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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: ACL; AET; AVID; PDS; RES; UPL; MFE
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/10/2005
PTEN (Patterson-Uti Energy--$21.07; +0.84; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pten.html
After Hours: $20.97
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. PTEN is making the breakout from a 10 week base that formed at the tail end of its 18 week lateral trading range. Positive 5 to 4 accumulation in the base shows net buying during the base, setting up the breakout. Strong volume surge as it made the breakout move. Looking to pick up part of a position on a continued move on decent volume and then wait for a successful test to complete the buy.
Volume: 3.664M Avg Volume: 2.289M
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=2.3M Target=$24.25 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: NZQ ED - May $20c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pten.html
Play Date: 02/10/2005
UNFI (United Natural Foods--$32.18; +1.35; optionable): Wholesale natural foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
After Hours: $32.17
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UNFI is making the breakout move from a short 7 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (29.57) as support. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the base shows all buyers as the stock took a breather. Super money flow is heading higher ahead of price. Relative strength is also breaking out, a very good indication of the stocks' strength. Super volume Thursday as WFMI, one of UNFI's big clients, announced strong earnings. UNFI came back from the high (33.41) to close, but it still looks solid here.
Volume: 921.6K Avg Volume: 316.409K
BUY POINT: $32.32 Volume=320K Target=$37.35 Stop=$31.05
POSITION: EYO EF - May $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unfi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ACL: Forecast 2-9-05 after the close. No split but powerful move on strong earnings.
AET: Announced the split along with big earnings and a doubling of its dividend.
APPX: Forecast 2-16-05. Tanked below the 18 day EMA so had to hold and show us it is ready to rebound.
ATVI: Forecast 2-7-05 after the close. Major gap lower Thursday.
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CNMD: Forecast 2-10-05 before the open. No split and a modest gap higher on the earnings.
CWTR: Forecast to announce 3-9-05. Fading below the 50 day EMA. Needs to hold and rebound.
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
EASI: Researching next date.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MAR: No split announced 2-8-05. Nice 18 day EMA test.
OMC: Forecast 2-15-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
OSI: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open.
PDS: No split 2-10-05. Gapped higher on strong volume. This one may announce soon; all-time high and right at the prior split point.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Blasted higher Wednesday on tremendous trade. Nice bonus.
TDS: Forecast 2-9-05. No split announced but it held the 10 day EMA as it came back, testing its break higher. Just a nice looking pattern still.
TTC: Tentatively looking at March. Nice test of the 18 day EMA.
UPL: Forecast 2-9-05. Gave us the split announcement.
WAT: No split announced 1-27-05. Testing the 18 day EMA.
WFMI: Forecast 2-9-05. No split but once again colossal earning.
XTO: Forecast 2-9-05. Surprised there was no split announcement as this was on the board agenda.
YELL: No announcement 1-27-05 after the close. Forming a handle for the next move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/10/2005
MHK (Mohawk--$92.90; +1.10; optionable): Carpet makers. Forecast to announce a split 2-14-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in 12-97 at a price of $31.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhk.html
STATUS: Test breakout. MHK broke out from a 12 week flat base last week and is coming back on low volume to test that move. It came back to the 10 day EMA (81.12) on low volume and then rebounded Thursday on much stronger, above average volume. Excellent money flow is leading higher ahead of the stock. Relative strength has made the breakout as well, a good corroboration of the move. Looking to move in on a further rally on rising volume.
Volume: 337K Avg Volume: 271.227K
BUY POINT: $93.59 Volume=400K Target=$100 Stop=$91.27
POSITION: MHK ER - May $90c (75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mhk.html
Play Date: 02/10/2005
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$58.11; +0.62; optionable): Life science research, healthcare, and other systems to separate complex chemical and biological materials. Forecast to announce a split 2-17-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-7-02 at a price of $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BIO has formed a 10 month base that is part of a larger 14 month base. Accumulation is a solid 14 to 10, showing net buyers during the pattern. Strong money flow. Very low volume the past 4 weeks as it completes the right shoulder that has held the 50 day EMA (57.04) as support. Just waiting for a strong volume break higher to move into positions.
Volume: 45.9K Avg Volume: 73.045K
BUY POINT: $59.12 Volume=110K Target=$67 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: BIO FL - June $60c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$46.96; +0.06; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ORLY broke higher Monday on a sharp volume jump but then started back the very next day. It has come back on lower, below average volume to test that move, holding above the 18 day EMA (46.44). Part of a nicely formed 7 month double bottom with handle. Strong money flow remains solid. Looking for another break higher on volume to move into the stock.
Volume: 157.779K Avg Volume: 340.318K
BUY POINT: New: $47.32 (orig. $46.72) Volume=501K Target=$54 Stop=$45.32
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$43.21; +0.50; optionable): Medical labs. Forecast to announce a split 2-9-05 after the close. No split but still looks great.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in May 2001.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $43.12
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Thursday, moving well above average as it jumped off the 10 day EMA test (42.64). This was the move on earnings. Looking to move in when it delivers the breakout. Very nice base and looks ready. To recap: Forming the handle to a 15 week pattern that formed up at the 50 day EMA (40.99), an important support level. When a stock bases over this support it is a good indication of big money refusing to sell. Indeed, they have been net buyers as the tock sports positive 5 to 4 accumulation and some strong money flow. This base is forming right at an all-time high, a point where it has no overhead resistance.
Volume: 666.455K Avg Volume: 481.409K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=722K Target=$60 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: PJQ GV - July $42.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Play Date: 02/05/2005
TDS (Telephone & Data Sys.--$85.37; -0.03; optionable): Wireless telecom. Forecast to announce a stock split 2-9-05. No split but making a nice breakout test.
BACKGROUND: Last split way back in early 1989 at roughly $35. Something of a wild card, but moving well in a nice pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tds.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good breakout ahead of the earnings and it is now testing that move, holding the 10 day EMA (84.49) and showing a nice tight doji Thursday on lower, below average volume. To recap: Solid 5 to 2 accumulation in its 18 week base shows net buyers, and it used the 200 day SMA (75.96) as support for both legs of the pattern. That tells us the big money was supporting the stock as it based, using the test of the 200 day to add positions. That accumulation is paying off as more want the stock, driving to the breakout. Solid money flow. We are getting that first test of the breakout move and are looking for stronger volume as it rebounds.
Volume: 164.2K Avg Volume: 200.318K
BUY POINT: $85.63 Volume=300K Target=$100 Stop=$83.88
POSITION: TDS CQ - May $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tds.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2005
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$42.50; -0.20; optionable): Designer clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Breakout test. LIZ is making the test of the breakout from its 12 week double bottom base, tapping at the 10 day EMA (42.35) on the Thursday low and showing a nice tight doji. That usually indicates a pullback in a strong stock is over and it is ready to move higher again. Strong money flow is still leading higher. A leader and on a rebound in volume as it moves back up it will be a successful test and ready for new positions.
Volume: 444.8K Avg Volume: 556.909K
BUY POINT: New: $43.05 (orig. positions: $42.79) Volume=835K Target=$48.22 Stop=$41.97
POSITION: LIZ GH - July $40c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/liz.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$43.07; -0.23; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. URBN continues the low volume pullback in its 12 week double bottom, forming a handle above the 50 day SMA (42.35). After this pullback we anticipate it will give the next break higher. To recap: After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA, an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 12 week pattern and is now forming the handle. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 540.874K Avg Volume: 1.278M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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