|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: AAPL; CHS; HOLX; JJZ; MER; USNA; LUK
Best Plays:
1) TTEC: Volume was up as it comes off the breakout test.
2) BDX: Excellent test from this market leader.
3) MVSN: Ready to turn lower from the 200 day SMA.
4) AHG: Nice.
5) TOO: Volume is in the right place.
6) KMRT: Looks ready to fail at the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/31/2005
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$56.65; +0.25; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BDX broke out from a 6.5 month reverse head and shoulders base in early November and rallied to 58 on that move. It sold back with the market, but held support at 54. Wednesday it gapped higher on very strong volume, moving over the 50 day SMA (55.64) on tremendous volume. It has moved laterally the past week. Volume surged as it started higher Thursday as BDX tapped the 50 day SMA and started back up. Strong 9 to 4 accumulation in the base shows solid net buying as it consolidated. Looking for volume to remain solid as BDX continues its rebound. Solid leader Ready for another all-time high.
Volume: 1.513M Avg Volume: 913.409K
BUY POINT: $57.02 Volume=1.1M Target=$63 Stop=$55.44
POSITION: BDX FK - June $55c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 01/31/2005
TTEC (Teletech Holdings--$10.62; +0.20; optionable): Customer management and consulting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttec.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Last week TTEC surged out of a 10 week double bottom base that formed at the tail end of a larger 13 month cup with handle. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the recent base shows net buying and set up the breakout move. It has come back on lower trade to test the move and then volume jumped back up Monday as TTEC bounced off the 10 day EMA (10.31). Looks ready to resume the breakout move.
Volume: 795.789K Avg Volume: 220.454K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=600K Target=$13 Stop=$10.29
POSITION: QTC GB - July $10c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttec.html
Play Date: 01/31/2005
WMS (Williams Industries--$31.34; +1.30; optionable): Gaming machines and video lottery terminals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
STATUS: Test breakout. WMS surged in a breakout move in December, rallying out of an 8.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation in the base shows net buying during the consolidation. During the January selling WMS has sold as well, but it checked up at 30, a price support level where the stock broke out. Good price/volume action in the pullback (up on up sessions, down on down sessions) shows there is still accumulation ongoing as it makes the pullback. Indeed, the up volume sessions were on quite strong volume, and that shows there is still a lot of buyers in the stock. Monday volume jumped again as WMS tested 30 on the low and then rebounded for a positive close. Money flow continues higher ahead of the price even as the stock tested. Looks ready to resume the move and we are ready to move in as it continues higher on some solid trade in a good market.
Volume: 1.075M Avg Volume: 442.136K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=663K Target=$36 Stop=$30.57
POSITION: WMS GF - July $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wms.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/31/2005
MVSN (Macrovision--$23.33; +0.19; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
After Hours: $24.10
STATUS: Put. MVSN double topped in late October and early December, the second top on that low volume that indicates no buyers on the try to break that resistance. When that happens the results are usually bad. MVSN did not break down in December, but it was in trouble when the rest of the market was rallying. It really broke lower when the market selling started in earnest this year. It broke through the 200 day SMA (23.68) and then last week made a very low volume rebound to test that level. In the market rally Monday it reached up and tapped the 200 day then rolled over. Low volume on the move; want to see that rally higher as MVSN continues lower from this test. Looking for a 40%ish move as the stock hits the target.
Volume: 267.727K Avg Volume: 637.318K
BUY POINT: $23.22 Volume=650K Target=$21.65 Stop=$23.79
POSITION: MVU OE - Mar. $25p (--65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/19/2005
AHG (Apria Healthcare Group--$32.80; +0.87; optionable): Home Health Care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume moved higher Monday but it was not what we wanted even as AHG bounced off the 50 day EMA (31.68). It looks great, and with some more volume it is ready to buy. To recap: AHG gapped out of a 9.5 month cup base in mid-December and rallied to 34. It has since tested that move the past 5 weeks, filling the gap and holding important support at the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 417.1K Avg Volume: 506.909K
BUY POINT: New: $32.92 (orig. $32.65) Volume=1M Target=$38 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: AHG FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ahg.html
Play Date: 01/27/2005
CVNS (Covansys--$14.30; +0.18; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
After Hours: $14.28
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped above average Monday as MVSN posted a modest gain. It could not make the breakaway move, but it still looks ready with that strong money flow moving higher ahead of price. To recap: CVNS is testing the late December break higher, coming back to tap the 50 day EMA (13.80) on the Friday low and then rebounding to close basically flat. Excellent breakout from an 8 month base. Great money flow and relative strength. Held up during the market sell off and it looks ready. Just has to make the move.
