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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: FLSH; FSH; INNO; MER; TTEC; VMSI; DP; VMSI
Best Plays:
1) BSC: Looks ready for a serious run off the 50 day EMA.
2) SYNA: Volume is up as it heads toward an all time high.
3) GET: Jumping off the 50 day EMA as it readies for a new all time high of its own.
4) AHG: Starting the move.
5) CHTT: Still looks nice.
6) FFIV: Now it looks ready.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/05/2005
BSC (Bear Stearns--$102.95; +2.05; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. BSC is currently testing the 50 day EMA (100.40) as part of the test of a nice breakout in late September from a seven month cup with handle base. It rallied up the 18 day EMA (101.20) to mid-December and then started the current test. After 8 weeks of low volume, very orderly selling, volume moved back up to average Friday as BSC posted a nice price ump off the 50 day. Looks ready to give us a nice trade up to near the December high. Using options to get the best leverage.
Volume: 932.5K Avg Volume: 996.454K
BUY POINT: $103.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$112 Stop=$100.95
POSITION: BSC DT - Apr. $100c (79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsc.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
GET (Gaylord Entertainment--$40.59; +1.94; optionable): Large group meetings hotels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/get.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume shot higher Friday as GET shot off the 50 day EMA (38.80); a couple of good shots. GET broke out of an 8 month base in late October and rallied sharply up the 18 day EMA (39.67) as a strong breakout will do. After five bounces off the 18 day EMA it needed a test of the move. It came back to the 50 day EMA, the support that is the secondary support in a continuing breakout move. Strong stocks will hold that level and start the next breakout run up the 18 day. Good accumulation even during this pullback (3 to 1) shows buyers still moving in. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price. Looks ready to resume the move.
Volume: 329.1K Avg Volume: 198.681K
BUY POINT: $40.89 Volume=300K Target=$47 Stop=$39.47
POSITION: GET GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/get.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
SYNA (Synaptics--$39.53; +3.55; optionable): ITS software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syna.html
After Hours: $39.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started the breakout move from its 10 week base on Friday, rallying off the 10 day EMA (36.57) that acted as support for the handle to the base. Volume was very strong, and that showed buyers jumping in on the breakout move. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the move and a good sign on a day when stocks rallied broadly. Looking to pick up positions on a continued solid volume move higher.
Volume: 4.525M Avg Volume: 943.363K
BUY POINT: $40.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$48.65 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: QYG FH - June $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/syna.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
UBET (Youbet.com--$5.17; +0.39; no options): Online, live event sports entertainment and wagering. If the politicians call putting a quarter of your social security tax into the stock market gambling what on earth would they call this?
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped well above average Friday as UBET made a bold move toward the breakout from a nicely formed 10 month base. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying as the stock consolidated and shook out the weaker holders. Volume started returning in November and December as it formed the right of the pattern, and then it dried up as it worked through the handle, particularly the past 5 weeks. Money flow is surging ahead of price, and it looks as if UBET is ready to follow it higher. Wante another strong volume push through the buy point to step in.
Volume: 744.675K Avg Volume: 293K
BUY POINT: $5.27 Volume=440K Target=$6.42 Stop=$4.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ubet.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
VFC (VF Corp.--$54.37; +0.17; optionable): Branded apparel products such as: Lee, Wrangler, Nautica, The North Face
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vfc.html
STATUS: Flat base. VFC is working in a 13 week flat base just over the 50 day EMA (53.50) just as it did July through October. It broke out sharply from that base and we are looking for it to do the same this time as well thanks to that good old consumer. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. Money flow is strong and moving higher ahead of the price even as it moves laterally and lower during the consolidation. Just being patient and waiting for it to deliver the breakout with some solid volume.
Volume: 261.3K Avg Volume: 500.545K
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=751K Target=$59.95 Stop=$53.68
POSITION: VFC EK - May $55c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vfc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/19/2005
AHG (Apria Healthcare Group--$33.45; +0.95; optionable): Home Health Care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Good move off the 18 day EMA (32.52) Friday on solid though still below average volume. Looking really ready to run. To recap: AHG gapped out of a 9.5 month cup base in mid-December and rallied to 34. It has since tested that move the past 5 weeks, filling the gap and holding important support at the 50 day EMA (31.88). Solid money flow even as it made the test. Held the top of the base on the test, a very good sign of the breakout strength.
Volume: 481.8K Avg Volume: 506.909K
BUY POINT: New: $33.55 (orig. $32.65) Volume=1M Target=$39 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: AHG FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ahg.html
Play Date: 12/21/2004
ARRY (Array Biopharma--$9.50; +0.36; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arry.html
After Hours: $9.49
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume remains very low the past month as ARRY continues the work on the handle to its 9.5 month base. Excellent 10 to 4 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of buying in the pattern. Excellent money flow is surging higher even as the stock moved laterally. Being patient and waiting for volume to pick back up and push ARRY through the buy point.
