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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: BCR; CMC; JAH; SPLS; SSI; TBL
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
CPO (Corn Products--$54.21; +0.11; optionable): Corn refiner and supplier of food ingredients. Splits 2:1 on 1-26-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpo.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CPO has formed a neat little 6 week base as it gets ready for its pre-split run, using the 50 day EMA (52.52) in early January to set the second leg of the pattern. That triggered the rebound, and then the stock moved laterally last week over the 18 day EMA (53.66), forming the handle. Nice 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) in the short pattern shows it has been used for accumulating the stock as opposed to selling it. Money flow is strong and rising as the stock moves laterally, a further good indication of ongoing buying. Looking for volume to kick up as it continues the move.
Volume: 146.8K Avg Volume: 244.454K
BUY POINT: $54.85 Volume=300K Target=$60 Stop=$53.44
POSITION: CPO DK - Apr. $55c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpo.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
NMSS (Natural Microsystems--$6.81; -0.04; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmss.html
After Hours: $6.77
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged to end the week as NMSS started toward the breakout move from a nice and neat 8 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (6.02) as support. This is part of a larger 9 month double bottom with handle base sporting strong 10 to 5 accumulation; outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the small base. Money flow is running higher ahead of price. Ready to resume the move. Neat thing is, it can give us a very nice gain without ever having to break over the April 2004 high at 9.35.
Volume: 967.36K Avg Volume: 637.772K
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=957K Target=$8.65 Stop=$6.55
POSITION: QNM FA - June $5c (88 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nmss.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$43.9; +0.17; optionable): Card shuffling machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. A market leader and a pre-split, SHFL has nonetheless run into some trouble after a couple of years of gain. It rallied from a breakout tl just below 48 in early December, sold to the 50 day EMA (43.73), and then rebounded to 48 to end the year. The selling took SHFL lower on higher volume. It held the 50 day again and bounced just a bit, but fell through the 50 day last Wednesday when most of the market rallied. It bounced weakly to end the week. Looks ready to roll back over. A $2 move gives us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 223.766K Avg Volume: 604.181K
BUY POINT: $43.57 Volume=650K Target=$41.05 Stop=$44.68
POSITION: SFQ NI - Feb. $45p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/13/2005
ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals--$8.8; +0.07; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alny.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the orderly pullback to the 10 day EMA (8.64) following the breakout and run from its 7 month cup with handle base. ALNY started forming the base from its June IPO. Strong volume breakout that followed strong money flow higher. Very solid upside move and orderly pullback. Looking for volume to move back above average as it bounces up through 9.
Volume: 114.007K Avg Volume: 117.909K
BUY POINT: $9.05 Volume=200K Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.57
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/alny.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AEOS: Forecast 2-24-05.
CME: Forecast 1-25-05. Ready to move into positions off of this doji at the 50 day EMA (207.19). Looking at March $210c (CME CB, 50 delta) on a move over 209 on volume of 900K or better.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. Still struggling at the 200 day SMA.
CPS: Forecast 1-26-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Still trying to move off the 50 day EMA.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05. Struggling hard below the 50 day EMA.
EASI: Forecast early February. Has moved over the 18 day EMA but still working on the handle.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
EXBD: Forecast 1-24-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Has run into resistance near 57.50.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05. Moving up further after reversing Wednesday.
HDI: Forecast 1-12-05. Still at the 200 day SMA, showing doji at that level Friday.
IR: Forecast 2-1-05. Managed to recover the 50 day EMA Friday on low volume. Not ready for positions yet.
JAH: Forecast 1-26-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05. Waiting for some more accumulation to take new positions.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05. No split announced. Remains strong and setting up the next leg higher.
MKC: Forecast mid-February
NKE: Researching exact date.
OMC: Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05. Looks ready for the next move, bouncing off the 50 day on stronger volume Friday.
SSI: Forecast 2-2-05
TBL: Forecast 1-20-05
TTC: Nice bounce off the 18 day EMA Friday.
USPH: Researching exact date.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05. Still setting up for the move off the 50 day EMA.
WAT: Forecast 1-17-05. This is the week..
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: No announcement 1-12-05. Trying to bounce off the 50 day.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
EXPD (Expeditors Intl.--$55.16; +0.75; optionable): Air Deliver & Freight. Forecast 2-15-05 before the market opens.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-30-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $63.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/expd.html
After Hours: $55.10
STATUS: Cup. EXPD is in a 9 week cup base of sorts, forming most of the pattern over the 50 day EMA (54.44). It fell Wednesday and Thursday on the UPS news, but managed to hold this key support level. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of net buying in the base even with the fall to support last week. Looking for a strong volume rebound off this level to enter positions.
