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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: SOX; KDE; MFE; OVNT; SEBL; SHFL
Best Plays:
1) ILMN: Solid volume as it breaks higher in a selling market.
2) JJZ: Volume is strong as JJZ heads toward the breakout.
3) CNF: Ready for more downside after breaking lower through the 50 day EMA.
4) TERN: Tried the breakout but the late market weakness pulled it back.
5) VMSI: Looks really good as it is ready to rebound from the test.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/24/2005
CHTT (Chattem--$35.13; +1.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
STATUS: Cup. After a strong run from October 2003 through November 2004 CHTT needed a break for the holidays. It started the current 7 week base in December sliding back on lower volume. It beat the Christmas rush and started selling ahead of the market. Thus by the time the sharp early selling came around CHTT has already pretty much hit the bottom of the base. Since then it has rallied back above the 50 day EMA on solid volume, bouncing sharply higher Monday on strong volume. Strong money flow and relative strength shooting higher ready to breakout again. Three to two accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying in the base. Moving up when the rest of the market was going down; that pretty much says it.
Volume: 367.869K Avg Volume: 166.09K
BUY POINT: $35.38 Volume=250K Target=$39.85 Stop=$33.72
POSITION: HQT FG - June $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chtt.html
Play Date: 01/24/2005
ILMN (Illumina--$9.52; +0.34; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was up Monday as ILMN moved toward the breakout from its 12 month accumulation base. Strong 14 to 8 accumulation shows a lot of buying and sets up the breakout and run. Relative strength has already broken out ahead of the stock, a very good indication that the stock will follow. A relatively new issue (July 2000), this is the first really solid base off of its low in early 2003. Looks very nice.
Volume: 493.547K Avg Volume: 196.409K
BUY POINT: $9.72 Volume=295K Target=$11.68 Stop=$9.04
POSITION: IQA FB - June $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ilmn.html
Play Date: 01/24/2005
JJZ (Jacuzzi Brands--$9.76; +0.3; no options): Hot tubs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jjz.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The market was selling but JJZ was moving up toward the breakout point on solid volume. It actually moved through the buy point on the Monday high before giving some back as the market sold into the close. Very nice pattern using the 200 day SMA (8.69) roughly as support as it makes a series of higher lows. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. Ready for a breakout to a multiyear high.
Volume: 488.7K Avg Volume: 258.363K
BUY POINT: $9.88 Volume=400K Target=$11.85 Stop=$9.24
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jjz.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/24/2005
CNF (CNF Transportation--$45.92; -0.10; optionable): CNF Transportation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnf.html
After Hours: $46
STATUS: Put. The transportation sector is having a problem. Strong run in last half of 2003 through 2004. It peaked at the end of the year. It fell back to the 50 day EMA (47.38), moved laterally, and looked to be forming up for a move higher. Even tried a move off the 50 day last week. Not many were buying it, literally. It failed. It crashed through the 50 day Friday on a big volume surge. It gapped higher Monday but reversed to close flat, again on strong volume. That may have been all of the test of the break below the 50 day it gives. Looking for it to resume the fall to open positions.
Volume: 812.2K Avg Volume: 571.818K
BUY POINT: $45.75 Volume=600K Target=$43.72 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: CNF DI - Mar. $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnf.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CCRT (Compucredit Corp.--$27.39; -0.16; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday to the breakout point, but volume was below average and just not there. Still very solid as it moves laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.77). Moved through that resistance at 28, but that volume held it back. CCRT broke out from a nice 12 month cup with handle in November and rallied to 28 before this test. Excellent money flow is leading higher, and look at relative strength, breaking out ahead of the stock. Turned back Monday, but still looks solid.
Volume: 153.644K Avg Volume: 171.636K
BUY POINT: New: $28.15 (orig. $27.44) Volume=232K Target=$36.15 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: CUE DE - Apr. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccrt.html
Play Date: 01/10/2005
CMCSA (Comcast--$33; +0.05; optionable): Cable TV systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmcsa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice tight hammer doji at the 18 day EMA (32.76) as CMCSA continues to form its 4 week handle to its 13 month base. Just being patient and waiting for CMCSA to deliver the breakout. Like the fact that it has held up very well in the market selling, going about its business of finishing its pattern.