Volume: 121.247K Avg Volume: 182.227K
BUY POINT: $9.65 Volume=375K Target=$11.88 Stop=$8.97
POSITION: AUQ EB - May $10c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arry.html
Play Date: 01/24/2005
CHTT (Chattem--$36.04; +0.06; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Little change to end the week as CHTT continued its lateral move above the 10 day EMA (35.61) on low volume, forming the handle to its 9 week base. To recap: Nice 9 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Solid money flow. Relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock, a very good indication of the stock's strength. Market leader. Just need to see that volume surge with a breakout move.
Volume: 89.765K Avg Volume: 166.09K
BUY POINT: $36.28 Volume=250K Target=$40.55 Stop=$34.72
POSITION: HQT FG - June $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chtt.html
Play Date: 02/02/2005
CVC (Cablevision Systems--$27.32; +0.04; optionable): Cable television systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Little change to end the week as CVC continues the breakout test on very low volume, holding the 10 day EMA (27.31) and showing a tight doji at that level on Friday. To recap: CVC exploded higher in mid-January, blasting out of a 13 month cup with handle base. It rallied to almost 30 and then has tested that move the past two weeks, coming back to and holding the 10 day EMA on lower volume, an indication that there were few sellers compared to the buying. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base set the foundation for the breakout. It has done that and now is setting up to continue that run. Money flow is very strong and running higher ahead of the price. Looking to pick it up as it continues higher from here on stronger volume.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 1.716M
BUY POINT: $28.07 Volume=2M Target=$33 Stop=$27.19
POSITION: CVC FE - June $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvc.html
Play Date: 01/27/2005
CVNS (Covansys--$14.20; +0.04; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Little has changed as CVNS continues the test over the 50 day EMA (13.86). Volume did tick up to average Friday, that following a strong surge Tuesday. That suggests the stock is getting ready to try a run higher. To recap: CVNS is making a 6 week pullback to test the late December breakout. Very nice, orderly pullback to test the move. It broke out in late December on strong volume from an 9 month cup with handle base. Strong breakout. Great money flow and relative strength. Held up during the market sell off and it looks ready.
Volume: 111.335K Avg Volume: 97.636K
BUY POINT: $14.62 Volume=146K Target=$17.55 Stop=$13.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvns.html
Play Date: 01/25/2005
FFIV (F5 Networks--$48.07; +1.12; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $48.07
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced a bit off the 50 day EMA (45.22) Friday but volume was still just below average, not the big surge you want to see to show you that the buyers have zeroed back in on the stock. Volume has started higher the last two days of the week, however, and with the move off the 50 day we are looking for it to show us the big bounce this coming week. To recap: FFIV broke out in late October and rallied up the 18 day EMA (47.01) until the January selling. It tanked to the 50 day EMA (45.22) but managed to hold and rebound to a new high. It has faded back once more, but is making a higher low. Strong money flow leading higher and a relative strength breakout on the last move.
Volume: 1.225M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: $48.32 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$46.32
POSITION: FLK DI - Apr. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$27.00; +0.08; optionable): The Limited for smaller fry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Flat base. TOO is working laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.66) the past four weeks, moving in a very flat, tight range on low volume. Volume has started to perk up the past week, moving up toward average after very low, veritable dustbowl-like trade during the last part of January shows no sellers. The volume kicking up even as the stock moves in its tight range indicates it is getting ready to make its move. To recap: TOO broke out from a 5.5 month cup base in September and rallied into December. After a nice run up the 18 day EMA it came back to test the 50 day EMA (25.47) in December. Strong sales blasted the stock higher in early January when it reported very strong sales. It has moved laterally since, consolidating the gain and holding the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 497.4K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: New: $27.48 (orig. $27.05) Volume=1M Target=$32.55 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/02/2005
BC (Brunswick--$47.08; +0.57; optionable): Pool tables, Mercury outboards, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bc.html
STATUS: Put. Volume was up a bit Friday as BC moved back up to fully test the 50 day EMA (47.32). After a 3 month umbrella top, a distribution pattern, BC gapped through the 50 day EMA at the end of January on heavy volume. It has rebounded and has now fully filled gap lower at the bottom of the 3 month pattern. Volume was higher and above average Friday; we want to see it turn back down on even stronger trade to move into positions. Weak money flow and under distribution. A move to the target nets us a 55%ish gain at least.
Volume: 846.5K Avg Volume: 609.318K
BUY POINT: New: $46.48 (orig. $45.82) Volume=914K Target=$43.65 Stop=$46.65
POSITION: BC OI - Mar. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bc.html
Play Date: 02/03/2005
UTSI (Utstarcom--$15.58; +0.22; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
After Hours: $15.56
STATUS: Put. Dumped lower on volume Thursday, but Friday it rebounded back toward the 10 day EMA (16.12) on even better trade. That volume suggests it may try to recover, but the stock is in a really pathetic pattern. UTSI is in a long downtrend below the 200 day SMA (21.21). It last tapped that level in early January before crashing lower. It has moved laterally the past 4 weeks, trying to break through the 10 day EMA. It is in the process of failing, breaking lower through support at 16 on Thursday. Crappy money flow and still under some serious distribution still.
Volume: 4.396M Avg Volume: 2.883M
BUY POINT: $15.24 Volume=2.9M Target=$14.05 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: UON OC - Mar. $15p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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