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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: BZH; GPRO
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/17/2005
COH (Coach--$54.91; +0.51; optionable): Upscale apparel. Splits 2:1 on 4-5-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Working laterally the past 7 weeks after a strong breakout and rally into the end of the year. It has worked laterally and toward the 50 day, digesting the gains and preparing for the next break higher. The past two sessions volume has moved up to average, indicating it is ready to make a run off this important support level. With a stock such as COH it should hold the 50 day as the big money steps in to support it. Looking for a strong break above the 50 day SMA (55.03) to move in.
Volume: 1.409M Avg Volume: 1.36M
BUY POINT: $55.21 Volume=2M Target=$60.45 Stop=$54.38
POSITION: COH EK - May $55c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 02/17/2005
DHI (D.R. Horton--$42.62; +0.17; optionable): Residential construction. Splits 4:3 on 3-17-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. DHI surged higher 2 weeks back, breaking out from an 8 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. It rallied to 45 and has come back to test that move fully the past week. It has bounded up from that test, but volume has faded as it did. Want it to test 42 and then rebound on stronger trade. That is when we step in.
Volume: 1.847M Avg Volume: 1.87M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=2.8M Target=$48 Stop=$42.21
POSITION: DHI EH - May $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhi.html
Play Date: 02/17/2005
HSIC (Henry Schein--$71.79; -0.48; optionable): Medical equipment. Splits 2:1 on 3-1-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
After Hours: $71.75
STATUS: Breakout test. HSIC surged Wednesday on a burst of strong, above average volume, the best volume in a couple of months Thursday it slid back on lower, below average volume as the market sold. Very minor losses compared to the overall market. Looking for it to resume the upside move and then enter as it moves higher on rising volume.
Volume: 366.313K Avg Volume: 426.227K
BUY POINT: $72.05 Volume=500K Target=$77 Stop=$71.45
POSITION: HQE DN - Apr. $70c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 02/17/2005
CCMP (Cabot Microelectronics--$32.56; -1.08; optionable): Chemicals used for semiconductor manufacture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ccmp.html
STATUS: Put. Double topped in November and December and then started to crash lower. It gapped below the 200 day SMA (33.65) in late January, dropping to 28 on the lows. It fought back the past three weeks to the 200 day but then failed several attempts to move over that level. Thursday it turned lower on rising though still below average volume. Looks ready to roll back over and continue the selling. A move to the target ntes us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 690.577K Avg Volume: 724.09K
BUY POINT: $32.35 Volume=875K Target=$30.15 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: UKR OG - Mar. $35p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ccmp.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
COGN (Cognos--$44.01; +0.25; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cogn.html
After Hours: $44.02
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up again Thursday as COGN toyed with the breakout but could only manage a modest gain on the session. Still very good strength given the overall selling in the market. Still ready to go. To recap: Currently in a short 7 week base that formed over the 50 day EMA (41.97). This breakout will take it to a new all-time high, something we like because there is no overhead resistance to push it back down. Accumulation is excellent at 3 to 0 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing all buyers as it sets up for the next breakout move. A perennial leader, COGN is ready to go again.
Volume: 947.736K Avg Volume: 814.772K
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=1M Target=$50 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: CRQ EV - May $42.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cogn.html
Play Date: 02/16/2005
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$26.77; -0.08; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
After Hours: $26.77
STATUS: Flat base. Held steady Thursday on lower volume, taking a rest as the market sold off around it. PMTI remains ready to make the breakout move if it gets the trigger. To recap: Volume has surged the past week as PMTI moved off the 50 day EMA (24.25) and starts the breakout move from its 8 week base. This base is the last part of a 4.5 month pattern that has formed using the 50 day EMA as support. Relative strength is breaking out as well as PMTI moves to a 7 year high; no overhead resistance up here, and the RS breakout is a good corroboration of the breakout move. PMTI is a perennial leader and it looks ready to do some of that once more.
Volume: 411.856K Avg Volume: 330.454K
BUY POINT: $27.05 Volume=365K Target=$32 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: HKQ EE - May $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pmti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
APPX: Forecast 2-16-05. Blasting higher on a strong earnings report.
BIO: Forecast 2-17-05. No announcement, no movement. It has not given a buy signal and we will watching it as we pin down an announcement date.
CMTL: Forecast early March.
CWTR: Forecast to announce 3-9-05. Announced the split early on us.
EASI: Researching next date.
FDX: Forecast mid-March.
GPN: Tentatively forecast 3-21-05
LEH: Tentatively forecast 3-24-05.
MCO: Announced the split 2-16-05 as forecast. Gapped higher but has sold back to support at 85. needs to hold here and start its rebound.
OMC: Forecast 2-22-05 before the open
ORLY: Forecast 2-23-05. Broke out on solid earnings.
OSI: Forecast 2-16-05 before the open. The earnings did not do it and OSI never gave us the entry point.
SPLS: Forecast 2-24-05.
