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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2005
DVA (Davita--$41.20; -0.20; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DVA is a post split (split 3:2 in June) that broke out from a 7 month base in early December, surging on very strong volume. this is the second test of that breakout move, the stock easing back from 42 on lower volume after surging higher last week on stronger trade. We are looking for a bit more pullback here down toward the 10 day EMA (40.48). After a test of that level we will look to move in on a rebound that shows volume moving back above average.
Volume: 547.6K Avg Volume: 941.545K
BUY POINT: Test toward $40.48, then $40.88 on the rebound. Volume=100K Target=$49 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: DVA DH - Apr. $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2005
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$8.73; -0.08; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
After Hours: $8.74
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice, easy pullback to the 10 day EMA (8.60) as ALNY tests the breakout from a 7 month cup with handle base. ALNY basically formed the base from its IPO in June. Nice volume breakout this month, rallying to 11 and then fading back this week on lower volume to the 10 day. Strong money flow and excellent relative strength. Looking for volume to kick in as it rebounds off the 10 day. That would be an excellent entry point as the first breakout test is one of our favorite buy points.
Volume: 120.851K Avg Volume: 116.272K
BUY POINT: $9.05 Volume=200K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alny.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-05. Has made the test and filled the gap.
BSC: Researching the next date. Has dumped to the 50 day EMA on rising trade.
CME: Forecast 1-25-05. Doji at the 50 day EMA. May be ready to rebound.
CMTL: Still testing the 50 day EMA.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. Continues struggling at the 200 day SMA.
CPS: Forecast 1-26-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Bouncing but not looking great as ran into resistance at 94.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05. Turning lower on volume after a failed 50 day EMA test.
EASI: Forecast early February. Still working on a new handle.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
EXBD: Forecast 1-24-05
FDX: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05. Ready to drop and let it set back up.
FLO: Forecast 2-3-05. Needs to form back up and will drop until then.
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Still holding over the 50 day EMA.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05. Gapping higher and over the 50 day EMA.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05. No announcement and still trying to hold the 200 day SMA.
IR: Forecast 2-1-05. Not showing a lot at the 50 day EMA.
JAH: Forecast 1-26-05
KMRT: Tentatively looking at 3-16-05. Unable to retake the 50 day EMA. Going to drop and let it form back up.
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. Still working laterally over the 50 day EMA. Letting it set back up.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05. No split but very strong and letting it test and set up next move.
MKC: Forecast mid-February. Took a breather, trying to make the break.
NKE: Researching exact date.
OMC: Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
PFCB: Forecast to announce 2-16-05 before the open. Looking weak below the 50 day. Going to drop and let it set back up.
SBUX: Forecast 1-26-05. Has not found bottom. Will drop and let form back up.
SNS: Forecast 1-20-05. Dropping until it shows us something.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05
SSI: Forecast 2-2-05
TTC: Setting up for the next move. Still looks good over the 18 day EMA.
UPS: Forecast 1-27-05. Nasty gap lower on the warning. That pretty much settles the issue of a split.
USPH: Researching exact date.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05. Trying to bounce off the 50 day.
WAT: Forecast 1-17-05.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: Forecast tentatively on 1-12-05. No announcement but still holding the 50 day.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2005
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$48.90; +0.44; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast 2-24-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 1-22-01 at $44. Before that it has 3 more splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $49
STATUS: Breakout test. AEOS surged first week of January on work its December sales were stellar. That broke it higher, clearing 50. It has faded back to the 10 day EMA (48.25) on lower volume, filling the gap as it holds over 47.50, the late December high. The stock is a bit extended, but we are looking for a run toward the forecast split date to give us a nice little play.
Volume: 1.472M Avg Volume: 1.465M
BUY POINT: $49.15 Volume=1.8M Target=$56 Stop=$47.35
POSITION: AQU EJ - May $50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 01/13/2005
TBL (Timberland--$63.93; +0.11; optionable): Apparel and footwear. Forecast 1-20-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 5-18-00 before the open at $71.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A very quiet and flat low volume move along the 50 day EMA (63.51) the past four weeks as TBL forms the right shoulder to a 9 month base. Good quiet action shakes out the sellers, frustrating the last ones as the stock moves laterally on low volume; dulls them to death. Strong 11 to 6 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in this accumulation pattern. Money flow has turned higher the past two weeks, starting to rise ahead of price. That positive divergence sets up the breakout move.
