|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the late delivery. The severe weather has hampered soem of our writers and others are under the weather with a virus that is going around.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: VNWK; SOX; OVNT
Best Plays:
1) VMSI: Excellent test back to the breakout point.
2) TERN: Strong volume as the stock rallies sharply off the 200 day SMA.
3) KDE: Diving lower after a failed test of the 18 day EMA.
4) ARQL: Excellent handle has formed.
5) CCRT: Ready to make the break through month long resistance.
6) DDDC: The pullback to test looks to be over.
7) FLO: Failing at the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/22/2005
ISON (Isonics--$5.01; -0.09; no options): Isotope supply for life sciences and healthcare applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ison.html
After Hours: $4.93
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ISON is volatile, but it continues to set up well in a 13 week ascending base using the 50 day EMA (4.61) as rising support. Volume surged Thursday as the stock tapped the 50 day on the low and posted a solid gain. It took a low volume breather Friday, holding the 18 day EMA on the close. Continued good money flow and strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Showing solid strength in the market selling. Looking for another strong break higher through the buy point to move in.
Volume: 1.194M Avg Volume: 10.846M
BUY POINT: $5.17 Volume=8.5M Target=$6.22 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ison.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
TERN (Terayon Communication--$2.96; +0.37; no options): Telecom processing systems (modems, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tern.html
After Hours: $2.96
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. TERN is coming off the bottom of a 16 month cup base. It broke through the 200 day SMA (2.26) in early December, re-tested this month, and then shot higher the past week. Friday volume shot higher and so did the stock price. Earlier in the month it announced it was selected as the VOIP cable deployment by Wharf T&T in Hong Kong. Surging money flow is leading the stock higher. Looks strong and ready to move in on a continued solid volume rally.
Volume: 3.685M Avg Volume: 707.363K
BUY POINT: $3.08 Volume=1.1M Target=$3.94 Stop=$2.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tern.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$65.27; -0.92; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice early November breakout from a solid 5 month reverse head and shoulders base of sorts, rallying a good 10 points 65 before coming back to take a breather and test the 50 day EMA (61.03). Excellent bounce off of that support on very strong volume. Last week when the market turned sour VMSI eased back to tap the 10 day EMA (64.78) on much lower volume. This is simply setting up for the next move higher from this strong market leader. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout shows its power. Looking for a higher volume bounce off here to enter.
Volume: 133.003K Avg Volume: 123.09K
BUY POINT: $65.89 Volume=172K Target=$74.95 Stop=$64.57
POSITION: UMI FM - June $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vmsi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/22/2005
KDE (4Kids Entertainment--$18.70; -0.78; optionable): Children oriented content for popular children's properties, personalities, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kde.html
STATUS: Put. KDS is working through a long base, still making lower and lower highs as it does, an indication that it has yet to find the bottom in this selling. It tried a break above the 200 day SMA (20.67) to tend December, but it failed hard in January. It rebounded the past two weeks but the low volume showed us there were very few really buying in with gusto. Without that conviction KDE rolled over Friday on rising volume, ready to continue lower. Won't take much to deliver us a nice gain; a move to the target gives us a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 159.1K Avg Volume: 180.681K
BUY POINT: $18.58 Volume=185K Target=$17 Stop=$18.92
POSITION: KDE ND - Feb. $20p (-70 delta) or KDE OD - Mar. $20p
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kde.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
SEBL (Siebel--$8.93; -0.20; optionable): Enterprise software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
After Hours: $8.89
STATUS: Put. SEBL came off its lows in October, gapping higher on good news regarding earnings after a long period of decline. It rallied through the 200 day SMA (9.41) and held that ground for 7 weeks. It gave up the 200 day SMA the first week of January on extremely strong trade. It made a weak volume test up to last Wednesday and then started to falter. Friday it broke through the first low at 9 after breaking back through the 200 day. Volume was up. Money flow is diving ahead of price and the stock remains under distribution. Looks ready to fill the gap up in early October. A move to the target gives us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 9.802M Avg Volume: 8.401M
BUY POINT: $8.88 Volume=10M Target=$7.88 Stop=$9.05
POSITION: SGQ QB - May $10c (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sebl.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/15/2005
ARQL (Arqule--$6.23; +0.02; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arql.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very, very nice test of the 18 day EMA (6.13), showing a nice hammer doji above that level Friday. ARQL surged out of a 9 month base to start the year and then spent the past two weeks testing the move. Very nice and orderly pattern all around, including this test. Looks ready to resume the move and follow the money flow higher.
