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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CHT; CHTT; JJZ
Best Plays:
1) ANTP: Strong volume as it leaps off the 50 day EMA test.
2) PRZ: Ready for a new high as volume ramps back up.
3) USM: Ready for a nice trade off the 50 day EMA.
4) CVC: Nice test looks just about done.
5) TOO: Volume is surging and now we see if TOO will use it.
6) BC: Has filled the gap lower and showing a doji below the 50 day EMA.
7) UTSI: Ready to break lower.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/07/2005
ANTP (Phazar--$31.70; +5.70; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/antp.html
After Hours: $31.90
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. ANTP exploded in an extremely impressive run in December. We saw it start higher on a volume surge and waited for an entry point. We waited while the stock ran from 15 to 50. Mercy. It has tested that move, coming all the way back to the 50 day EMA at 25.47 on very low, below average volume. Monday it exploded higher again, posting a big gain on big volume. Money flow has held up very well during this test. With this stock it is don't ask, don't tell; just see the move, get on board, be the move. Looking for more upside to move in and hope the ride is not too volatile unless it is all upside.
Volume: 1.956M Avg Volume: 735.772K
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=770K Target=$39.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/antp.html
Play Date: 02/07/2005
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$56.24; -0.72; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
After Hours: $56.24
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. GRMB broke out from a big base in late 2004 but immediately fell into the current 6 week base. We like these base on base patterns, and this one has set up very well, using the 50 day SMA (55.57) as support for the handle. Positive accumulation in the base and strong money flow leading higher ahead of price. After this nice, low volume pullback to shakeout the last sellers we are looking for GRMN to rally on a strong jump in volume.
Volume: 471.581K Avg Volume: 749.545K
BUY POINT: $58.05 Volume=1.1M Target=$68 Stop=$55.42
POSITION: GQR GL - July $60c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/grmn.html
Play Date: 02/07/2005
PRZ (Paincare Holdings--$4.23; +0.38; no options): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prz.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PRZ was a new issue in June of 2003; a relative youngster in the market. It formed a 12 month base and exploded higher in December, breaking out on some very strong volume. It just made its second test of the breakout, fading close to the 18 day EMA (3.78) Friday and then rebounding sharply Monday on a shot of strong, above average volume. It showed positive 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the latter part of the base, indicating net buying. That set up the breakout and it came through. Now we look to pick up PRZ as it breaks through the late December highs near 4. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the 18 day EMA before needing a deeper test. That leaves plenty of upside left for PRZ. That also puts it at a new all-time high and there is no overhead resistance from disgruntled shareholders. Most shareholders at this point are pretty 'gruntled' given the strong run.
Volume: 487.8K Avg Volume: 209.363K
BUY POINT: $4.34 Volume=350K Target=$5.25 Stop=$4.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prz.html
Play Date: 02/07/2005
USM (U.S. Cellular--$45.85; +0.15; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usm.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. USM tried to make a breakout move September to December, but could just not get its legs under it. That changed in early January as USM shot higher on strong volume, rallying to 50. It has come back to test that move on lower volume, holding at the 50 day EMA (45.05) the past two weeks, regrouping for the next move. Friday volume spiked higher as USM posted a small gain off the 50 day; that is a 'get ready' spike that indicates heavy buying and puts us on alert for the next bounce. Volume backed off Monday as it held its ground. Solid money flow does not hurt. Looking for volume to jump back up as the stock does the same. Using options to leverage our gain on this move up to the prior high. If it goes further we will let it.
Volume: 45.8K Avg Volume: 74.772K
BUY POINT: $46.26 Volume=115K Target=$50 Stop=$45.48
POSITION: USM EI - May $45c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 01/19/2005
AHG (Apria Healthcare Group--$33.49; +0.04; optionable): Home Health Care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahg.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After the strong Friday move AHG took a breather with the market, holding flat on very low, below average volume. After this rest it looks ready to continue higher, following the money flow. To recap: AHG gapped out of a 9.5 month cup base in mid-December and rallied to 34. It has since tested that move the past 5 weeks, filling the gap and holding important support at the 50 day EMA (31.94). Solid money flow even as it made the test. Held the top of the base on the test, a very good sign of the breakout strength.
Volume: 248.1K Avg Volume: 506.909K
BUY POINT: New: $33.55 (orig. $32.65) Volume=1M Target=$39 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: AHG FZ - June $32.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ahg.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
BSC (Bear Stearns--$102.47; -0.48; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. BSC eased back Monday, tapping the 50 day EMA (100.48) on the low and rebounding slightly. Very low, below average volume indicated no distribution, just an easy pullback after the solid volume move Friday that pushed it further off the bottom of its short 8 week base. To recap: BSC is currently testing the 50 day EMA as part of the test of a nice breakout in late September from a seven month cup with handle base. It rallied up the 18 day EMA (101.17) to mid-December and then started the current test. After 8 weeks of low volume, very orderly selling, volume it looks ready to start the move higher. Looking for a nice trade up to near the December high. Using options to get the best leverage.
Volume: 664K Avg Volume: 996.454K
BUY POINT: $103.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$112 Stop=$100.95
POSITION: BSC DT - Apr. $100c (79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsc.html
Play Date: 02/02/2005
CVC (Cablevision Systems--$27.12; -0.20; optionable): Cable television systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume once more as CVC continues to test back to the 18 day EMA (26.79) as it tests the gap higher and sets up for the next break to the upside. Very solid action both in price and volume. To recap: CVC exploded higher in mid-January, blasting out of a 13 month cup with handle base. It rallied to almost 30 and then has tested that move the past two weeks, coming back to and holding the 10 day EMA on lower volume, an indication that there were few sellers compared to the buying. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base set the foundation for the breakout. It has done that and now is setting up to continue that run. Money flow is very strong and running higher ahead of the price. Looking to pick it up as it continues higher from here on stronger volume.