Volume: 657.667K Avg Volume: 983.363K
BUY POINT: $56.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$74.45 Stop=$55.21
POSITION: URP EK - May $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/expd.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
GOOG (Google--$199.97; +4.64; optionable): Internet search, etc. Forecast with earnings on 2-1-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No splits but has surged to near $200. Management has a 'small investor' mindset, and at $200 not many small investors can participate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $200.06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. New buy point. Taking another look at GOOG after it shook us out last week for a modest profit after an erroneous headline regarding the SEC settlement hit the wire and then was corrected later. In any event, GOOG held and bounced Friday on rising, average volume. It looks ready for the breakout from an 11 week base, the first base since it came public in August. Accumulation is a strong 4 to 0 in the base; despite all of the hesitancy and naysaying regarding the stock, there are no sellers. Looking for another good break over 200 on volume.
Volume: 9.644M Avg Volume: 10.839M
BUY POINT: $200.25 Volume=13K Target=$215 Stop=$194.25
POSITION: GOU CT - Mar. $200c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/goog.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/13/2005
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$48.85; -0.05; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast 2-24-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 1-22-01 at $44. Before that it has 3 more splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $48.81
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume surged Friday as AEOS continued to hold steady in its week long lateral move that is working to consolidate the strong surge when December sales were reported. It has filled the gap and is holding near support at the 10 day EMA (48.36). That strong volume indicates AEOS is gathering itself to resume the move higher. That is where we enter.
Volume: 3.581M Avg Volume: 1.473M
BUY POINT: $49.15 Volume=1.8M Target=$56 Stop=$47.35
POSITION: AQU EJ - May $50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$66.4; +0.57; optionable): Business management services. Forecast 1-24-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume was up Friday as EXBD moved off the 50 day EMA. It is in an 8 week lateral consolidation of its late October break higher that carried it almost to 70 at Thanksgiving. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to make a better move higher.
Volume: 244.259K Avg Volume: 248.181K
BUY POINT: $68.05 Volume=373K Target=$74 Stop=$66.28
POSITION: EBU CM - Mar. $65c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exbd.html
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$88.95; +0.93; optionable): Sports apparel, gold equipment, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA. NKE refused to sell off in the market decline, holding fast with a test of the 50 day EMA (86.95). Friday it looked quite good, moving through the 18 day EMA (88.84). Unfortunately volume was not moving with it. Still very solid, not selling off. Money flow continues to move higher. Just being patient and waiting for the volume to kick it down the home stretch. Or, waiting for NKE to just do it (Clich Saturday).
Volume: 561.1K Avg Volume: 1.184M
BUY POINT: $89.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$88.89
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nke.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$46.09; +0.25; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After good volume all last week it backed off Friday as ORLY peaked its head up over 46. With all of the solid upside trade last week, just looking for another good volume session as it continues higher. Nice little 7 week cup with handle base that is acting as the handle to its 6.5 month base. Accumulation in the bigger base is a solid 8 to 4 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating solid net buying during the base. Money flow remains excellent, moving higher ahead of stock. Again, just need to see some better trade on a continued move.
Volume: 183.321K Avg Volume: 344.5K
BUY POINT: New: $46.32 (orig. $45.92) Volume=501K Target=$53 Stop=$44.39
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2005
NCR (NCR Corp.--$65.15; -0.42; optionable): ITS software. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped the last three sessions of the week as NCR tested and held the 50 day EMA. Like to see volume jump as it tests this level as it shows big buyers stepping up to support the stock. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price, another good indication. Want to see continued strong volume as NCR moves further off the 50 day and through the 18 day EMA (66.70).
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 924.272K
BUY POINT: $67.65 Volume=1M Target=$74.75 Stop=$66.97
POSITION: NCR DM - Apr. $65c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$50.49; +0.40; optionable): Personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving off the 10 day EMA Friday after the test, but volume backed off after some good average showings mid-week. Still a very nice test of the breakout from its 5.5 month base with money flow continuing higher ahead of price. Looking for more volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 188.4K Avg Volume: 310.863K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=325K Target=$55 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: ACV FJ - June $50c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 01/13/2005
DVA (Davita--$42.00; +0.80; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DVA is a post split (split 3:2 in June) that broke out from a 7 month base in early December, surging on very strong volume. Moved up well Friday on some rising though still below average volume, not giving us a further test of the 10 day EMA. Just want to see some more volume as it continues the move off of the 10 day EMA (40.75) on this second test of the breakout. Excellent relative strength is making another breakout; that shows a strong stock.
Volume: 742.5K Avg Volume: 946.818K
BUY POINT: New: $42.28 9orig. $40.88. Volume=100K Target=$49 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: DVA DH - Apr. $40c (65 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$24.13; +0.42; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
After Hours: $24.09
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Surged Friday on nice, above average volume, but faded by the close, giving some of the move back. Looks very solid here in its week long handle to its short 10 week cup with handle base that is acting as the right shoulder to a larger 17 month reverse head and shoulders base. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the recent base shows solid buying. It is ready to make the move.
Volume: 2.242M Avg Volume: 1.773M
BUY POINT: $24.28 Volume=2.8M Target=$28.48 Stop=$23.05
POSITION: PVQ FX - June $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psun.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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