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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: CENT; CHS; CMTL; NCR; OPTN; PTEN; UNFI
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$36.22; +1.69; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $36.10
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MRVL split in late June, formed a base, and then broke out and rallied from 26 to 36 into the end of the year. It needed a breather and it has done that, forming the same pattern the past 8 weeks it formed in July and August before that last run. Volume surged Friday as MRVL jumped off the 18 day EMA (34.13) on very strong trade. Money flow is quite strong and relative strength made the breakout. Looks solid. Unlike the semiconductors overall, MRVL is ready for a new high, not just recovering from the bottom of the barrel.
Volume: 9.95M Avg Volume: 3.825M
BUY POINT: $36.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$42 Stop=$34.11
POSITION: UVM EG - May $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2005
BZH (Beazer Homes--$162.32; -3.01; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 3:1 on 3-21-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bzh.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Made us some excellent money in the last rally, and now looks ready to do the same again. BZH rallied sharply to start February, and as a victim of its own success it was downgraded Friday. That gapped it down to the 10 day EMA (159.86) on the open, but it fought back and cut the loss in half. We are looking for it to recapture its momentum ahead of the split.
Volume: 1.154M Avg Volume: 590.954K
BUY POINT: $162.88 Volume=886K Target=$173 Stop=$159.75
POSITION: BZH CL - Mar. $160c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bzh.html
Play Date: 02/12/2005
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$51.34; -0.11; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 2:1 on 3-8-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $51.16
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice run to end December and early January, and now testing the move, coming back to the 18 day EMA (51.14) this past week. Nice tight doji Friday at the 18 day, holding easily above the early January high. It has been a long run and it will need a rest at some point, but we like the way it has set up with this very neat and orderly pullback. Want to see it hold and then rebound back over the 10 day EMA (51.98) to move in.
Volume: 2.186M Avg Volume: 1.517M
BUY POINT: $52.02 Volume=2.3M Target=$57 Stop=$51.05
POSITION: AQU EJ - May $50c (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: Forecast 2-16-05. Holding at 45 where there is some price support. Will see if it can regroup and rebound from here.
BIO: Forecast 2-17-05
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CWTR: Forecast to announce 3-9-05
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005
EASI: Researching next date.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MHK: Forecast 2-14-05 after the close.
OMC: Forecast 2-15-05 with a board meeting.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
OSI: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open.
PDS: No split announced 2-10-05. Nice move is underway and this could announce at any time.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Great move underway.
TDS: No split announced 2-9-05. Trying to get some upside volume.
TTC: Tentatively looking at March
WAT: No split announced 1-27-05. Nice move off the 18 day EMA.
WFMI: No split announcement 2-9-05. Surging on the strong earnings.
XTO: No split 2-9-05. Continues the low volume move higher.
YELL: No announcement 1-27-05 after the close. Doji over the 18 day EMA on low volume. Setting up the next move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2005
ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch--$54.73; +0.07; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-15-05 after the close. A bit lower than usual for a split for ANF, but a strong move and a 3:2 puts it in similar position as the last split.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split 5-11-99 at a price of $95.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anf.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. ANF surged early February on a strong retail sales report, moving out of a 3 week flying plateau on strong volume. It is stair-stepping higher up the 18 day EMA (52.61) though this pattern is holding over the 10 day EMA (53.86). It will likely fade down to the 10 day before it continues the move, but want to be ready here if it turns back up and follows the strong money flow.
Volume: 915K Avg Volume: 1.878M
BUY POINT: $55.58 Volume=2M Target=$62.55 Stop=$53.75
POSITION: ANF EK - May $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anf.html
Play Date: 02/12/2005
FNF (Fidelity National Financial--$46.77; +1.33; optionable): Surety and title insurance. Forecast to announce a split 2-15-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a whopping 11:10 split 1-28-04 at $41.70. Prior to that it announced a 5:4 split 4-23-03 at a price of $35.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnf.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FNF is breaking out from a short 10 week base sporting 3:2 accumulation. Good volume this month as it bottomed at the 50 day EMA (43.88) and started higher. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout shows a leadership stock. Indeed, this move has pushed FNF to another all-time high as it continues to rally and rally again. Very strong stock and looking to move into positions on a continued breakout move.
