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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the delay in part 3. We experienced technical problems in generating the play data.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BEV; NOVA; VNWK
Best Plays:
1) AHG: Solid volume as it prepares to rebound from the breakout test.
2) KOOL: Excellent volume in a down session as it moves toward the breakout.
3) ZICA: Strong volume as it rebounds from the test.
4) MFE: Rolling over at the 18 and 50 day EMA.
5) CCRT: Ready to make the breakout.
6) DDDC: Nice test of the breakout, holding the 10 day EMA.
7) LMT: Ready to roll over.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/19/2005
AHG (Apria Healthcare Group--$32.40; +0.33; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AHG has come back to fully test the mid-December gap higher, filling the gap on lower volume. It has held support at 32, and volume has started to rebound the past week as it moves laterally, holding that support from where it gapped higher. It gapped out of a 10 month cup base sporting strong 10 to 6 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows net buyers in the base, setting up the breakout and run. After this test we are looking for a solid price and volume move back up to show us buyers are starting in on the stock once more. That is when we move in. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 1.029M Avg Volume: 506.909K
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=1M Target=$38 Stop=$32.18
POSITION: AHG FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ahg.html
Play Date: 01/19/2005
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$6.29; +0.38; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
After Hours: $6.22
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped Wednesday as KOOL moved off a test of the 50 day EMA (5.92) an important support level and one that acted as the bottom of the handle to its 12 month base. Excellent 15 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows plenty of buyers accumulating the stock over that time. Great volume and a good move Wednesday as KOOL moves higher to follow the money flow that is strong and moving higher. Relative strength is ready for the breakout as well, a good corroboration of the breakout if they both breakout together.
Volume: 721.4K Avg Volume: 247.636K
BUY POINT: $6.54 Volume=350K Target=$7.89 Stop=$6.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kool.html
Play Date: 01/19/2005
ZICA (Zi Corp.--$6.10; +0.39; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zica.html
After Hours: $5.97
STATUS: Test breakout. ZICA exploded higher the last two weeks of December, gapping higher on strong trade and rallying to 8. It ahs come back to test the move on mostly lower volume. It filled the gap Friday and started higher this week, rallying sharply Wednesday on strong above average volume. Money flow is strong and turning back up ahead of the stock. Ready to move in on a further volume move and capture the upside momentum. Strong in a weak market.
Volume: 1.257M Avg Volume: 313.818K
BUY POINT: $6.21 Volume=410K Target=$7.45 Stop=$5.83
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zica.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/19/2005
MFE (Network Associates--$25.45; -0.55; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfe.html
STATUS: Put. A big winner after an October breakout and run, MFE has been a whipping boy this year as what goes up has come down. After beaching at 24 last week and rebounding up to the 18 day EMA (26.36) it rolled over at that level Wednesday. Money flow is weak and leading lower. Under some ugly distribution. Looking for it to roll over here for a nice drop back toward the January low or lower to give us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 2.435M Avg Volume: 2.995M
BUY POINT: $25.35 Volume=3M Target=$23.85 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: MFE NE - Feb. $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mfe.html
Play Date: 01/19/2005
^SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$68.04; -8.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^soxx.html
STATUS: Put. SOX continues to struggle after a small head and shoulders breakdown to start the month. It has moved laterally along some support at 400, trading on both sides the past week. It tried to get to the 18 day EMA (409.81) Wednesday but rolled over. Will likely gap down Thursday, but on a test toward 400 that fails we will look to enter.
Volume: 915.226K Avg Volume: 1.387M
BUY POINT: $396 Volume=2.1M Target=$379 Stop=$40.02
POSITION: SXX NT - Feb. $400p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^soxx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
ARQL (Arqule--$6.31; 0; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arql.html
After Hours: $6.33
STATUS: Breakout test. ARQL pulled back Wednesday, but it held the 10 day EMA (6.26) on lower volume. ARQL surged out of a 9 month base to start the year and then spent last week testing the move. A very nicely formed pattern with a nice breakout and orderly test. Strong money flow continues higher even as the stock eased back to test the 18 day EMA (6.11). Still waiting for the turn back up on volume.
Volume: 137.391K Avg Volume: 122.409K
BUY POINT: $6.68 Volume=200K Target=$8.11 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arql.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CCRT (Compucredit Corp.--$27.70; +0.76; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrt.html
After Hours: $27.42
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice rebound in a down market Wednesday as CCRT continued its move off the 50 day EMA (25.15) on its way to a multiyear high. Broke out from a nice 12 month cup with handle in November and rallied to 28 before this test. Looks ready to make the move and clear that late December high.
