow remains very strong even as the stock moved back to test the breakout. Bounced up off of 62 Tuesday on continued strong, above average trade. Looking for a move back through the 18 day EMA to enter positions.
Volume: 733.7K Avg Volume: 565.454K
BUY POINT: $63.57 Volume=725K Target=$74.75 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: BCR DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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