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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: MEE; MSTR; ABFS; JBLU
Thursday night play results:
ENMD: Went nowhere on no volume. Still set up as it moves into next week.
MEE: Nice volume breakout from its 9 week base.
EWBC: Continued to move lower on lower but still above average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/29/2005
AMX (America Movil--$52.53; +1.44; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AMX broke out from a 7 month double bottom with handle base in late November and rallied up the 18 day EMA (50.58) just as a good breakout stock will do. It peaked on the run at 54 just as the year turned and sold off with the market. It managed to hold the 50 day EMA (48.75) on the selling, a key institutional support level. It has moved laterally over that level, making a higher low late last week over the 18 day EMA (50.58). Friday that paid off with a solid price and volume move. AMX looks quite ready to continue the breakout move. Super money flow is turning back up and relative strength already breaking out. Looks ready to begin the next leg higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.125M Avg Volume: 1.391M
BUY POINT: $52.88 Volume=2M Target=$60 Stop=$50.45
POSITION: AMX EJ - May $50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amx.html
Play Date: 01/29/2005
GPN (Global Payments--$57.5; -0.64; optionable): Global payment management services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GPN blasted higher in late December on an excellent earnings report. That followed September breakout from a 5 month cup base and run higher up the 50 day EMA (56.14). It has come back to hold the 50 day, a key support level. Volume jumped Thursday as GPN gapped higher off that level. It took a lower volume rest Friday, tapping at the 18 day EMA (57.08) on the low before rebounding. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well as GPN readies for a continuation of the breakout move and a new all-time high.
Volume: 189.9K Avg Volume: 288.954K
BUY POINT: $58.42 Volume=433K Target=$65.95 Stop=$56.95
POSITION: GPN EK - May $55c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gpn.html
Play Date: 01/29/2005
SGMS (Scientific Games--$25.25; +0.23; optionable): Insta-ticket lottery and pari-mutual wagering products and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SGMS broke out in early November from a 7 month double bottom with handle base, making a series of bounces off the 18 day EMA (24.58) after that move. After that strong move it was primed for some selling and got caught in the first of the year dump lower. It held the 50 day EMA (23.61) and rebounded on strong trade. It has spent the past two weeks testing that move, sliding back to the 18 day once more. It has not sold off, but instead is just getting ready for the next move as the market wallows. After a strong breakout and run up the 18 day EMA a stock comes back to its 50 day EMA where it regroups and starts a new series of bounces up the 18 day. Looking for volume to rebound as the price does and that will be our entry point on this market leader.
Volume: 507.224K Avg Volume: 880.909K
BUY POINT: $25.57 Volume=1M Target=$30.68 Stop=$24.47
POSITION: TUJ DE - Apr. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sgms.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/29/2005
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$53.27; -0.58; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
After Hours: $53.25
STATUS: Put. Peaked in late December on very low volume, the second high in a 12 week double top. It sold early and kept on selling, gapping below the 200 day SMA (54.14) 7 sessions back. It has made a lower volume rebound last week to test the 200 day, tapping that level Thursday and then starting to roll back over Friday. Looking to move in as the stock continues lower. A move to the target gives us a 47%ish gain.
Volume: 1.559M Avg Volume: 1.114M
BUY POINT: $53.15 Volume=1.6M Target=$51.05 Stop=$54.16
POSITION: ACS OK - Mar. $55p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acs.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
JNPR: Has returned to the 200 day SMA (24.27) after trying to bounce back up off that level earlier in the week. No volume on that move, and JNPR is in danger of a break below this key support level.
MSFT: Gapped over the 50 day EMA (26.40) on the earnings news but gave back most of the move before the close. Not a great response to its earnings.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
PRZ: Hospital company that is surging on very strong trade to end the week, breaking out from a year long base.
VDSI: Security software company that is racing up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) once more after a quick test of the 50 day EMA (5.91) to start the month. The stock broke out in October and has almost quadrupled. Getting a bit extended, but the test of the 50 day EMA reset the move higher; strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 runs up after a breakout and then test the 50 day EMA. After that a strong stock will continue the move higher along those short term MA.
Downside:
IIVI: Turning over at the 18 day EMA after a bounce off the 18 day EMA is failing.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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