TBL: Researching next date as no announcement 1-20. Testing the great move.
TTC: Forecast 2-22-05 during the market.
YELL: No announcement 1-27-05 after the close
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 02/17/2005
GPC (Genuine Parts--$44.13; +0.01; optionable): Wholesale auto parts. Forecast to announce a split 2-22-05 before the open
BACKGROUND: Last split 3:2 in April 1997 at $45.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GPC surged higher in early February, breaking out from an 11 week double bottom base that formed using the 50 day EMA (43.09) as support. That is an important support point for a stock as that is where institutions step in to accumulate shares. The pattern sports strong 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating that the big money is using that level to pick up positions. Volume was sharply higher Thursday as GPC tried to make the breakout move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to make the breakout, a good corroboration of a breakout.
Volume: 530.2K Avg Volume: 373.272K
BUY POINT: $44.45 Volume=560K Target=$49 Stop=$43.52
POSITION: GPC EH - May $40c (95 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Buy not yet hit:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
FDX (Federal Express--$97.75; -0.6; optionable): Shipping. Forecast mid-March. Still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75. The more recent was announced 3-18-99 at $92. It is right there.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Cup. FDX took the day off Thursday on very low volume. Good to see it mind its business while the rest of the market sold off. It may start a lateral move here to form something of a handle; that would be fine with us. To recap: FDX is working on a 10 week cup base that is for the most part using the 50 day EMA (95.49) as support. There was a sharp dip to 90 in mid-January, but it made a knifepoint turn at that point and rebounded to continue about its business in forming the pattern. This base has formed after an August breakout and run to 100. It needed the breather and it is getting it here. It may take a few more sessions to form up here as it works laterally over the 18 day EMA (96.35), but that is no problem. It has 3 to 2 accumulation in the base and the lateral move will let it form up better. Looking for a high volume surge through the buy point to start our play.
Volume: 1M Avg Volume: 1.856M
BUY POINT: $98.15 Volume=2.8M Target=$108 Stop=$95.78
POSITION: FDX GS - July $95c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 02/14/2005
IR (Ingersoll-Rand--$81; -0.62; optionable): Machinery. Researching to pinpoint a date but a great pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last split in 1997 at $65.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ir.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally in the handle to its very nice 9 week base. Volume was up toward average Thursday; may be getting ready to show us the breakout from a well-formed base. To recap: Nice 9 week base is setting up for the breakout move. It has spent the past week moving laterally over the 10 day EMA on lower and lower below average volume. That is the action that shakes out the last sellers and sets the stock for the breakout move. The base roughly used the 50 day EMA (77.43) as support, another good sign that big buyers were stepping in to support the stock. Excellent pattern with money flow moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock.
Volume: 1.116M Avg Volume: 1.143M
BUY POINT: $81.92 Volume=1.7M Target=$90 Stop=$79.57
POSITION: IR FP - June $80c (62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ir.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/03/2005
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$40.90; -0.11; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 3-22-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $40.05
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Thursday as AMMD held steady over the 18 day EMA (40.10), maintaining itself in the handle of its short base. That volume surge indicates it could be ready to make its move. To recap: AMMD has formed a nice 8 week base that has formed over the 50 day EMA (39.51), an important institutional support level. A nice tight pattern that shows 2 to 0 accumulation in the pattern. Solid money flow is support the stock. Ready for it to make the move.
Volume: 367.738K Avg Volume: 242.5K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=325K Target=$46.55 Stop=$38.54
POSITION: FGU EH - May $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ammd.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/15/2005
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$23.26; -0.04; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Saucer w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday on some once more above average volume, but with the market in the selling mode it faded back to flat. Still very nice and showing strength in its base. This is the kind of stock that breaks out when the selling abates. To recap: 14 week base has formed as SSNC builds its second move off the bottom of a long base that started in March. Volume has spiked up on several occasions the past few weeks. An excellent consolidation to end the pattern in a tight range with volume starting to jump higher. Great money flow leading the way higher. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buying.
Volume: 190.554K Avg Volume: 145.045K
BUY POINT: $23.42 Volume=214K Target=$28 Stop=$22.08
POSITION: QUN GX - July $22.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssnc.html
Play Date: 02/08/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$43.68; +0.06; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still low volume as URBN continues to work laterally over the 10 day EMA (43.20) in a very tight range. This is the move that shakes out the last sellers and prepares it to make the break higher. To recap: After a strong 19 month rally up the 50 day EMA URBN needed a breather. This base is letting it catch its breath by weeding out the sellers and setting up the next break higher. A perennial market leader; it formed the base around the 50 day EMA, an important institutional support point where the big money comes in to pick up more positions. URBN has rallied back up to the 'hump' in the 12 week pattern and is now forming the handle. When it moves over that point on volume that will be our initial buy point.
Volume: 506.292K Avg Volume: 1.259M
BUY POINT: $45.42 Volume=1.9M Target=$55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: URQ FI - June $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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