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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ACO; MAPS; SYD
Tuesday night play results:
FFIV: Looks ready to continue the breakout.
SYD: Blasting higher on super volume.
TIWI: Tried to extend the move but ended up giving most of it back.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/26/2005
MSTR (Microstrategy--$61.90; +2.46; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $61.60
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Wednesday as MSTR bounced off the 50 day EMA (58.82). That acted as support in the handle of its 12 month base. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the base (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 8 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers during the consolidation, setting up the breakout. Strong money flow, and relative strength held up well as the stock tested back. Looking for more volume as it continues off the 50 day.
Volume: 474.819K Avg Volume: 611.59K
BUY POINT: $62.21 Volume=650K Target=$70 Stop=$58.68
POSITION: EOU DL - Apr. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mstr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/26/2005
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$19.93; +0.62; optionable): Regional airlines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
After Hours: $19.98
STATUS: Put. Higher energy prices are never good for airlines, and JBLU is in a continuing downtrend. It sold hard last week and ahs made a rebound the past two sessions to test that move. It has rebounded to the 10 day EMA (20.11), but volume was much lower Wednesday as it made that move. It broke some serious support at 20 on this breakdown, and thus we are watching for it to turn back down at this level.
Volume: 3.033M Avg Volume: 2.116M
BUY POINT: $19.78 Volume=3.1M Target=$18.12 Stop=$20.18
POSITION: JGQ OD - Mar. $20p (-48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jblu.html
Play Date: 01/26/2005
^DJX (1/100 DJ-30--$104.99; +0.37; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^djx.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. The blue chips rallied up to the 50 day EMA (105.30 on DJX) Wednesday but could not hold all of the move. Looks ready to roll back over as the overall DJ30 moved higher on lower volume. Looks ready to turn back down.
BUY POINT: $104.87 Volume=1.6M Target=$102.79 Stop=$105.05
POSITION: DJV OA - Mar. $105p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^djx.html
Continuing play ready to move:
Play Date: 01/22/2005
PFSW (PFSweb--$3.40; +0.25; no options): Outsourcing services (website development, order management, call centers, product assembly, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfsw.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PFSW tested the 50 day EMA (2.82) to start the month, forming the handle to its 15 month base. Low volume test showed few sellers. It broke higher this month as the market sold. It peaked at 3.75 and has come back to test the 18 day EMA (3.09), again on low volume. Trade jumped well above average Wednesday as PFSW moved off that test. If it continues it has made a higher low and we will be ready to move in on continued solid trade. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is breaking out, a very good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 601.781K Avg Volume: 344.863K
BUY POINT: $3.55 Volume=350K Target=$4.62 Stop=$3.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pfsw.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Still moving up off the test of the 50 day EMA. Just needs some more volume, but cannot complain about the move.
EASI: Good bump off the 50 day EMA but no volume yet.
GTRC: Breaking higher off the 18 day EMA test. Could use more volume.
MSFT: Lower volume test of the 18 day EMA looks ready to fail.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
BER: BER broke out in early November from a double bottom base. As is characteristic with this stock, it moved higher on no volume. It rallied 5 points on no volume. Volume did not jump until it peaked. It has made roughly 4 tests of the 18 day EMA on this move higher, and that often indicates the stock needs to take a deeper test toward the 50 day EMA (46).
Downside:
ICST: In a continuing downtrend below the 10 day EMA after a double top in November and December.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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