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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: APCS; VNWK; LMT
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/20/2005
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$63.46; +0.98; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Breakout. FSH defied the market, breaking out again after the first test of the move out of a 12 week double bottom with handle base. That was part of a longer 9 month consolidation. Accumulation in the base was a solid 12 to 6 (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up the breakout and run. It came back to test the 50 day EMA (59.84) in the early January selling, but volume was low and below average as it did; that means no real selling. Volume surged last week as FSH jumped off the 50 day. Thursday it was up again as FSH resumed the breakout. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the breakout move. Strong money flow. Hitting on all cylinders, and we are looking to start a position on a continued move.
Volume: 1.858M Avg Volume: 1.227M
BUY POINT: $63.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$71 Stop=$61.38
POSITION: FSH FM - June $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2005
OVNT (Overnite Corp.--$34.32; +0.08; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovnt.html
STATUS: Put. A long uptrend in 2004 that hit a new high in late December on very low volume. That means no buyers as the stock hit a high. Trouble. The stock rolled over and cut through the 50 day EMA on strong trade. It bounced off 32 and retested the 50 day (34.92) Wednesday and Thursday, starting to roll over on rising volume Thursday. Ready to enter as it continues lower on volume. Money flow is heading lower and the stock remains under distribution. A move to the target gives us a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 311.904K Avg Volume: 252.181K
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=315K Target=$32.05 Stop=$34.95
POSITION: QWQ OG - Mar. $35p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ovnt.html
Play Date: 01/20/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$28.65; -0.51; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Double top. Even the boring stocks get into trouble. FLO threw a couple of peaks in December. The first was on solid volume, but after a dip and rebound, the second matching peak was on very low trade over the holidays. It started to sell in the new year but volume was still modest. Then it gapped through the 50 day EMA (29.27) last week on heavy trade. It has rebounded on lower volume to test the 50 day, and Thursday it turned back down from there on rising trade. Looks ready to continue the selling down toward the 200 day SMA (26.34). A move to the target gives us a 57%ish gain.
Volume: 323.1K Avg Volume: 158.863K
BUY POINT: $28.54 Volume=180K Target=$27 Stop=$29.02
POSITION: FLO NF - Feb. $30p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flo.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 12/16 Test BO 70.46 +0.58 66.68 76 16M 15M 69.38
Current.
AAPL 12/09 Test 18 70.46 +0.58 65.52 76 16M 15M 69.38
Current.
ACTI 01/03 Cup hdl 8.5 -0.3 9.05 11.22 327K 323K 8.42
Buy Not Hit.
AHG 01/19 Test BO 32.53 +0.13 33.05 38 503K 1M 32.18
Buy Not Hit.
AMMD 12/18 DB hdl 39.12 -0.39 41.74 49.25 84K 450K 38.79
Current.
APCS 01/15 Flat 13.3 +0.42 13.14 15.94 3.2M 2.5M 12.28
Current.
ARQL 01/15 Test BO 6.21 -0.1 6.68 8.11 152K 200K 6.21
Buy Not Hit.
ARRY 12/21 Cup hdl 8.61 -0.3 9.57 11.55 188K 375K 8.97
Buy Not Issued.
BEV 01/19 Cup hdl 9.57 -0.03 9.58 11.57 1.4M 110K 9.21
Current.
CCRT 01/08 Test BO 26.54 -1.16 27.44 41.45 157K 232K 26.11
CENT 12/15 Cup hdl 40.25 +0.5 41.12 50.15 300K 160K 38.35
Current.
CHT 01/08 FlyPlat 20.55 +0.05 21.78 25.25 246K 384K 20.62
Current.
CMCSA 01/10 Cup hdl 32.74 -0.28 33.55 38.75 7.5M 8.5M 32.31
Buy Not Issued.
DBD 01/12 Cup hdl 56.27 -1.07 57.64 65 1.1M 500K 55.21
Current.
DCAI 01/13 Test BO 23.95 -0.47 25.55 30 129K 300K 23.76
Current.
DDDC 01/15 Test BO 3.71 -0.14 4.21 5.35 276K 600K 3.92
Buy Not Hit.
DUSA 01/13 Test BO 14.88 -0.14 15.77 18.64 126K 183K 14.94
Current.
EFJI 12/23 DB hdl 8.1 -0.26 9 10.85 134K 178K 8.47
Exited.
GENZ 11/22 Cup hdl 59.04 -0.74 57.45 63.75 2.3M 3.2M 59.72
Current.
GERN 01/18 Test BO 8.77 -0.16 8.94 10.75 1.4M 2.4M 8.55
Current.
HUM 01/10 FlyPlat 32.42 -0.52 30.85 37 1.9M 1.9M 31.25
Current.
HYSL 01/04 DB hdl 46.78 -0.09 47.03 55 579K 850K 45.82
Current.
IDSY 01/18 Test 50 17 -0.72 18.74 22.49 92K 159K 17.69
Buy Not Hit.
IMGN 01/05 Test BO 7.76 -0.27 8.55 10.68 248K 383K 8.04
Buy Not Hit.
KOOL 01/19 Cup hdl 6.05 -0.24 6.54 7.89 264K 350K 6.15
Buy Not Hit.
NKE 01/03 Test BO 86.8 -1.75 89.68 100 893K 1.2M 87.37
Current.
NOVA 01/08 Test BO 7.34 +0.05 6.38 7.88 127K 176K 6.74
NTES 12/27 Cup hdl 47.64 -2.84 53.15 63 2M 1.2M 50.78
Buy Not Issued. Stock has not performed so will drop.
NXTP 12/09 Test 50 20.19 -0.13 18.58 23.35 1M 2M 19.87
Current.
PNK 01/18 Test 50 17.47 -0.24 18.72 21.55 178K 325K 17.88
Buy Not Hit.
PRE 01/06 Test 50 62.82 +0.12 62.75 68 371K 325K 62.12
Current.
PRFT 01/12 Test 18 7.37 -0.36 7.61 9.32 376K 615K 7.45
Current.
RECN 01/10 Test BO 49.4 +0.06 51.75 60 464K 600K 50.37
Buy Not Issued.
STK 12/27 Test BO 31.14 -0.86 31.68 37 1.6M 900K 31.89
Exited.
STK 11/30 DB hdl 31.14 -0.86 29.92 35.54 1.6M 1.4M 31.89
Trailing Stop.
TOO 01/12 Test BO 26.65 -0.37 27.05 32 435K 1M 26.05
Buy Not Issued.
TUTS 01/11 Cup 4.26 0 4.77 5.95 64K 300K 4.44
Current.
VNWK 01/12 Cup hdl 4.28 +0.09 4.13 518 416K 200K 3.94
Current.
WYNN 12/11 Cup 64.9 -3.14 68.48 78.75 1.3M 1.5M 66.22
Current.
ZICA 01/19 Test BO 5.81 -0.29 6.21 7.45 443K 410K 5.83
Buy Not Hit. .
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOX 01/19 Put 64.9 -3.08 396 379 1.3M 2.1M 40.02
Buy Not Issued. Showed relative strength all day until faded in afternoon. Given that strength decided to wait and see how responds Friday before entering.
LMT 01/15 Put 55.06 -0.83 55.13 53.32 2.3M 2.8M 55.96
Entered today.
MFE 01/19 Put 26.3 +0.85 25.35 23.85 4.5M 3M 25.88
Buy Not Issued.
PXP 01/03 Put 26.48 -0.26 24.78 22.85 473K 700K 25.38
Current.
SHFL 01/15 H&S 28.52 -0.45 29.04 27.36 751K 650K 29.79
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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