Volume: 312K Avg Volume: 333.363K
BUY POINT: $64.65 Volume=500K Target=$74.88 Stop=$63.38
POSITION: TBL EM - May $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tbl.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$88.02; -0.57; optionable): Sports apparel, gold equipment, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
After Hours: $87.93
STATUS: 50 day EMA. NKE refuses to sell off, holding the 50 day EMA (86.87) on low volume. It has filled the December gap higher on the excellent earnings news. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. Looking for the stock to move higher and follow the money. Need to see a strong, above average volume move through the 18 day EMA (88.83).
Volume: 742K Avg Volume: 1.188M
BUY POINT: $89.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$88.89
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nke.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$45.84; -0.18; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume has jumped above average the past three sessions as ORLY bumps its head at 46, just not quite able to make the breakout move out of its 7 week cup with handle base that is acting as the handle to its 6.5 month base. Accumulation in the bigger base is a solid 8 to 4 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating solid net buying during the base. Money flow is excellent, moving higher ahead of stock. It is ready to make the move, but need to see it break through 46 on that strong trade.
Volume: 467.854K Avg Volume: 337.636K
BUY POINT: New: $46.32 (orig. $45.92) Volume=501K Target=$53 Stop=$44.39
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$58.4; -0.01; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast 2-2-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2003 at $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After the volume surge that pushed SSI off the 50 day EMA (55.77) as it made a higher low in its 6 week pattern, SSI has moved laterally this week as volume backs off. It is holding its move higher, riding along above the 18 day EMA (57.44) on that low trade. A higher low sets up the breakout. Strong money flow moving higher. Relative strength making the breakout already, a bullish sign. Looks ready. Just needs that volume to kick back up and send it to the breakout.
Volume: 288.9K Avg Volume: 371.5K
BUY POINT: New: $58.75 (orig. $58.12) Volume=500K Target=$65.65 Stop=$56.75
POSITION: SSI DK - Apr. $55c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$15.53; +0.14; no options): Outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics. Researching to pinpoint a date, but a good pattern we wanted to get on the report.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 5-32-01 at $29.50. Prior to that a 2:1 split on 12/13/00 at $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday as USPH gapped higher Thursday but could not hold the entire move. Still looks very good in the handle to its 12 month base. It is holding over the 50 day EMA (15.28), a good support level for the handle. Excellent 19 to 4 accumulation in the base has set up the move as there are practically all buyers of the stock. Volume has moved in. Looks ready.
Volume: 162.22K Avg Volume: 33.5K
BUY POINT: $15.92 Volume=53K Target=$19 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usph.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$50.09; -0.54; optionable): Personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ACV blasted out of a 5.5 month base first week of January, surging to 51 on strong volume. It has eased back to tap the 10 day EMA (49.87) on the Wednesday and Thursday lows, bouncing back to close. Excellent money flow is still out ahead of price. Very nice pullback and ready to make the break to a new all-time high.
Volume: 303.7K Avg Volume: 319.409K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=325K Target=$55 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: ACV FJ - June $50c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 01/03/2005
BCR (C.R. Bard--$64.62; -0.05; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong move off the 50 day EMA Wednesday ran out of some steam Thursday right at the December consolidation range. A good test of the mid-December blast higher on excellent volume as the stock broke out from a 6.5 month double bottom base. Nice test, good rebound, and looks ready for an all-time high. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) in that prior base.
Volume: 611.6K Avg Volume: 566.363K
BUY POINT: New: $64.95 (orig. $63.57) Volume=725K Target=$74.75 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: BCR DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
MIK (Michaels--$31; -0.12; optionable): Hobby and crafts. Split 2:1 in October.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving higher but the volume is not moving with it. Again, not a textbook double bottom pattern, but it used the 200 day SMA (27.45) as support for the two downside legs, setting up the move higher. Threw a doji Thursday as it tried the breakout, so may come back one more time before breaking back higher. Still looks ready, as it looks for an all-time high.
Volume: 758.9K Avg Volume: 851.5K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$37 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: MIF FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$23.71; +0.19; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice doji Thursday on low volume as PSUN continues to work on its week long handle to its short 10 week cup with handle base that is acting as the right shoulder to a larger 17 month reverse head and shoulders base. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the recent base shows solid buying. Getting ready for the break higher to a new all-time high from a perennial market leader.
Volume: 1.026M Avg Volume: 1.851M
BUY POINT: $24.28 Volume=2.8M Target=$28.48 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: PVQ FX - June $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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