|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: ACL; AET; MCO; ZQK
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$23.16; +0.79; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Saucer w/handle. SSNC looks ready for the breakout from the current 14 wee base that has formed as SSNC builds its second move off the bottom of a long base that started in March. Volume has spiked up on several occasions the past few weeks. An excellent consolidation to end the pattern in a tight range, and then jumping higher Tuesday on a strong volume shot. Great money flow leading the way higher. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buying. Looks ready to make the next move higher in the pattern.
Volume: 290.926K Avg Volume: 142.772K
BUY POINT: $23.42 Volume=214K Target=$28 Stop=$22.08
POSITION: QUN GX - July $22.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssnc.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
SSYS (Stratasys--$35.25; +0.35; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
After Hours: $35.18
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SSYS is moving in a big 16 month base, the past two months forming a nice low volume handle over the 50 day EMA (33.66). That is the point where the last sellers are shaken out when the stock fades back after approaching the high where it fell into the base. Accumulation is a solid 15 to 9 (15 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume), showing buyers accumulating shares during the pattern. Volume was up the past two sessions as it started toward the breakout from its pattern. Need to see that volume hold solid as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 253.252K Avg Volume: 158.909K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=238K Target=$42 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: QQQ FG - June $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/03/2005
TALX (Talx Corp.--$35.57; -0.05; optionable): Business software services. Splits 3:2 on 2-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
After Hours: $35.55
STATUS: Flying plateau. New buy point. TALX surged on the announcement news to 36 and has butted its head against that level the past two weeks. Volume has spiked several times the past two weeks, an indication it is ready to make the break through that resistance point. Its split is effective Friday, and we are looking for a run into and through that event.
Volume: 177.068K Avg Volume: 80.5K
BUY POINT: $36.11 Volume=125K Target=$40 Stop=$34.78
POSITION: TUB FG - June $35c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
COGN (Cognos--$43.94; +0.91; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Tuesday as COGN moved toward the breakout from a short 7 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (41.81). This breakout will take it to a new all-time high, something we like because there is no overhead resistance to push it back down. Accumulation is excellent at 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing all buyers as it sets up for the next breakout move. A perennial leader, COGN is ready to go again.
Volume: 1.478M Avg Volume: 803.272K
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1M Target=$50 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: CRQ EV - May $42.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANF: No announcement after the close 2-15. It was a wild card to announce at this level. It was up and down after hours but in a pretty narrow range.
APPX: Forecast 2-16-05. Still holding some support at 45.
BIO: Forecast 2-17-05
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CWTR: Forecast to announce 3-9-05. Announced the split early on us.
DE: Forecast 2-15-2005. No split announced. Never gave us the entry point.
EASI: Researching next date.
FNF: Forecast 2-15-05. Beat the street by 13 cents and announced a special dividend but no split.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MCO: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open. Upgraded heading into the announcement.
MHK: Forecast 2-15-05 after the close. No split after the close but has its conference call tomorrow morning.
OMC: Forecast 2-15-05 with a board meeting. No split with the board meeting so looking at earnings 2-22-05 before the open.
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05
OSI: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open. Looking for a strong report to break it out.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Testing the great move.
TTC: Tentatively looking at March
XTO: No split 2-9-05. Announced the split today after the close.
YELL: No announcement 1-27-05 after the close. Holding the 18 day EMA as it sets up for the next move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$97.18; +0.87; optionable): Shipping. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
After Hours: $97.16
STATUS: Cup. FDX is working on a 10 week cup base that is for the most part using the 50 day EMA (95.28) as support. There was a sharp dip to 90 in mid-January, but it made a knifepoint turn at that point and rebounded to continue about its business in forming the pattern. This base has formed after an August breakout and run to 100. It needed the breather and it is getting it here. It may take a few more sessions to form up here as it works laterally over the 18 day EMA (95.94), but that is no problem. It has 3 to 2 accumulation in the base and the lateral move will let it form up better. Looking for a high volume surge through the buy point to start our play.