Volume: 965.8K Avg Volume: 1.716M
BUY POINT: $28.07 Volume=2M Target=$33 Stop=$27.19
POSITION: CVC FE - June $25c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvc.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
GET (Gaylord Entertainment--$40.13; -0.46; optionable): Large group meetings hotels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/get.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Strong move off the 50 day EMA (38.86) Friday and then a slight gap lower Monday and a small giveback on lower though still above average volume. GET held above the 18 day EMA (39.71) on the low, a good level to hold as support after that strong move to end last week. To recap: GET broke out of an 8 month base in late October and rallied sharply up the 18 day EMA as a strong breakout will do. After five bounces off the 18 day EMA it needed a test of the move. It came back to the 50 day EMA, the support that is the secondary support in a continuing breakout move. Strong stocks will hold that level and start the next breakout run up the 18 day. Good accumulation even during this pullback (3 to 1) shows buyers still moving in. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price.
Volume: 282.8K Avg Volume: 198.681K
BUY POINT: $40.89 Volume=300K Target=$47 Stop=$39.47
POSITION: GET GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/get.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$26.92; -0.08; optionable): The Limited for smaller fry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Flat base. Monday looked to be the days as volume was higher as TOO flirted with the breakout move. In the end it finished basically flat, but showing a nice hammer doji right on top of the 18 day EMA (26.68). Volume was above average, the first such showing in 4 weeks. To recap: TOO broke out from a 5.5 month cup base in September and rallied into December. After a nice run up the 18 day EMA it came back to test the 50 day EMA (25.52) in December. Strong sales blasted the stock higher in early January when it reported very strong sales. It has moved laterally since, consolidating the gain and holding the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 772.9K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: New: $27.48 (orig. $27.05) Volume=1M Target=$32.55 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
VFC (VF Corp.--$55.05; +0.68; optionable): Branded apparel products such as: Lee, Wrangler, Nautica, The North Face
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vfc.html
STATUS: Flat base. Good price jump Monday, but volume did not follow, coming in well below average once again. It still looks ready to bust out higher, however, and if we see some more volume we will be ready to move in even after the solid Monday price move. To recap: VFC is working in a 13 week flat base just over the 50 day EMA (53.56) just as it did July through October. It broke out sharply from that base and we are looking for it to do the same this time as well thanks to that good old consumer. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. Money flow is strong and moving higher ahead of the price even as it moves laterally and lower during the consolidation. Just being patient and waiting for it to deliver the breakout with some solid volume.
Volume: 331.9K Avg Volume: 500.545K
BUY POINT: New: $55.39 (orig. $54.88) Volume=751K Target=$60.48 Stop=$53.68
POSITION: VFC EK - May $55c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vfc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/02/2005
BC (Brunswick--$47.15; +0.07; optionable): Pool tables, Mercury outboards, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bc.html
STATUS: Put. BC showed a tombstone doji Monday on slightly rising, above average volume as BC tried to move through the 50 day EMA (47.31) but failed in the move. It has basically filled the gap lower at the end of January and looks ready to drop. To recap: After a 3 month umbrella top, a distribution pattern, BC gapped through the 50 day EMA at the end of January on heavy volume. It has rebounded and has now fully filled gap lower at the bottom of the 3 month pattern. Weak money flow and under distribution. A move to the target nets us a 55%ish gain at least.
Volume: 870K Avg Volume: 609.318K
BUY POINT: New: $46.48 (orig. $45.82) Volume=914K Target=$43.65 Stop=$46.65
POSITION: BC OI - Mar. $45p (-38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bc.html
Play Date: 01/29/2005
SLM (SLM Corp.--$50.67; -0.45; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Put: After a test of the 50 day EMA (51.37) Friday, SLM gapped lower Monday on rising, above average volume. It held where it gapped so we did not enter as it could not follow through with the move. It still looks ready to fail, but we want to see that strong selling volume continue as SLM continues the move lower. To recap: SLM posted a small double top in early December and then fell through the 50 day EMA shortly thereafter. It sold down close to 49 and then rebounded last week to test the 50 day on lower volume. Looking for it to roll back over on rising trade.
Volume: 1.914M Avg Volume: 1.747M
BUY POINT: New: $50.55 (orig. $50.88( Volume=1.8M Target=$48.05 Stop=$51.42
POSITION: SLM OJ - Mar. $50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slm.html
Play Date: 02/03/2005
UTSI (Utstarcom--$15.17; -0.41; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
After Hours: $15.18
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 10 day EMA (15.94) on the Monday high and then slipped back down. Volume did not rise with it, coming in below average and below Friday's rising volume as the stock moved higher. Still ready to turn lower and we are ready to move in if it continues the fall. To recap: UTSI is in a long downtrend below the 200 day SMA (21.14). It last tapped that level in early January before crashing lower. It has moved laterally the past 4 weeks, trying to break through the 10 day EMA. It is in the process of failing, breaking lower through support at 16 last Thursday. Crappy money flow and still under some serious distribution still.
Volume: 2.645M Avg Volume: 2.883M
BUY POINT: New: $15.12 (orig. $15.24) Volume=2.9M Target=$14.05 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: UON OC - Mar. $15p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/utsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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