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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CPO; CREAF; GOOG; FLIR; NCR; PRFT; UTX; WFMI
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 01/18/2005
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.14; +1.14; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-22-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $40.16
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice jump off the 50 day EMA (39.02) Tuesday though volume did not rally with the stock. It has moved up to the November high on the close, ready to make an important move if it can get the volume. AMMD has made a series of bounces up off the 50 day, and looking for an entry point on this one if it can give us more trade as it moves.
Volume: 132.343K Avg Volume: 292.409K
BUY POINT: $40.54 Volume=450K Target=$45.55 Stop=$39.35
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ammd.html
Play Date: 01/18/2005
FDS (Factset Research--$55.92; +1.45; optionable): Financial intelligence information regarding stocks trading on world stock markets. Splits 3:2 on 2-7-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Nice volume Tuesday as FDS continued the Friday bounce off this key support level at the 50 day (53.28). Money flow is jumping ahead of price as it makes the move. This test was a successful test of the breakout from a 15 month base on base pattern that broke out in mid-December. Looks ready to bounce. Using options here to leverage our gain as not looking for a huge stock price move on this one.
Volume: 323.1K Avg Volume: 243.136K
BUY POINT: $56.15 Volume=300K Target=$60 Stop=$54.72
POSITION: FDS CK - Mar. $55c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
New buy point on existing pre-split:
Play Date: 01/18/2005
FLIR (Flir Systems--$60.30; +1.40; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 5-5-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Another stock testing the 50 day EMA (59.19) after a low volume pullback to test this key support level. This follows a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base that just about to yield the breakout in late December when the early 2005 selling started. Volume was lagging Tuesday as it made the move. Looking for more volume as it continues higher to give us another entry point as it comes off of this test of strong support.
Volume: 206.458K Avg Volume: 401K
BUY POINT: $60.72 Volume=425K Target=$66.95 Stop=$59.74
POSITION: FFQ DL - Apr. $60c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/18/2005
PNK (Pinnacle Entertainment--$17.85; +0.15; optionable): Gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pnk.html
After Hours: $18.09
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. PNK made us some money to end 2004, and it has set up to make us some more here. PNK is in a 3 week test of the early November breakout and run higher from an 8 month double bottom with handle base. Volume jumped up above average Tuesday as the stock showed a doji on the candlestick pattern right at the 50 day (17.90). That often suggests a pullback is over and the stock is ready to change directions, particularly with that stronger volume (buyers came in at this level to support it). Looking for a rebound on continuing volume to enter.
Volume: 478K Avg Volume: 244.636K
BUY POINT: $18.72 Volume=325K Target=$21.55 Stop=$17.88
POSITION: PNK FW - June $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pnk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AEOS: Forecast 2-24-05.
CME: Forecast 1-25-05. Still in the 50 day EMA test, showing a doji on some rising though stoll below average volume Tuesday. Want a strong move over 209 to take positions with March $210c (CME CB, 50 delta) on volume of 900K or better.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. Better volume off the 200 day SMA, trying to clear the 50 day.
CPS: Forecast 1-26-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
DGX: Forecast 1-27-05. Still at the 50 day EMA.
EBAY: Forecast 1-19-05 after the close. Lower volume bounce back toward the 50 day. We hear the holiday sales were very strong and there could be an upside surprise along with that split announcement. Precarious position to start new positions, but willing to enter positions before the close Wednesday with April $105c (XBA DA, 61 delta).
EASI: Forecast early February.
ESRX: Forecast 2-2-05
EXBD: Forecast 1-24-05
GOOG: Forecast 2-1-05.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05. Trying to move through 58 but needs some volume.
HAR: Forecast 1-26-05. Tapped 130 and faded back. Still solid.
HDI: New information: 1-20-05 before the open.
IR: Forecast 2-1-05. Still struggling to hold the 50 day EMA.
JAH: Forecast 1-26-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MCO: Tentatively looking at 2-2-05.
MGG: Forecast 1-10-05. No split but a nice move is resuming.
MKC: Forecast mid-February. Starting higher on volume.
NKE: Researching exact date.
OMC: Forecast 1-25-05 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05. Looks ready for the next move, bouncing off the 50 day on stronger volume Friday.
SSI: Forecast 2-2-05
TBL: Forecast 1-20-05
TTC: Continuing the move off the 18 day EMA on solid volume.
USPH: Researching exact date. Volume up as it holds the 50 day EMA and bounces some.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-05. Volume is up as it moves off the 50 day EMA.
WAT: Forecast 1-17-05. Nice test of the breakout.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05
XRAY: No announcement 1-12-05. Still working over the 50 day EMA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/18/2005
BIIB (Biogen Idec--$67.80; +1.22; optionable): Biotechnology. Forecast to announce a stock split 2-7-05 after the close
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in late 2000 at $70 and before that in 1999, again at $70. Back then it was IDPH.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/biib.html
After Hours: $67.53
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume jumped to average Tuesday as BIIB came back from some early selling and a test of the 18 day EMA (65.96) to post a nice gain. It is trying to continue its early December breakout move after consolidating the past 5 weeks in a more or less lateral move over the 18 day. Accumulation in this short lateral move is a solid 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing all buyers and no sellers as it consolidated. This is a nice consolidation after a very nice 6 month flat base June to November. Nice money flow rallying ahead of the price. Relative strength has held rock solid. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 3.958M Avg Volume: 3.768M
BUY POINT: $68.35 Volume=5.7M Target=$78 Stop=$66.32
POSITION: IHD DN - Apr. 70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/biib.html
Play Date: 01/18/2005
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$59.91; +0.91; optionable): Costly motorcycles. Forecast to announce a split on 1-20-05 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months: August 1997 ($53); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Tuesday as HDI moved off of the 200 day SMA (58.98), a good start to a recovery from this test that formed the handle to its 18 week base. Money flow remains solid as HDI posts positive 6 to 5 accumulation in the base, showing net buyers and setting up the breakout. Looking for it to continue toward the breakout and show us that move on strong volume to enter positions.
