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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday. Quiet market overall but many of our stocks were moving very well: ATVI; CHS; CHCL; EASI; ILMN; IMDC; PFCB; SSI; ZQK; MFE
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$44.22; -0.36; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $43.70
STATUS: Double bottom. After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA (41.73) URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA (41.73), an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 11 week pattern. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 852.269K Avg Volume: 1.278M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/29/2005
TSRA (Tessera Technologies--$38.78; +0.75; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsra.html
After Hours: $38.40
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume jumped Tuesday as TSRA gapped higher, toying with the breakout from its 11 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (36.08) as support. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buyers stepping in to accumulate shares during the base. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout along with the stock; that is a bullish indication.
Volume: 1.625M Avg Volume: 842.227K
BUY POINT: $39.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$46 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: TJQ FH - June $40c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsra.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ACL: Forecast 2-9-05 after the close.
APPX: Forecast 2-16-05
ATVI: Forecast 2-7-05 after the close. No split but nice earnings and a continued solid move higher.
BIIB: No split announced 2-7, but good results and gapped higher. Still needs to give us a more definitive move.
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open.
CWTR: Forecast to announce 3-9-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
EASI: Researching next date. Gave us a nice breakout move.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MAR: No split announced 2-8-05. Gapped lower but recovered most of the loss. Still looks quite good.
OMC: Forecast 2-15-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
OSI: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05.
SSI: No split announced 2-2-05. Resumed its upside move on some solid volume.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20.
TDS: Forecast 2-9-05.
TTC: Tentatively looking at March.
UPL: Forecast 2-9-05.
WAT: No split announced 1-27-05. Researching next date as we continue to ride WAT higher and higher.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05. Still struggling below the 50 day EMA as it moves into the earnings.
XTO: Forecast 2-9-05
YELL: No announcement 1-27-05 after the close. Trying to make the next break higher.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/08/2005
AET (Aetna--$128.98; -0.27; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split 2-10-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last split in December 2000 at $70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
After Hours: $128.61
STATUS: Flat base. AET has rallied well since breaking out from a 7 month base in early November. The past 8 weeks it has moved more or less laterally over the 18 day EMA (127.82) on mostly average volume. It tried to make the breakout to start February but faded back to test the 18 day once more. It is trying to make a higher low here to set up the stronger breakout move. Earnings and a split announcement could go a long way in doing that.
Volume: 1.005M Avg Volume: 2.194M
BUY POINT: $130.25 Volume=2.2M Target=$140 Stop=$128.55
POSITION: AET DY - Apr. $130c (51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aet.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
PDS (Precision Drilling--$69.57; +1.23; optionable): Oil and gas equipment. Forecast to announce a split 2-10-05 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last split 10-15-97 at $62. It has been a long time but it has finally made it back to split level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
STATUS: Test breakout. PDS broke out from a short 7 week double bottom with handle base in mid-January and rallied to 70. It has moved laterally the past two weeks, making higher lows along the 10 day EMA (68.54) as it bumps up against 70. Volume moved higher and back above average Tuesday as PDS moved toward the breakout over 70. Looking for that move and volume to remain solid as it does.
Volume: 304.9K Avg Volume: 308.818K
BUY POINT: $70.32 Volume=400K Target=$78.48 Stop=$68.44
POSITION: PDS FN - June $70c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pds.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$43.16; -0.44; optionable): Medical labs. Forecast to announce a split 2-9-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in May 2001.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $43.11
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PPDI is easing back this week on lower, below average volume. This looks to be forming the handle to a 15 week pattern that formed up at the 50 day EMA (41.13), an important support level. When a stock bases over this support it is a good indication of big money refusing to sell. Indeed, they have been net buyers as the tock sports positive 5 to 4 accumulation and some strong money flow. This base is forming right at an all-time high, a point where it has no overhead resistance. It most likely will come back to fully test the 10 day EMA (42.47) before it moves toward a breakout.
Volume: 276.419K Avg Volume: 481.409K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=722K Target=$60 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: PJQ GV - July $42.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit: Two of the same stocks still look very good.