Volume: 1.332M Avg Volume: 1.895M
BUY POINT: $98.15 Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 02/10/2005
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$57.75; +0.33; optionable): Life science research, healthcare, and other systems to separate complex chemical and biological materials. Forecast to announce a split 2-17-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-7-02 at a price of $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working laterally over the 50 day EMA (57.12) as it tries to make a higher low in the right shoulder of its base. Volume has perked up the past few sessions, but need to see it really make a move as BIO breaks higher. To recap: BIO has formed a 10 month base that is part of a larger 14 month base. Accumulation is a solid 14 to 10, showing net buyers during the pattern. Strong money flow. Very low volume the past 4 weeks as it completes the right shoulder that has held the 50 day EMA as support.
Volume: 53.7K Avg Volume: 68.59K
BUY POINT: $59.12 Volume=110K Target=$67 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: BIO FL - June $60c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
IR (Ingersoll-Rand--$80.78; -0.13; optionable): Machinery. Researching to pinpoint a date but a great pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last split in 1997 at $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ir.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another nice, low volume session as IR held above the 10 day EMA (79.91) as it continues to work on the handle to its nice base. Just waiting for volume to jump as it makes the breakout move. To recap: Nicely formed 8 week base is setting up for the breakout move. It has spent the past week moving laterally over the 10 day EMA on lower and lower below average volume. That is the action that shakes out the last sellers and sets the stock for the breakout move. The base roughly used the 50 day EMA (77.11) as support, another good sign that big buyers were stepping in to support the stock. Excellent pattern with money flow moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock.
Volume: 678.2K Avg Volume: 1.157M
BUY POINT: $81.92 Volume=1.7M Target=$90 Stop=$79.57
POSITION: IR FP - June $80c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ir.html
Play Date: 02/01/2005
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$46.65; -0.06; optionable): Australian themed (I suppose) restaurant chain. Forecast to announce a split 2-16-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 2-1-99 at $45. Before that it was a frequent splitter.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Restaurants have been enjoying increased utilization, and that is only good for OSI. We like the action heading into earnings, a nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA (46.30). It looks ready and we are looking for a good report to break it out and give us a buy point. To recap: Nice 10.5 month base sporting solid 11 to 8 accumulation; net buying during the pattern. Looking for some volume as it continues the move.
Volume: 379.4K Avg Volume: 505.636K
BUY POINT: $47.05 Volume=625K Target=$53 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: OSI EI - May $45c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osi.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/12/2005
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$51.38; +0.23; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 2:1 on 3-8-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
After Hours: $51.20
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Another very tight doji right on the 18 day EMA (51.17) as AEOS continues the test of its strong run. Volume up, and that makes it looks like a crouch before it jumps higher. To recap: Nice run to end January and into early February, and now testing the move, coming back to the 18 day EMA this past week. It is also holding above the early January high. It has been a long run and it will need a rest at some point, but we like the way it has set up with this very neat and orderly pullback. Want to see it hold and then rebound back over the 10 day EMA (51.75) to move in.
Volume: 1.68M Avg Volume: 1.594M
BUY POINT: $52.02 Volume=2.3M Target=$57 Stop=$51.05
POSITION: AQU EJ - May $50c (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 02/03/2005
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.35; +0.27; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-22-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Well, getting a bit weary waiting for AMMD to make its move, but just about when you are ready to give up is when a stock makes its move. AMMD just successfully tested its 50 day EMA (39.39), jumping off that level on better volume last Friday. Volume tailed off as it holds that move. Needs to show a big jump in volume as it starts higher through the buy point. A nice tight handle to its short 7 week pattern that formed over the 50 day, an important support level.
Volume: 120.272K Avg Volume: 244.818K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=325K Target=$46.55 Stop=$38.54
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ammd.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$43.23; -0.2; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume remains very low as URBN continues its tight lateral move above the 18 day EMA (42.55). The lateral move is forming the handle to its 12 week base, shaking out the last sellers and clearing the way for the breakout. To recap: After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA, an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 12 week pattern and is now forming the handle. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 507.669K Avg Volume: 1.303M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
