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us stock market, stock ticker
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ASTM; IMAX; RSCR
Thursday night play results:
CRZO: Tried to continue the move, rallying over 12 but gave up most of the move. Needs to hold 11.50 and try again.
DUSA: Started to break higher but volume was not there.
PARL: Rallied further but it could not hold the move, sliding back to negative as volume backed way off.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
ESLR (Evergreen Solar--$4.83; +0.44; no options): Developing and marketing solar power products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eslr.html
After Hours: $4.84
STATUS: Breakout test. ESLR has strung together a couple of bases the past 8 months, breaking out of the first one in November, but then falling right back and forming a short 6 week pattern that broke out in late December on a strong volume surge. This month it has come back to test that move, dropping to support at 4, holding the 18 day EMA (4.22) on the close as it did. Volume was up Wednesday as it tested support and rebounded and then on Friday as ESLR cleared the December and early January breakout run highs. Solid 11 to 6 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) in the bases. Very strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength broke out as well, a very good corroboration of the breakout move as it shows the stock is outperforming the market.
Volume: 3.237M Avg Volume: 786.818K
BUY POINT: $4.89 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.15 Stop=$4.55
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/eslr.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
IPMT (Ipayment--$48.29; +1.15; no options): Card-based payment processing for small business
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipmt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IPMT exploded out of a 7 week reverse head and shoulders base to end December, reaching past 50 on the breakout move. It has spent the past three weeks easing back on lower volume to test the breakout, holding at the 18 day EMA (46.99) on the Thursday low, rebounding Friday on some better though still below average volume. The short base was part of a larger base on base pattern starting back in May. Accumulation in the short pattern is positive at 3 to 2; 6 to 2 in the larger pattern. Good buying that set up the breakout move. Money flow is excellent, holding up well on the pullback to test and leading higher. Relative strength broke out on the price move and is already heading higher as the stock comes off the 18 day EMA test.
Volume: 96.246K Avg Volume: 153.863K
BUY POINT: $48.98 Volume=225K Target=$56.38 Stop=$46.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ipmt.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
STEM (Stemcells--$5.24; -0.07; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stem.html
After Hours: $5.25
STATUS: Breakout test. STEM blasted out of an 8 week cup w/handle base, rallying on strong volume and then easing back on lower volume to test the move last week. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 1. The base formed over the 50 day EMA (3.79), a good big money support level. Strong money flow is leading it higher. Relative strength broke out on the early January move, showing the stock is outperforming the market. This is a great breakout test as volume dropped below average the last three sessions of the week as STEM tapped at the 10 day EMA (5.12); a great near support level for a strong breakout. Looking for volume to jump back above average as it resumes the move. That is when we enter.
Volume: 7.114M Avg Volume: 13.012M
BUY POINT: $5.55 Volume=15M Target=$6.98 Stop=$5.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stem.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
MTLM (Metal Management--$24.85; +0.43; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtlm.html
After Hours: $24.85
STATUS: Head and shoulders. MTLM based from March to October and broke out to start November, rallying to 27; after a quick test it continued up over 28. Then it started to sell harder, and that was even before the market started selling in early January. Looks as if that was the head with the peak in late November the left shoulder. MTLM sold on into early 2005, tried to hold the 50 day EMA (24.11) but failed. It bounced back up off of 22 last week, up to the 18 day EMA (25.02). Volume has backed off the past three sessions as it rallied up to that resistance level. Looks as if MTLM has run into resistance and is forming a lower right shoulder to the 7 week distribution pattern. Money flow is in the toilet and the selling to start last week was on the strongest volume of the past two months. Looking for it to fail here and fall back through the 50 day EMA on rising volume to open the play.
Volume: 212.72K Avg Volume: 523.045K
BUY POINT: $24.05 Volume=650K Target=$22 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: MQB NE - Feb. $25p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mtlm.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
JNPR: Stalling out at the 50 day EMA after rebounding to that level last week. It dumped hard to start the year. Unlike many stocks it was already trending lower; it was at the 50 day EMA and failed there to start the year. Looks ready to fail again and a downside candidate. Looking at some February $27.50p (-60 delta) if it turns and sells through 26.44 on continues above average volume.
MSFT: The six week pullback fell through the 50 day EMA Thursday and continued to sell Friday, both sessions on stronger, above average volume. Trying to hold some support at 26.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
SIM: Big break higher in late December, then a rollover to give it all back the first two weeks of January. It held the 50 day EMA Wednesday and reversed with much of the market. Continued bouncing Thursday and Friday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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