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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: COGT; GLBL; MDRX; NVDA; PUMP; VPI; JBLU; JNPR
Thursday night play results:
COGT: Nice, solid volume move higher.
COH: Nice move over the short term MA on rising, above average volume.
CCMP: Still struggling below the 18 and 200 day SMA.
JNPR: Diving lower on rising volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 02/19/2005
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$18.40; -0.32; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in July, FSL just broke out of its second base earlier this month, jumping out of an 11 week flat pattern that formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (17.45). Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buying during the consolidation. Nice breakout pushed it to 19, and it has moved laterally and slightly lower toward the 18 day EMA (18.12) since, working lower on low volume. That shows few sellers and sets up the continuing breakout move once some more volume comes back in. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout with the stock price. Looks good. Now we just wait for it to rebound off of that doji on Friday and give us the entry point.
Volume: 729.7K Avg Volume: 1.88M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$22.78 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: FSL FW - June $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fsl.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$42.51; +1.94; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
STATUS: Breakout. STLD broke out from an 18 week ascending triangle Wednesday on strong volume. It took a breather Thursday and then continued the move Friday. That shows buyers were ready to step right back into the stock aver the initial breakout move. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying support the base and this breakout. Looking to move in on a continued upside move on decent volume.
Volume: 1.538M Avg Volume: 1.149M
BUY POINT: $42.68 Volume=1.1M Target=$50 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: RQL HH - Aug. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
TOL (Toll Brothers--$84.41; -0.50; optionable): Residential construction. Forecast to announce a split 2-22-05 or 3-7-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 3-4-02 at $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tol.html
After Hours: $84.41
STATUS: Flying plateau. TOL is moving laterally above the 10 day EMA (83.19) the past two weeks, holding a narrow range and on lower, below average volume the past week. This follows a strong breakout in early December and a rally up the 10 day EMA. It needed a breather, and this plateau gives a rest. The fact that it holds its gains shows it has strength, i.e. not many want to sell it. We are looking for a move out of the pattern on decent trade to enter positions. Earnings are out 2-22, but TOL has tended to announce a week to 2 weeks after its earnings release. A split has been on the board agenda and other homebuilders have been announcing as well. TOL is ripe.
Volume: 2.001M Avg Volume: 1.694M
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=2.2M Target=$99 Stop=$82.68
POSITION: TOL FQ - June $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tol.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$69.93; +0.07; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 3-15-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
After Hours: $69.86
STATUS: Flying plateau. VMSI broke out from a 5 month flat base in late October and rallied to 65 before it needed a rest. It sold back to the 50 day EMA (65.42) to take the rest and then rebounded back for another move up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA); strong stocks show this kind of action when they make their breakouts. This is VMSI's second test of the 18 day EMA (68.99) since testing the 50 day. Volume has been very low, indicating no selling in the shares as it consolidates at this near support. Looking for volume to jump as it makes a move out of this nice lateral consolidation.
Volume: 99.263K Avg Volume: 138.454K
BUY POINT: $71.12 Volume=150K Target=$77.45 Stop=$69.78
POSITION: UMI FN - June $70c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vmsi.html
Downside:
Play Date: 02/19/2005
KDE (4Kids Entertainment--$18.47; -0.55; optionable): Youth oriented entertainment and media.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kde.html
STATUS: PUT. KDE is in trouble again, falling back form a 50 day EMA test on rising volume. it was trending below the 10 day EMA (18.66) earlier, but managed to rebound through that resistance and the 18 day EMA (18.66) and make a 50 day EMA test (19.10). Just as a strong stock will periodically test the 50 day EMA during an upside run, a downtrending stock will rally to test the 50 day EMA periodically. Now that the test is over and KDE is selling again with some authority, we are looking to buy some downside positions as it continues lower in its long 12 month downtrend. A move to the target nets us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 145.5K Avg Volume: 154.272K
BUY POINT: $18.36 Volume=155K Target=$16.95 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: KDE PD - Apr. $20p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kde.html
Play Date: 02/19/2005
SLM (SLM Corp.--$47.92; -1.76; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
After Hours: $47.92
STATUS: Put. After a solid run from 42.50 to 55, SLM has rolled over as the last part of the move had no volume. Volume has spiked up on the selling, and after a low volume rebound to test the 50 day EMA (49.07) last week, it rolled over Friday on a big volume surge. Looks ready to test toward the 200 day SMA (41.94). Our initial target nets us a 43%ish gain, but if it is selling hard at that time we will take some gain and see how far SLM really wants to go in testing that 200 day SMA.
Volume: 7.04M Avg Volume: 1.748M
BUY POINT: $47.68 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.55 Stop=$48.22
POSITION: SLM PJ - Apr. $50c (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock split
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