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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ALXN; CPS; ESLR; NVDA; TIWI; WITS
Tuesday night play results:
ARB: Edged higher on average volume. Not a good enough move.
FLR: Volume has been up the past two sessions. Just needs a bit more to really get it going.
NVDA: Nice gap higher on earnings, tested, and then kept going.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/02/2005
PRFT (Perficient--$8.14; +0.66; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prft.html
After Hours: $7.65
STATUS: Breakout test. PRFT blasted higher to start the new year in the second leg of its breakout from a 8 month cup with handle base. After that move PRFT was sucked into the market selling and went down to test the 50 day EMA (6.72) toward the end of January. It held, rebounded, and has made a low volume test of the 18 day EMA. Wednesday PRFT jumped off the 18 day (7.48) on the strongest volume since early January, rallying on above average volume. Excellent money flow is leading to the upside. Ready to move into positions on a further volume move.
Volume: 1.087M Avg Volume: 411.227K
BUY POINT: $8.41 Volume=600K Target=$10.15 Stop=$7.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/prft.html
Play Date: 02/02/2005
PLMD (Polymedica--$37.60; +0.71; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plmd.html
After Hours: $37.56
STATUS: Trading range. Volume shot higher Wednesday as PLMD toyed with the breakout from a 9 week trading range between 34 and 38. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows accumulation during the lateral move. Strong money flow is helping lead the way. Relative strength is ready for the next breakout, a good sign of the stock's strength. Looking for that volume to continue as PLMD moves through the buy point.
Volume: 426.826K Avg Volume: 207K
BUY POINT: $38.05 Volume=310K Target=$43.71 Stop=$36.42
POSITION: PM FG - June $35c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plmd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/02/2005
DRL (Doral Financial--$43.05; -1.18; optionable): Mortgage investment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drl.html
STATUS: Put. Did not like the Fed's action, dropping from the 18 day EMA (44.48) test on rising, above average volume. DRL double topped in January and collapsed in the middle of that month. It fell close to the 200 day SMA (40.02) on that drop but then rebounded on lower volume. Money flow is in the toilet, and the stock has been under heavy distribution. Looks ready to start its second leg lower. A move down to the target nabs us a 42%ish gain, and it can get there in a hurry.
Volume: 1.504M Avg Volume: 435.818K
BUY POINT: $42.95 Volume=1M Target=$40.88 Stop=$43.65
POSITION: DRL OI - Mar. $45p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/drl.html
Continuing that look ready:
Play Date: 01/31/2005
HTCH (Hutchinson Technology--$35.97; +0.59; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htch.html
After Hours: $35.97
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume remains solid as HTCH moves toward the breakout from its 13 month base. Excellent money flow is leading the way. Volume has swelled the past three weeks as it has moved over the 50 day EMA (33.72), a very good signal of added activity that often precedes a breakout.
Volume: 571.331K Avg Volume: 372.772K
BUY POINT: $36.05 Volume=450K Target=$43 Stop=$34.32
POSITION: UTQ EG - May $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/htch.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
JNPR: Well, it has managed to hold the 200 day SMA for two weeks. This is where it should hold to form the bottom of its next base.
MSFT: As with NASDAQ, MSFT has rallied up to the 50 day EMA. It cannot break through despite its much heralded earnings. Could be trouble.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
ASHW: Clothing maker that is breaking to a multiyear high. It blasted out of year long flat base in early December, rallying from 8.50 to 11. It then tested the 18 day EMA and rebounded the next 6 weeks, moving along 11. A break higher puts it on its next leg of the breakout.
CYCL: Testing the 18 day EMA after a strong breakout in early January from a 12 month base. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Note the very low volume on this pullback to test the breakout. That shows very few sellers even after that strong move. Jumped higher Wednesday but no volume. Just need to see more trade as it moves off this level.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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