|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CHT; DDDC; HOLX; NOVA; RECN
Best Plays:
1) FMC: Weak test of the 200 day SMA breakdown.
2) KMRT: Ready to turn back over after this test of the 10 day EMA.
3) PT: Solid volume as it is ready to start the next leg of the breakout.
4) CCRT: Ready to break higher but needs some volume.
5) FFIV: Ready for the next leg.
6) TOO: Looks good but needs volume.
7) CNF: Turning over at the 200 day SMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/26/2005
PT (Portugal Telecom--$12.34; +0.27; no options): Foreign telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PT broke out from a nicely formed 8.5 month cup with handle base in early November, and rallied up the 18 day EMA as a good breakout stock will do. It needed a rest and came back in the January selling to test and hold the 50 day EMA (11.93). Volume started to jump last week as it came off that important support level. We note it did not breach its 50 day in the selling, a sign of strength a lot of stocks have not shown. Wednesday volume was up again as it jumped higher, ready for a new multiyear high. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation in the base (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume) has set up the breakout and run. Ready to move in on a further volume move. Relative strength has broken out as well, a good indication that the breakout is a good one.
Volume: 168.2K Avg Volume: 107.227K
BUY POINT: $12.48 Volume=161K Target=$14.98 Stop=$11.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pt.html
Play Date: 01/26/2005
WGAT (Worldgate Communications--$3.89; +0.53; no options): Cable TV systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgat.html
After Hours: $3.85
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. We are looking to catch some momentum on this stock as it comes back from a test of a massive break higher in December where the stock rallied almost 4 points. It has dropped back to test most of the move, holding the 50 day EMA (3.48). Low volume as it tested the past two weeks, a sign that the selling has abated. Wednesday volume was up as WGAT rebounded off that key support. Money flow is still moving higher ahead of price and we are looking for stronger volume as the stock continues higher to enter positions.
Volume: 1.074M Avg Volume: 1.128M
BUY POINT: $3.97 Volume=1.5M Target=$4.98 Stop=$3.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wgat.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/26/2005
FMC (FMC Corp.--$44.42; +0.86; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fmc.html
STATUS: Double top. This is a double top or head and shoulders; you can call it either but the result is the same. FMC crashed lower to start the year, landing on the 200 day SMA (44.54). It tried to bounce but crashed through that level Monday as volume jumped well above average. It has come back to test that move on much lower, below average volume, tapping the 200 day Wednesday and stalling out. Lots of resistance at this level that it broke on the 200 day SMA breach. Looking for it to turn back down here on a bit higher trade to enter the downside play. Looking at a 45%ish gain down to the target.
Volume: 149K Avg Volume: 217.227K
BUY POINT: $44.21 Volume=225K Target=$42.05 Stop=$44.77
POSITION: FMC OI - Mar. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fmc.html
Play Date: 01/26/2005
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$90.33; +2.06; optionable): Discount variety stores and real estate
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $90.39
STATUS: Put. Broke some support at the 90 level Monday as KMRT sold on stronger, above average volume. It has rebounded the past two sessions on lower volume to test that old support level and the 10 day EMA (91.49). Looking for it to turn down here and drop toward the last high in early September. That would give us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.28M Avg Volume: 2.421M
BUY POINT: $89.97 Volume=2.5M Target=$84.45 Stop=$91.62
POSITION: KTQ OR - Mar. $90p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 01/26/2005
^OEX (OEX Options--$561.78; +1.91; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^oex.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. OEX rallied up to the 50 day EMA (563.09) on the Wednesday high and then faded back on rising volume. SP500 has been moving higher on rising volume, but we are ready for a fade at this level to fulfill the downside of the pattern.
BUY POINT: $561.32 Volume=0 Target=$551.05 Stop=$563.12
POSITION: OEB OM - Mar. $565p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^oex.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/08/2005
CCRT (Compucredit Corp.--$28.10; +1.05; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccrt.html
After Hours: $28.12
STATUS: Breakout test. Bumping its head at 28.40, trying to make the breakout but not getting the volume it needs to make the next move to continue the breakout. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout have set the stage. Just needs more volume. CCRT broke out from a nice 12 month cup with handle in November and rallied to 28 before this test.
Volume: 89.58K Avg Volume: 171.636K
BUY POINT: New: $28.45 (orig. $27.44) Volume=232K Target=$36.15 Stop=$26.11
POSITION: CUE DE - Apr. $25c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ccrt.html
Play Date: 01/25/2005
CHS (Chicos Fas--$50.35; +0.25; optionable): Apparel Stores. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
After Hours: $50.46
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Holding at the 18 day EMA (49.41) again on Wednesday, showing a nice doji over that level on low, below average volume. Nice gap higher in early January on strong December sales and a stock split announcement. Rallied a solid ten points up to 53 and is now testing this move, coming back to the 18 day EMA Strong money flow and an excellent relative strength breakout on the move. Looking for volume to kick back up as the stock rebounds.
Volume: 756.7K Avg Volume: 1.199M
BUY POINT: $50.48 Volume=12M Target=$55.35 Stop=$49.27
POSITION: CHS CJ - Mar. $50c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chs.html
Play Date: 01/25/2005
FFIV (F5 Networks--$48.48; +0.79; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $48.37
STATUS: Breakout test. Holding over the 10 day EMA (47.31) as it tests back, trying to make a higher low at the 10 day to launch the next run higher. Shot up last Thursday on a strong earnings report and has tested that move this week on lower trade. Broke out in late October from a 10 month cup with handle base, rallied to 50, and then tested the 50 day EMA (44.57). Looking for a move up on continued solid volume.
Volume: 1.154M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: New: $48.78 (orig. $48.32) Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: FLK DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 01/20/2005
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$61.99; -0.33; optionable): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
STATUS: Breakout test. FSH is making the second test of the breakout from its 8.5 month flat base, easing back to the 18 day EMA (61.87) after a deeper test to the 50 day EMA (60.27) in early January. Good recovery, and a higher low here puts it in good shape for a continued breakout run. Excellent money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready for another breakout.
Volume: 965.4K Avg Volume: 1.227M
BUY POINT: $63.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$71 Stop=$61.38
POSITION: FSH FM - June $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$26.84; +0.8; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After the low volume, orderly pullback to support at 26 following the early January break higher on solid December retail results, TOO kicked higher Wednesday. The price move was good but the volume barely budged, still holding well below average. Looks ready to make the move, but have to see better volume from this market leader as it continues through the buy point. To recap: TOO has worked its way through a long two year base, capping off a nice 10 week run from September to early December with a 4 week pullback to the 50 day EMA (24.98) where it spent a couple of weeks to catch its breath. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the current short pattern indicates buyers are still moving into the stock.
Volume: 395.1K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1M Target=$32 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/24/2005
CNF (CNF Transportation--$46.83; -0.62; optionable): CNF Transportation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnf.html
STATUS: Put. CNF continues to struggle below the 50 day EMA (47.36), rallying through that level Tuesday but then giving it back at the close. Wednesday it continued turning lower though volume backed off (still above average). CNF peaked at the end of the year. It fell back to the 50 day EMA, moved laterally, and looked to be forming up for a move higher. Even tried a move off the 50 day last week. It failed. It crashed through the 50 day Friday on a big volume surge. It has tested the move, and now we want to see it fall furtehr on some rising volume.
Volume: 645.6K Avg Volume: 571.818K
BUY POINT: $45.75 Volume=600K Target=$43.72 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: CNF DI - Mar. $45p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnf.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
