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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: Many. CYCL; EFC; GPRO; HTCH; INNO; KBH; NCR; NVDA; TTEC; ROK
Thursday night play results:
CWTR: Still a solid test of the 50 day EMA.
HTRN: Gapped higher but no volume to carry the move and it came back.
INNO: Blasted higher on volume.
LIZ: Started the move, but not enough volume.
TV: Ready to make the next move.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/05/2005
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$38.69; -0.21; no options): Chicken wing restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. It isn't gourmet, but these are very popular restaurants. BWLD was a new issue in late 2003. It formed its first base April to December, breaking out but then selling back in the early 2005 selling. It recovered and continued the breakout with a strong move. It has come back the past week to test on much lower, below average volume, holding the 18 day EMA (38.56) Friday and showing a nice hammer doji. That often indicates the pullback is over, and we are looking for BWLD to rebound from here on volume.
Volume: 64.813K Avg Volume: 107.636K
BUY POINT: $39.28 Volume=161K Target=$45.45 Stop=$38.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bwld.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
CPKI (California Pizza Kitchen--$26; +0.79; optionable): Stone oven pizza restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpki.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has formed a nice 9 week base roughly using the 50 day EMA (24.11 as support; a key institutional level where big money steps in to buy some shares of their favorite stocks. If they don't, that is a problem for the stock. Nice 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers during the pattern and sets up the breakout. Strong money flow is surging higher again and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Strong volume Friday after CPKI reported nice earnings Thursday after the close. It gapped lower but rebounded on that strong trade. Looking for that shakeout to continue the break higher.
Volume: 490.013K Avg Volume: 190.045K
BUY POINT: $26.22 Volume=285K Target=$31.45 Stop=$24.77
POSITION: CUH GE - July $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpki.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
FDS (Factset Research--$54.74; +1.77; optionable): ITS software. Splits 3:2 on 2-7-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. By the time Monday rolls around FDS will have split, but it was up solidly Friday on tremendous volume. Looks as if FDS is going to run through the split and we want to capture what is looking like a strong rebound off the important support at the 50 day EMA (53.10). You want to see volume jump on the move off this level because it shows the big buyers stepping in to buy it at this 'bargain' level.
Volume: 522.7K Avg Volume: 243.136K
BUY POINT: $36.71 Volume=285K Target=$39.85 Stop=$36.12
POSITION: FDS FG - June $35c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fds.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
GET (Gaylord Entertainment--$40.59; +1.94; optionable): Large group meetings hotels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/get.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume shot higher Friday as GET shot off the 50 day EMA (38.80); a couple of good shots. GET broke out of an 8 month base in late October and rallied sharply up the 18 day EMA (39.67) as a strong breakout will do. After five bounces off the 18 day EMA it needed a test of the move. It came back to the 50 day EMA, the support that is the secondary support in a continuing breakout move. Strong stocks will hold that level and start the next breakout run up the 18 day. Good accumulation even during this pullback (3 to 1) shows buyers still moving in. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price. Looks ready to resume the move.
Volume: 329.1K Avg Volume: 198.681K
BUY POINT: $40.89 Volume=300K Target=$47 Stop=$39.47
POSITION: GET GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/get.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
SYNA (Synaptics--$39.53; +3.55; optionable): ITS software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
After Hours: $39.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started the breakout move from its 10 week base on Friday, rallying off the 10 day EMA (36.57) that acted as support for the handle to the base. Volume was very strong, and that showed buyers jumping in on the breakout move. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the move and a good sign on a day when stocks rallied broadly. Looking to pick up positions on a continued solid volume move higher.
Volume: 4.525M Avg Volume: 943.363K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$48.65 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: QYG FH - June $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syna.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
TDS (Telephone & Data Sys.--$85.30; +1.80; optionable): Wireless telecom. Forecast to announce a stock split 2-9-05.
BACKGROUND: Last split way back in early 1989 at roughly $35. Something of a wild card, but moving well in a nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tds.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume Friday as TDS started the breakout from its 18 week base. Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and it used the 200 day SMA (75.60) as support for both legs of the pattern. That tells us the big money was supporting the stock as it based, using the test of the 200 day to add positions. That accumulation is paying off as more want the stock, driving to the breakout. Solid money flow. Ready to move in on a continued move and then we will look to add positions on the first successful test of this breakout. That may take some time, but adding to winners is a great way to leverage your gains into success.
Volume: 238.1K Avg Volume: 200.318K
BUY POINT: $85.63 Volume=300K Target=$100 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: TDS CQ - May $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tds.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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