Volume: 181.526K Avg Volume: 171.636K
BUY POINT: New: $28.15 (orig. $27.44) Volume=232K Target=$36.15 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: CUE DE - Apr. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccrt.html
Play Date: 01/10/2005
CMCSA (Comcast--$33.02; -0.54; optionable): Cable TV systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmcsa.html
After Hours: $33.10
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Holding up very well as it moves laterally the past few sessions over the 10 day EMA (33.06). It is going about its own business as it sets up for the next breakout attempt from its 12 month base. Just waiting for volume to jump as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 5.701M Avg Volume: 7.552M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=8.5M Target=$38.75 Stop=$32.31
POSITION: CCQ DZ - Apr. $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmcsa.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
DDDC (Deltathree.com--$3.85; +0.01; no options): VOIP telephony services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dddc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the very nice, low volume test of the recent breakout, holding over 3.75 on the session low and rebounding to close. To recap: DDDC is coming back to test the breakout from a 17 week cup with handle base. The breakout was in early December. It came back to test the 50 day EMA (3.22) after that move and has exploded off that level to start last week as volume surged. It rolled over toward the end of last week and has been testing the 10 day EMA (3.71) and rebounding to the close. Super money flow and a strong relative strength breakout shows leadership that we like in our plays. The most recent base was the tail end of a larger 13 month base sporting excellent 17 to 6 accumulation (17 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume). That set up the breakout move and DDDC is taking advantage of it.
Volume: 270.055K Avg Volume: 344.136K
BUY POINT: $4.21 Volume=600K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.92
POSITION: - Stock (no opiton chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dddc.html
Play Date: 01/05/2005
IMGN (Immunogen--$8.03; -0.04; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgn.html
After Hours: $8.03
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding tight on the 18 day EMA (8.01), moving laterally on below average volume and showing a doji at that level once again. Excellent handle to the solid 8 month base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation. Excellent money flow is leading higher, and IMGN looks ready to follow it. Very nice as it ignores the market.
Volume: 225.445K Avg Volume: 239.227K
BUY POINT: $8.55 Volume=383K Target=$10.68 Stop=$8.04
POSITION: GMU DU - Apr. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/imgn.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$27.02; -0.16; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock ignoring the market, holding above the 10 day EMA (26.63) on low, below average volume as it tests the early January break higher on strong December sales results. It has worked its way through a long two year base, capping off a nice 10 week run from September to early December with a 4 week pullback to the 50 day EMA (24.66) where it spent a couple of weeks to catch its breath. A strong stock will use the 50 day as a deeper test after a strong run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. Indeed, TOO vaulted higher a week back on those retail sales numbers. It eased back to tap the 10 day EMA (26.63) early last week. Good test of the move and it is ready to continue the run. Excellent money flow is leading higher. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the current short pattern indicates buyers are still moving into the stock. Want to see a solid volume jump as it moves higher once more.
Volume: 460.9K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1M Target=$32 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
LMT (Lockheed Martin--$55.89; -0.64; optionable): Aerospace and defense contracting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lmt.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. LMT tapped the 50 day EMA (56.72) Wednesday and rolled over. This move was expected after LMT rallied back off of the 200 day SMA (53.37) the past two weeks. The rebound took it to the 50 day where the left shoulder to the pattern topped out in early October. This is a 14 week distribution pattern with the head peaking out in early December at 61.62. The stock has been under distribution and money flow remains weak. Ready to move in as it turns back down on above average volume.
Volume: 1.465M Avg Volume: 2.392M
BUY POINT: $55.65 Volume=2.8M Target=$53.32 Stop=$56.35
POSITION: LMT NK - Feb. $55p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lmt.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$28.97; -0.81; optionable): Card shuffling machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
After Hours: $28.97
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Gapped higher Wednesday but rolled over and sold through the 50 day EMA (29.17). Volume was low, so that was not the selling action we wanted to see. It is still in trouble, unable to clear resistance at 30. A lower right shoulder indicates a weaker stock and a harder drop. Looking for volume to rebound as it tanks through the buy point. A $2 move gives us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 351.584K Avg Volume: 600.318K
BUY POINT: $29.04 Volume=650K Target=$27.36 Stop=$29.79
POSITION: SVF NF - Feb. $30p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/shfl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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