Volume: 117.027K Avg Volume: 97.636K
BUY POINT: $14.62 Volume=146K Target=$17.55 Stop=$13.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvns.html
Play Date: 01/25/2005
FFIV (F5 Networks--$47.94; +0.94; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $47.92
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher but could not attract any volume Monday, so FFIV basically held the morning gap, giving back the move to 48.74. Very good test, making a higher low above the 18 day EMA (46.92). FFIV broke out in late October from a 10 month cup with handle base, rallied to 50, and then tested the 50 day EMA (44.89). Looks ready; just has to show us the move.
Volume: 1.072M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: $48.32 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: FLK DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 01/22/2005
TERN (Terayon Communication--$3.20; +0.17; no options): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tern.html
After Hours: $3.19
STATUS: Volume was up to average Monday as TERN broke higher. As it continues to move up off the 50 day EMA (2.53). It is working on the right side of its base to a big 15 month cup. Solid money flow is leading higher. Needs to show more volume.
Volume: 1.031M Avg Volume: 707.363K
BUY POINT: New: 3.25 (orig. $3.08) Volume=1.1M Target=$4.12 Stop=$2.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tern.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$27.16; +0.51; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped to average Monday but TOO did more of the same, i.e. moved laterally in its 3 week test of the strong early January break higher. This may be where it crouches and gathers itself before the break higher, but we need to see that move. To recap: TOO has worked its way through a long two year base, capping off a nice 10 week run from September to early December with a 4 week pullback to the 50 day EMA (25.20) where it spent a couple of weeks to catch its breath. Excellent money flow continues to lead higher. Positive 2 to 1 accumulation in the current short pattern indicates buyers are still moving into the stock.
Volume: 611.8K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=1M Target=$32 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Play Date: 01/29/2005
WAG (Walgreens--$42.61; -0.26; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wag.html
After Hours: $43.34
STATUS: Breakout test. WAG was somewhat of a contrarian Monday easing back on lower, below average volume. It took a breather after a strong break higher Friday. It stalled out at the 43 resistance point. Strong money flow remains along with excellent relative strength. Looking for a break through those recent highs to move in. to recap: strong break higher to start the year on strong earnings and December sales. It peaked at 43 on the move and came back to test that move, holding the 18 day EMA (41.80), the near support that strong stocks tend to hold after a breakout. It worked laterally along that support last week and then blasted higher Friday on stronger, above average volume. Using options to leverage our gains.
Volume: 2.341M Avg Volume: 2.74M
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=4M Target=$47.38 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: WAG DV - Apr. $42.50c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wag.html
Downside:
Play Date: 01/29/2005
ETN (Eaton Corp.--$67.99; +0.99; optionable): Fluid power systems, electrical power control, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etn.html
STATUS: Put. Reversed the Friday selling and rallied higher Monday, but volume was much lower (back to average) as it made the move up to test the 50 day EMA (67.89). Looks ready to roll back over and follow the weak money flow lower. To recap: ETN peaked at the end of the year with many stocks then tanked in the subsequent selling. It held the 50 day EMA on the first leg lower, but after two weeks of moving along that support it gapped through it two weeks back. It managed a rebound last week, but as it approached the 50 day with a gap higher Friday, it reversed and sold back. Looks ready to roll over and fully test the 200 day SMA (63.56); it turned back up ahead of that point on the last selling. That will post us a nice 40%ish gain.
Volume: 917.4K Avg Volume: 852.818K
BUY POINT: New: $67.12 (orig. $66.77) Volume=1.3M Target=$63.95 Stop=$67.92
POSITION: ETN ON - Mar. $70p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etn.html
Play Date: 01/26/2005
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$94.18; +0.24; optionable): Variety stores and Sears
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $94.63
STATUS: Put. Struggled again under the 50 day EMA (95.52) Monday, its second session struggling below that level. Low volume again, so no strength to try and push it higher. The Sears earnings pushed it higher last week, but volume was not enough to break it through resistance. Still looks ready to roll back over and give us a very nice downside run. We moved up the buy point to accommodate the Thursday bounce and give us more downside to profit from.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 2.421M
BUY POINT: $92.12 Volume=2.5M Target=$86.45 Stop=$93.72
POSITION: KTQ OR - Mar. $90p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