Play Date: 02/03/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$27.78; -0.22; optionable): Catalog mail order. Forecast to announce a split 3-9-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced 3:2 split on 6-14-04 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.22. Prior to that it announced a 3:2 split on 8-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $14.50. Before that, a 3 for 2 split on 12-20-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $16. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $27.79
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. CWTR continues to hold over the 50 day EMA (27.55), still setting up for the breakout as it holds the line on low volume. Still waiting for the breakout. To recap: CWTR just split in July, but it is already back up to split price. It is making one of its periodic tests of the 50 day EMA in its run. It has not based out in a while, but it continues to catch its breath and then rebound again. Excellent money flow continues. Looking to move in on a solid upside move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 134.686K Avg Volume: 231.454K
BUY POINT: $28.45 Volume=347K Target=$34.55 Stop=$27.38
POSITION: UCJ GF - July $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 02/01/2005
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$46.45; +0.08; optionable): Bloomin' onions, steaks; just down the road or whatever the jingle is. Forecast to announce a split 2-16-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-1-99 at $45. Before that it was a frequent splitter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AS with CWTR, no change as OSI holds over the 10 day EMA (45.99), forming the handle and setting up the breakout. Very low volume so there are no sellers. To recap: Moving laterally on low volume as it consolidates the late January gap higher on the strong sales and dividend news. A nice 10 month base sporting solid 11 to 8 accumulation. Good move as it holds the gains, refusing to sell back. Nice pattern, just being patient and waiting for that volume to come in and break it higher.
Volume: 234.4K Avg Volume: 576.545K
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=625K Target=$53 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: OSI EI - May $45c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$51.57; +0.82; optionable): Oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 2-9-05.
BACKGROUND: No splits in UPL's past, but it is at an all-time high and in a range the independent oil and gas companies are announcing splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. UPL fell out of the lateral move Monday, but it held the 50 day EMA (49.86). It rebounded off that support Tuesday on lower though still decent volume. It is still set up in the pattern to deliver us a split and a move. To recap: UPL spent the end of last week forming the handle to its 9 week base. It ignored the market, going about its business on low volume until Monday, but it held key support at the 50 day EMA. Just going to be ready to move in when it shows us the move to enter on.
Volume: 729.8K Avg Volume: 823.909K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: on a strong volume move from Tuesday close. Breakout: $53.78 Volume=1.2M Target=$63.75 Stop=$51.58
POSITION: UPL FK - June $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/upl.html
Play Date: 01/29/2005
XTO (XTO Energy--$37.12; +0.5; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split on 2-9-05 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5 for 4 split on 2-17-04 at a stock price of $27.95. Prior to that announced a 4 for 3 split on 2-18-03 in conjunction with a board meeting at $24.20. Also announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-15-01 in conjunction with the annual shareholder meeting at $28.99. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 8-15-00 in conjunction with a board meeting at $23.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Trying to make the breakout from the 9 week pattern, but unable to gain any volume. We were tempted to go ahead and move in Tuesday, but decided to wait and see what Wednesday brings. To recap: It is set up well in its base and there is solid 3 to 1 accumulation. It has formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (34.65), an important support level. It needed a breather after strong 2004 run, and this is giving it just what it needs. Volume needs to ramp up as it makes the breakout move, but it has set up well.
Volume: 1.358M Avg Volume: 2.84M
BUY POINT: New: $37.35 (orig. $37.12) Volume=4.2M Target=$42.62 Stop=$35.91
POSITION: XTO EG - May $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xto.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2005
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.55; -0.19; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-22-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $40.55
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Lower and lower volume and a very tight range as AMMD gently fades back test the solid run higher last week. It looks ready to start is pre-split run at any time; just needs a trigger. To recap: AMMD is engaged in a long uptrend that has made a series of bounces up off the 50 day EMA since breaking out in January 2004. It surged well in December and then started the current correction, a 6 week pullback to test the 50 day (39.27), basically forming a small cup in the process. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as AMMD jumped off the 50 day. The stock was flat to finish the week. Strong money flow and a good move off of important support at the 50 day. Looking for the volume to return as it moves back up and through the buy point to enter on this run.
Volume: 111.163K Avg Volume: 292.409K
BUY POINT: $41.44 Volume=325K Target=$46.55 Stop=$39.37
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ammd.html
Play Date: 02/07/2005
RES (RPC, Inc.--$27.01; -0.17; no options): Oil and gas equipment & services. Splits 3:2 on 3-11-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/res.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Low volume and a very tight doji right on top of the 10 day EMA (26.46) as RES puts the finishing touches on the handle to the base. To recap: RES is forming a nice, low volume handle to its 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (24.36) as support. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows accumulation during the pattern. Setting up nicely for a breakout and run into the split. No options, but can give us a nice gain in one of its 'normal' rotations as it moves higher.
Volume: 43.8K Avg Volume: 96.272K
BUY POINT: $27.93 Volume=144K Target=$33.54 Stop=$26.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/res.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/05/2005
FDS (Factset Research--$36.29; -0.14; optionable): ITS software. Splits 3:2 on 2-7-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Much lower volume the past two sessions as FDS moved through its split Monday. It is holding the strong move from last Friday though it may come back to test 36 before it resumes the move. Looking for volume to kick back up as it resumes the Friday move.
Volume: 215.4K Avg Volume: 243.136K
BUY POINT: $36.71 Volume=285K Target=$39.85 Stop=$36.12
POSITION: FDS FG - June $35c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fds.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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