Volume: 2.507M Avg Volume: 1.389M
BUY POINT: $61.35 Volume=2.1M Target=$67.55 Stop=$60.22
POSITION: HDI EL - May $60c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CPS (Choicepoint--$45.9; +0.65; optionable): Identification and credential verification services. Forecast 1-26-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:3 split on 4-25-02 at $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cps.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid volume Tuesday as CPS started up off of the test of its 50 day EMA (44.47) as it looks for the breakout from its 7 month base. Solid accumulation and money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looks ready to make the breakout. A very nice pattern that has set up, patiently working through the handle as the market struggled this month.
Volume: 294K Avg Volume: 264.227K
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=400K Target=$52 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: CPS DI - Apr. $45c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cps.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$68.51; +2.11; optionable): Business management services. Forecast 1-24-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a price of $60.
After Hours: $68.55
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Great volume Tuesday as EXBD continued the move off of the 50 day EMA (65.82). It is ready to make the breakout from its 8 week lateral consolidation of its late October break higher that carried it almost to 70 at Thanksgiving. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Still a buy as it continues the move.
Volume: 389.015K Avg Volume: 247.772K
BUY POINT: New: $68.82 (orig. $68.05) Volume=373K Target=$74 Stop=$66.28
POSITION: EBU CM - Mar. $65c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exbd.html
Play Date: 12/18/2004
MKC (McCormick & Company--$38.86; +0.83; optionable): The spice company. Tentatively forecast in mid-February but working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-19-02 at $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MKC has worked laterally the pat 4 weeks after a solid move in Mid-December. It was impacted by that early 2005 selling, but it held the 50 day EMA (37.48) and rebounded on volume. This follows the breakout form 14 week base in early November and a 4 week lateral move to consolidate that gain. Looks ready for a really solid breakout here.
Volume: 394.5K Avg Volume: 334.409K
BUY POINT: New: $39.05 (orig. $38.75) Volume=400K Target=$46.48 Stop=$37.52
POSITION: MKC CG - Mar. $35c (98 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mkc.html
Play Date: 01/03/2005
NKE (Nike--$88.70; -0.25; optionable): Sports apparel, gold equipment, etc. Researching exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1996 at roughly $100. It has been a long time getting back.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA. Stalled out at the 18 day EMA (88.83) Tuesday, but still looks solid and ready to move after its test of the strong mid-December move on strong volume. Just want to see that volume break higher as the stock does the same.
Volume: 869K Avg Volume: 1.176M
BUY POINT: $89.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$88.89
POSITION: NKE DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nke.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$15.50; +0.15; no options): Outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics. Researching to pinpoint a date, but a good pattern we wanted to get on the report.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has moved up the past few sessions, up above average Tuesday as USPH tested the 50 day EMA (15.29) and then rallied back on volume to hold that level and post a gain. Nice 12.5 month base has set up well; a very nice base even though the average volume is a big less than we normally move in. Money flow is racing ahead of the stock and volume is excellent. Looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 105.62K Avg Volume: 35.136K
BUY POINT: $15.92 Volume=53K Target=$19 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usph.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/10/2005
NCR (NCR Corp.--$65.15; -0.42; optionable): ITS software. Splits 2:1 on 1-24-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped the last three sessions of the week as NCR tested and held the 50 day EMA. Like to see volume jump as it tests this level as it shows big buyers stepping up to support the stock. Money flow continues to run higher ahead of price, another good indication. Want to see continued strong volume as NCR moves further off the 50 day and through the 18 day EMA (66.70).
Volume: 1.226M Avg Volume: 924.272K
BUY POINT: $67.65 Volume=1M Target=$74.75 Stop=$66.97
POSITION: NCR DM - Apr. $65c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ncr.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/06/2005
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$51.1; +0.61; optionable): Personal products (shampoo, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Trying to make the breakaway after the test of the solid early January move. ACV tapped the 10 day EMA (50.19) on the Tuesday low and rebounded for a solid gain. Volume was not there, however; we really want to see that volume return to show us the money is back. Money flow remains solid as it came back to test the breakout from its 5.5 month base. Just waiting for the volume.
Volume: 197.6K Avg Volume: 308.5K
BUY POINT: New: $51.45 (orig. $50.78) Volume=325K Target=$56 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: ACV FJ - June $50c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 01/13/2005
DVA (Davita--$41.99; -0.01; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Has refused to come back and test the breakout any further, holding easily above the 10 day EMA (40.89) as the stock works laterally on lower, below average volume. That shows few sellers as it consolidates the early January break higher. Being patient here and letting it show us the next move on above average volume. That is our entry point.
Volume: 690.6K Avg Volume: 953.681K
BUY POINT: New: $42.28 9orig. $40.88. Volume=100K Target=$49 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: DVA DH - Apr. $40c (65 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
MIK (Michaels--$30.92; -0.08; optionable): Craft stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Knocking its head at the breakout point the past four sessions. Volume has not been there to push it through yet, but it is holding up well, refusing to give up near support at the 18 day EMA (30.24). Just being patient and waiting for volume to jump up as it makes the break through the buy point.
Volume: 514K Avg Volume: 815.909K
BUY POINT: $31.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$37 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: MIF FZ - June $32.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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