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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CCK; DADE; PUMP; TIWI; USU
Monday night play results:
DOX: Still working on the nice breakout test.
MICC: Strong volume pushed it higher. Gave back much of the move but showing good action.
ULTI: Volume took the day off after a couple of good sessions.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
AYE (Allegheny Energy--$20.04; +0.29; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aye.html
STATUS: Flat base. AYE has been rolling up and down in a trading range between 18 and 20 the past 14 weeks. The 50 day EMA (19.13) is acting as support as well. It made a higher low the past week, holding at 19 and bouncing higher Tuesday on strong, above average volume. That indicates it is going for the breakout this time as opposed to rolling back down. Excellent money flow is leading higher as AYE moves toward a 2 year high. Looking for the strong volume to continue as AYE continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.125M Avg Volume: 730.909K
BUY POINT: $20.25 Volume=1.1M Target=$23 Stop=$19.38
POSITION: AYE GD - July $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aye.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
LH (Laboratory Corp.--$49.67; +0.82; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. LH has formed a nice 8 week base right over the 50 day EMA (48.24), a level where the big money that likes the stock steps in to support it. It has held up and formed the current base following the breakout and run from a bigger 8 month base. After this very well formed consolidation it has caught its breath and is now ready to move again. Strong volume Tuesday indicates it is ready to move. Accumulation is positive at 3 to 2. Money flow is excellent.
Volume: 3.324M Avg Volume: 661.136K
BUY POINT: $50.11 Volume=800K Target=$56 Stop=$48.78
POSITION: LH EJ - May $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lh.html
Play Date: 02/15/2005
MXT (Metris--$12.38; +0.78; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxt.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. MXT is working laterally the past six weeks over the 50 day EMA (11.78) as it comes back to test the nice breakout and run that started in late September. After running higher and using the 18 day EMA (11.95) as support it needed a longer rest. This lateral move is doing that. The stock undercut the 50 day EMA briefly last week and then rebounded. That looks to have been the shakeout move, taking the last sellers out. Volume jumped Tuesday as MXT jumped off the 50 day. Looks ready and we are going to start a position on a volume move through the buy point and then again when it clears 13 and then comes back to test that move. Excellent 3 to 0 accumulation in the base shows nothing but buyers as its sets up for the next move. Strong money flow is turning higher, and we expect MXT to follow it.
Volume: 899.8K Avg Volume: 496.538K
BUY POINT: $12.75 Volume=745K Target=$15.25 Stop=$11.95
POSITION: MXT GV - July $12.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mxt.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, GTRC, HDWR, MSTR, STN, TSRA, UPL
COH: Trying to hold the 50 day EMA as it made two drops in the past week. It is hanging around in a bad neighborhood, but volume remains low.
HDWR: A most unpleasant turn. It gapped higher on volume Monday and then gapped down and sold on stronger trade Tuesday. It will likely be a temporary event, however, as HDWR announced it was selling an additional 6 million shares, increasing the float.
MSTR: Holding the 18 day EMA well. Trying to make a higher low over the 18 day to set up the next move.
STN: Trying to make the break higher from the flying plateau.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
HLIT: HLIT has formed a 12.5 month cup base and is currently moving laterally trying to form another handle. Very low volume as it makes this move. It needs a bit more time but many not get it. Used to trade near $100 in the boom. It has taken that long to work out the fluff and actually put together a decent looking base.
RETK: Forming the first base after bottoming in August. A 12 week reverse head and shoulders trying to shape up on top of the 200 day SMA after retaking that level in December.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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