Volume: 7.871M Avg Volume: 7.552M
BUY POINT: $33.55 Volume=8.5M Target=$38.75 Stop=$32.31
POSITION: CCQ DZ - Apr. $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmcsa.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
ISON (Isonics--$4.75; -0.26; no options): Isotope supply for life sciences and healthcare applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ison.html
After Hours: $4.77
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the higher volume jump Thursday off the 50 day EMA (4.61), ISON has eased back to the 50 day on lower volume. Still in a nice 13 week ascending base that has used the 50 day as rising support. Still a very nice pattern with good money flow and strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Still showing solid strength in the market selling. Still waiting for it to deliver a strong break higher on some above average volume.
Volume: 1.33M Avg Volume: 10.846M
BUY POINT: $5.17 Volume=8.5M Target=$6.22 Stop=$4.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ison.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
TERN (Terayon Communication--$3; +0.04; no options): Telecom processing systems (modems, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tern.html
After Hours: $3.01
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Was up again Monday on solid volume, but backed off into the close just below the buy point. Still looks very good as it tries to continue that move off the 200 day SMA (2.26). TERN is coming off the bottom of a 16 month cup base. It broke through the 200 day SMA in early December, re-tested this month, and then shot higher last week. Earlier in the month it announced it was selected as the VOIP cable deployment by Wharf T&T in Hong Kong. Surging money flow is leading the stock higher.
Volume: 2.269M Avg Volume: 707.363K
BUY POINT: $3.08 Volume=1.1M Target=$3.94 Stop=$2.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tern.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$26.20; -0.32; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume continues to fade lower and lower below average as TOO eases back, holding very well as it tests the big early January move on its strong sales results. It has faded back to hold the 18 day EMA (26.24) on the Monday close. This near support is where many continuing breakout runs start. TOO has worked its way through a long two year base, capping off a nice 10 week run from September to early December with a 4 week pullback to the 50 day EMA (24.86) where it spent a couple of weeks to catch its breath. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the current short pattern indicates buyers are still moving into the stock. Being patient and waiting for volume to move back in as it rebounds off the 18 day.
Volume: 352.6K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1M Target=$32 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$65.44; +0.17; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. The nice action continues as VMSI tests the stronger early November breakout from a solid 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied a good 10 points to 65 before coming back to take a breather and test the 50 day EMA (61.21). Excellent bounce off of that support on very strong volume. Last week when the market turned sour VMSI eased back in a nice, orderly test. It is setting up for its next break higher. Love the way it just goes about its business regardless of what the market does; sign of a true leader. VMIS posted a gain off the 18 day Monday on rising, above average volume as the market sold. See what we mean? Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout shows its power. Being patient and letting it show us the move.
Volume: 163.247K Avg Volume: 123.09K
BUY POINT: $65.89 Volume=172K Target=$74.95 Stop=$64.57
POSITION: UMI FM - June $65c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vmsi.html
New buy point on current play:
Play Date: 12/09/2004
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$20.07; +0.08; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
After Hours: $20.05
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. The market sold but NXTP just held its ground above the 18 day EMA (19.90) on low, below average volume. NXTP rallied as the market sold in early January. It has tested its break higher this past week, again as the market sold, on low volume. A leader ignoring the rest of the market. Looking for volume to jump back up to average or better as it moves off this test. That will give us another entry point on this solid stock.
Volume: 1.381M Avg Volume: 2.413M
BUY POINT: New positions: $20.32 (orig. positions: $18.58) Volume=2M Target=$23.35 Stop=$19.87
POSITION: KTU CD - Feb. $200c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxtp.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/20/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$29.15; +0.03; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
0http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Double top. FLO continues to struggle below the 50 day EMA (29.26), not giving us the continued drop as a follow up to the crash through the 50 day 2 weeks back. That breakdown followed a December double top on no volume; very weak when that second top has no volume as it shows no one really interested in it. Need to see it break lower on strong volume to enter given its resilience as the market sold. A move to the target gives us a 57%ish gain.
Volume: 227.1K Avg Volume: 158.863K
BUY POINT: $28.54 Volume=180K Target=$27 Stop=$29.02
POSITION: FLO NF - Feb. $30p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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