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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: USNA; BC; CNF; KDE; UTSI
Best Plays:
1) BDK: Sharp break lower.
2) PIXR: Ignored the selling.
3) XXIA: Nice test of breakout.
4) BSC: Ignoring the market and setting up the break higher.
5) PRZ: Will be ready after this low volume test.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 02/09/2005
BDK (Black & Decker--$82.06; -3.17; optionable): Hand tools, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdk.html
STATUS: Put. BDK peaked in early January and sold below the 50 day EMA (83.37). Volume picked up as it sold harder to end January, but it has rebounded to test the 50 day on lower trade. After trying to retake that support it crashed back through Wednesday on a strong shot of volume. Looking to pick up positions as it continues lower. A move to the target gives us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.584M Avg Volume: 638.09K
BUY POINT: $81.94 Volume=650K Target=$78.88 Stop=$82.48
POSITION: BDK OQ - Mar. $85p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdk.html
Play Date: 02/09/2005
SAFC (Safeco--$47.27; -0.13; optionable): P&C Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/safc.html
After Hours: $47.28
STATUS: Put. SAFC has sold since the start of the year. It tanked mid-January, falling through the 50 day EMA (48.08) on huge volume. It held at 45, just below the 200 day SMA (46.19). It rebounded last week to tap at the 50 day, but volume was lower and it could not even muster the effort to come close to breaking back through. Very weak money flow is leading lower and the stock remains under distribution. Looking for volume to pick up as it heads lower through the buy point.
Volume: 476.398K Avg Volume: 817.136K
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=815K Target=$45 Stop=$47.85
POSITION: SAQ OJ - Mar. $50c (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/safc.html
Upside:
Play Date: 02/09/2005
PIXR (Pixar--$88.88; -0.06; optionable): Computer animated movies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
After Hours: $88.86
STATUS: Cup. PIXR is working laterally above the 50 day EMA (86.43) as it forms the bottom of its 9 week cup base. It looks ready to start to move higher to form the right side of the base. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows steady accumulation as it moves through the pattern. Holding above the 50 day EMA shows big money stepping in to accumulate shares at this important support level. Looking for a strong break over 90 to start positions.
Volume: 580.158K Avg Volume: 916.636K
BUY POINT: $90.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$100 Stop=$87.55
POSITION: PQJ DR - Apr. $90c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pixr.html
Play Date: 02/09/2005
XXIA (Ixia--$17.13; -0.96; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xxia.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A relatively new issue (4 years old), XXIA broke out from a big 11 month cup with handle base in late November, moving on strong volume. It rallied higher into the end of December but then got caught up in the market selling, falling back to the 50 day EMA (14.76). It worked to reform at that level, using all January to do so. It then blasted higher last week on news of strong earnings results. It has faded back on low volume this week to test the move. Looks as if it is going to test the 10 day EMA (16.51) before resuming the move. That is fine as it puts it in a better position to continue the breakout rally.
Volume: 998.5K Avg Volume: 980K
BUY POINT: $16.95 Volume=1.1M Target=$20.32 Stop=$16.32
POSITION: UJC EC - May $15c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xxia.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 02/05/2005
BSC (Bear Stearns--$102.75; -0.21; optionable): Brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After a nice move higher Friday off the 18 day EMA (101.51) BSC has moved laterally on below average volume. It ignored the market selling Wednesday, going about its business as it rests after bouncing off the 50 day EMA (100.66). To recap: To recap: BSC is currently testing the 50 day EMA as part of the test of a nice breakout in late September from a seven month cup with handle base. It rallied up the 18 day EMA to mid-December and then started the current test. After 8 weeks of low volume, very orderly selling, volume it looks ready to start the move higher. Looking for a nice trade up to near the December high. Using options to get the best leverage.
Volume: 677.8K Avg Volume: 996.454K
BUY POINT: $103.35 Volume=1.2M Target=$112 Stop=$100.95
POSITION: BSC DT - Apr. $100c (79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bsc.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
GET (Gaylord Entertainment--$39.60; -0.62; optionable): Large group meetings hotels
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/get.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. GET continues to test the high volume jump off the 50 day EMA (38.94) last Friday, coming back to the 50 day SMA (39.59) Wednesday on very low, below average volume. Nice test despite the market selling that is setting up the next jump higher. To recap: GET broke out of an 8 month base in late October and rallied sharply up the 18 day EMA as a strong breakout will do. After five bounces off the 18 day EMA it needed a test of the move. It came back to the 50 day EMA, the support that is the secondary support in a continuing breakout move. Strong stocks will hold that level and start the next breakout run up the 18 day. Good accumulation even during this pullback (3 to 1) shows buyers still moving in. Strong money flow is shooting higher ahead of price.
Volume: 118.1K Avg Volume: 198.681K
BUY POINT: $40.89 Volume=300K Target=$47 Stop=$39.47
POSITION: GET GH - July $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/get.html
Play Date: 02/07/2005
PRZ (Paincare Holdings--$4.05; -0.2; no options): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prz.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Tuesday PRZ tried to make the continued breakout move, but it faded into the close. Wednesday it faded toward the 10 day EMA (3.85) on lower though still above average volume. Not bad action considering the market selling Wednesday. Looking for PRZ to continue to test the 10 day EMA and then rebound to continue the breakout run. To recap: PRZ was a new issue in June of 2003; a relative youngster in the market. It formed a 12 month base and exploded higher in December, breaking out on some very strong volume. It just made its second test of the breakout, fading close to the 18 day EMA (3.85) Friday and then rebounding sharply Monday on a shot of strong, above average volume. It showed positive 6 to 4 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the latter part of the base, indicating net buying. That set up the breakout and it came through. Now we look to pick up PRZ as it breaks through the late December highs near 4. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the 18 day EMA before needing a deeper test. That leaves plenty of upside left for PRZ. That also puts it at a new all-time high and there is no overhead resistance from disgruntled shareholders. Most shareholders at this point are pretty 'gruntled' given the strong run.
Volume: 451.6K Avg Volume: 209.363K
BUY POINT: $4.34 Volume=350K Target=$5.25 Stop=$4.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prz.html
Play Date: 01/12/2005
TOO (Too, Inc.--$27.06; -0.36; optionable): The Limited for smaller fry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/too.html
STATUS: Flat base. TOO continues to toy with the breakout but has not as of yet found enough volume to send it higher. To recap: TOO broke out from a 5.5 month cup base in September and rallied into December. After a nice run up the 18 day EMA it came back to test the 50 day EMA (25.66) in December. Strong sales blasted the stock higher in early January when it reported very strong sales. It has moved laterally since, consolidating the gain and holding the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 315.5K Avg Volume: 726.09K
BUY POINT: New: $27.48 (orig. $27.05) Volume=1M Target=$32.55 Stop=$26.05
POSITION: TOO EX - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/too.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$43.3; -0.92; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $43.27
STATUS: Double bottom. URBN continues to test the solid move higher the past two weeks as it rallied off the second bottom of the pattern. It is now forming a handle on very low volume, pulling back to test support at 42.50. After this test it will be ready. To recap: After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA (41.80) URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA, an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 11 week pattern. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 657.124K Avg Volume: 1.278M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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