Volume: 113.624K Avg Volume: 122.409K
BUY POINT: $6.68 Volume=200K Target=$8.11 Stop=$6.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arql.html
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CCRT (Compucredit Corp.--$27.55; +1.01; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.70) the past week as CCRT bangs its head at 28 as it readies to break to a new multiyear high. CCRT broke out from a nice 12 month cup with handle in November and rallied to 28 before this test. Excellent money flow is leading higher, and look at relative strength, breaking out Friday ahead of the stock. That is a very positive sign for the breakout to follow it.
Volume: 178.153K Avg Volume: 171.636K
BUY POINT: New: $28.15 (orig. $27.44) Volume=232K Target=$36.15 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: CUE DE - Apr. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccrt.html
Play Date: 01/10/2005
CMCSA (Comcast--$32.95; +0.21; optionable): Cable TV systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmcsa.html
After Hours: $32.78
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice doji at the 18 day EMA (32.73) as CMCSA puts the finishing touches on the handle to the stock's 13 month base. Volume was up Friday as it tried to make the break higher. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 9.474M Avg Volume: 7.552M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=8.5M Target=$38.75 Stop=$32.31
POSITION: CCQ DZ - Apr. $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmcsa.html
Play Date: 01/15/2005
DDDC (Deltathree.com--$3.58; -0.13; no options): VOIP telephony services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dddc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DDDC continues the nice, orderly, and low volume test of the strong move higher the second week of January. Very nice hammer doji at the 18 day EMA (3.58), holding the breakout from a larger 13 month cup with handle base. Excellent money flow even as the stock makes this pullback. Excellent 17 to 6 accumulation (17 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) in that large base set up the breakout and will help propel it back up from this test. Low volume to end the week; now looking for a strong volume bounce to enter positions and DDDC bounces and moves through the buy point.
Volume: 338.141K Avg Volume: 344.136K
BUY POINT: New: $3.88 (orig. $4.21) Volume=600K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.92
POSITION: - Stock (no opiton chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dddc.html
Play Date: 01/10/2005
RECN (RSCS Connection--$49.1; -0.3; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
After Hours: $49.18
STATUS: Breakout test. RECN has come back to fully test and fill the gap from the late December breakout from a 7 month cup with handle base. This is testing the break to a new high from this market leader. Nice low volume test of the move. Now just waiting for the stock to rebound through the buy point on a return to strong, above average volume.
Volume: 376.6K Avg Volume: 445.409K
BUY POINT: New: $50.32 (orig. $51.75) Volume=600K Target=$60 Stop=$50.37
POSITION: JJJ EJ - May $50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/recn.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$26.52; -0.13; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TOO continues to hold its early January bolt higher on some excellent December sales results, moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.24) on lower and lower below average volume. It has worked its way through a long two year base, capping off a nice 10 week run from September to early December with a 4 week pullback to the 50 day EMA (24.81) where it spent a couple of weeks to catch its breath. A strong stock will use the 50 day as a deeper test after a strong run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. A good test of the move and it is ready to continue the run. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the current short pattern indicates buyers are still moving into the stock. Still waiting for that volume to jump as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 433.2K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1M Target=$32 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$29.12; +0.47; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
0http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Double top. Continues to struggle below the 50 day EMA (29.27) after giving up that support 8 sessions back following a December double top. Low volume rally back up to test the 50 day looks ready to fail with some high volume selling Thursday and a weak rebound attempt Friday. A move to the target gives us a 57%ish gain.
Volume: 139.1K Avg Volume: 158.863K
BUY POINT: $28.54 Volume=180K Target=$27 Stop=$29.02
POSITION: FLO NF - Feb. $30p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flo.html
Play Date: 01/19/2005
MFE (Network Associates--$25.94; -0.36; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfe.html
STATUS: Put. Thursday MFE showed some stronger upside volume as it tested the 50 day EMA (26.64) once more. Friday that volume backed off and MFE softened once more. The 18 day EMA (26.31) is right below the 50 day, and this is MFE's second try at that level since it peaked in mid-December. With the weak money flow and hard selling to this point, we are looking for MFE to fail here and turn down for a nice gain.
Volume: 3.148M Avg Volume: 2.995M
BUY POINT: $25.72 Volume=3M Target=$23.85 Stop=$26.35
POSITION: MFE NE - Feb. $25p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mfe.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
