|
|
stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: AAPL; DADE; FFIV; PDS; TSRA; UNFI; USNA; JBLU
Weekend play results:
AIRT: Jumped higher but ended up giving the move back. Still solid and ready to move higher
ARTC: Still working on the handle to its nice base.
BZH: Started an aggressive partial position given the low volume.
MDRX: Gapped higher but closed slightly lower on lower volume.
MRVL: Continued the above average volume move.
NTAP: Strong volume move higher.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/14/2005
DOX (Amdocs--$29.30; -0.17; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dox.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DOX exploded higher in mid-January on some impressive Q4 earnings. It rallied to just over 30 on that move and is now testing back, holding over the 18 day EMA (29.01). Very low, below average volume as it makes the test and holds the breakout move. Bigger picture, this is a 9 month cup with handle base sporting solid 10 to 8 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 8 down price weeks on rising volume). That accumulation shows net buying during the base; in other words there is more demand than supply and that is what ultimately broke the stock out in January after all the sellers had sold out. Very nice breakout test and we are looking for volume jump back up as it moves up and through the buy point.
Volume: 789.2K Avg Volume: 1.349M
BUY POINT: $30.15 Volume=2M Target=$36 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: DOX GF - July $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dox.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
EPIC (Epicor Software--$15.55; +0.20; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. EPIC has formed two such patterns the past 13 months, the second one a 3 month base that is acting as the handle to the larger pattern. That shorter pattern shows excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). It also formed using the 200 day SMA (13.23) as support, another sign of good institutional support. It has worked laterally the past week on lower, below average volume. It is setting up for the breakout on volume as money flow surges higher ahead of the stock.
Volume: 359.533K Avg Volume: 565.59K
BUY POINT: $16.06 Volume=848K Target=$19 Stop=$14.94
POSITION: EUE FC - June $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/epic.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
IR (Ingersoll-Rand--$80.91; -0.37; optionable): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ir.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nicely formed 8 week base is setting up for the breakout move. It has spent the past week moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (79.71) on lower and lower below average volume. That is the action that shakes out the last sellers and sets the stock for the breakout move. The base roughly used the 50 day EMA (76.96) as support, another good sign that big buyers were stepping in to support the stock. Excellent pattern with money flow moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock.
Volume: 652.1K Avg Volume: 1.162M
BUY POINT: $81.92 Volume=1.7M Target=$90 Stop=$79.57
POSITION: IR FP - June $80c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ir.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$37.72; +0.84; optionable): Global messaging and communications services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $37.92
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. A nice little 7 week base has formed at the tail end of a much larger 17 month cup with handle. Excellent volume as it broke higher two weeks back, and then a lower volume lateral move to form the handle. Monday volume was back above average as JCOM started the breakout above this handle. Accumulation in the short base is 2 to 1 and an excellent 18 to 6 in the overall base. Looking for continued strong volume as JCOM continues the break higher.
Volume: 617.675K Avg Volume: 533.454K
BUY POINT: $38.88 Volume=800K Target=$45 Stop=$37.15
POSITION: JQF FG - June $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jcom.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock investment information
|