Volume: 1.443M Avg Volume: 1.347M
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=1.8M Target=$53 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: FNF GI - July $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fnf.html
Play Date: 02/12/2005
MCO (Moodys Corp.--$86.24; +0.92; optionable): Business services, e.g. bond ratings. Forecast to announce a split 2-16-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its history, but it is ripe and it is a nice leader.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mco.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice, neat short base formed the past 7 weeks as MCO took a breather after a nice October breakout and run from 75 to near 90. It used the 50 day EMA (83.57) as support for the short pattern, an important institutional support level. 2 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying. Pretty much on a straight up, 45 degree trajectory since going public in early 2001, MCO is ready for an announcement. Looking for some better volume as it continues higher and through the breakout point.
Volume: 344.4K Avg Volume: 517.59K
BUY POINT: $86.78 Volume=776K Target=$93 Stop=$84.88
POSITION: MCO EQ - May $85c (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 02/10/2005
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$58.11; 0; optionable): Life science research, healthcare, and other systems to separate complex chemical and biological materials. Forecast to announce a split 2-17-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-7-02 at a price of $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was up well above average Friday as BIO reached down to the 50 day EMA (57.08) on the low and rebounded to close flat. Still solid. Just being patient. To recap: BIO has formed a 10 month base that is part of a larger 14 month base. Accumulation is a solid 14 to 10, showing net buyers during the pattern. Strong money flow. Very low volume the past 4 weeks as it completes the right shoulder that has held the 50 day EMA as support. Just waiting for a strong volume break higher to move into positions.
Volume: 77.7K Avg Volume: 73.045K
BUY POINT: $59.12 Volume=110K Target=$67 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: BIO FL - June $60c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 01/11/2005
ORLY (Oreilly Automotive--$47.08; +0.12; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split 2-23-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-8-99 at a stock price of $45. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orly.html
After Hours: $47.10
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume was back up to average Friday as ORLY started higher off the test of its recent break higher. It gave back most of the session move, but it now looks ready. To recap: Nicely formed 7 month double bottom with handle tried a breakout move a week back but immediately slipped back to the 18 day EMA (46.51), It held and looks ready to resume the breakout move. Strong money flow remains solid. Looking for another break higher on volume to move into the stock.
Volume: 279.529K Avg Volume: 340.318K
BUY POINT: New: $47.32 (orig. $46.72) Volume=501K Target=$54 Stop=$45.32
POSITION: OQR EI - May $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/orly.html
Play Date: 02/01/2005
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$47.01; +1.20; optionable): Australian themed (I suppose) restaurant chain. Forecast to announce a split 2-16-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-1-99 at $45. Before that it was a frequent splitter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Coming to life Friday after slipping out of a tight lateral handle over the 10 day EMA (46.12). It held the 18 day EMA (45.73) on the dip, and with the rebound Friday that makes the modest pullback look a lot like a shakeout of the last sellers. To recap: Nice 10.5 month base sporting solid 11 to 8 accumulation; net buying during the pattern. Looking for some volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 416.9K Avg Volume: 576.545K
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=625K Target=$53 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: OSI EI - May $45c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prodcut Dev.--$43.25; +0.04; optionable): Medical labs. Forecast to announce a split 2-9-05 after the close. No split but still looks great.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in May 2001.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $43.30
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After the strong volume Thursday bounce off the 10 day EMA (42.75) PPDI held steady Friday on lower, below average volume as it showed a doji over near support. It is making a higher low and that should propel it to a breakout move. To recap: Forming the handle to a 15 week pattern that formed up at the 50 day EMA (41.35), an important support level. When a stock bases over this support it is a good indication of big money refusing to sell. Indeed, they have been net buyers as the tock sports positive 5 to 4 accumulation and some strong money flow. This base is forming right at an all-time high, a point where it has no overhead resistance.
Volume: 371.118K Avg Volume: 481.409K
BUY POINT: $44.05 Volume=722K Target=$60 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: PJQ GV - July $42.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2005
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.47; +1.13; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-22-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $40.64
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Friday as AMMD undercut the 50 day EMA (39.32) and rebounded for a nice gain. Volume was still below average, but it was an improvement. AMMD looked super up until Wednesday, moving laterally in a very tight handle to its short 7 week pattern. The pattern formed over the 50 day, an important support level. Looks to have recaptured its momentum and we are ready to move in on a solid volume breakout.
Volume: 210.048K Avg Volume: 292.409K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=325K Target=$46.55 Stop=$38.54
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ammd.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$43.38; +0.31; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. This pattern is getting better with each passing session. URBN showed another low volume doji right over the 18 day EMA (42.35) as it forms a handle to its 12 week pattern. After this low volume handle it looks ready to make the breakout attempt. To recap: After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA, an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 12 week pattern and is now forming the handle. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 504.608K Avg Volume: 1.278M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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