stock ticker, stock split

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers Friday: COGT; GLBL; MDRX; NVDA; PUMP; VPI; JBLU; JNPR

Thursday night play results:
COGT: Nice, solid volume move higher.
STEM: Very low volume as it tests the 18 day EMA once more.
JNPR: Diving lower on rising volume.
ISSX: Held steady over 20, the point it needs to break through to start the play.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 02/19/2005
FSL (Freescale Semiconductor--$18.40; -0.32; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in July, FSL just broke out of its second base earlier this month, jumping out of an 11 week flat pattern that formed roughly around the 50 day EMA (17.45). Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buying during the consolidation. Nice breakout pushed it to 19, and it has moved laterally and slightly lower toward the 18 day EMA (18.12) since, working lower on low volume. That shows few sellers and sets up the continuing breakout move once some more volume comes back in. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout with the stock price. Looks good. Now we just wait for it to rebound off of that doji on Friday and give us the entry point.
Volume: 729.7K Avg Volume: 1.88M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=2.1M Target=$22.78 Stop=$18.05
POSITION: FSL FW - June $17.50c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fsl.html

Play Date: 02/19/2005
DCAI (Dialysis Corp. of America--$25.70; +0.37; no options): Outpatient kidney dialysis centers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcai.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DCAI is forming a very low volume handle to its short 7 week base. The base has formed using the 50 day EMA (21.72) as the support for the right leg, an important institutional support the big money uses to buy up shares of stocks they like. Accumulation in the pattern is excellent at 3 to 0, showing solid net buying as it takes this breather. It has come back to tap at the 18 day EMA (24.86) on the session lows the past two sessions, and we are looking for this test to let it find its footing and deliver a high volume break higher.
Volume: 98.814K Avg Volume: 295.801K
BUY POINT: $26.45 Volume=444K Target=$30.45 Stop=$24.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dcai.html

Play Date: 02/19/2005
SIM (Grupo Simec--$8.03; +0.34; no options): Steel and iron. Mini mills that manufacture steel and iron products used in residential, commercial and industrial construction.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sim.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume screamed higher Friday as SIM moved toward the breakout from its 8 week base that has formed on top of the 50 day EMA (6.55), that important near support level often noted where the big money picks up shares of stocks they like. A nice little base sporting excellent 3 to 0 accumulation; nothing but buying in the pattern. SIM is ready to move to another multiyear high where there is no overhead resistance. Solid money flow and relative strength is moving up to breakout with the stock, a good corroboration of the breakout move. A nice, neat pattern. Want to see some more good volume as it moves up again and takes out the buy point.
Volume: 495.4K Avg Volume: 215.181K
BUY POINT: $8.32 Volume=250K Target=$10.38 Stop=$7.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sim.html

Downside:

Play Date: 02/19/2005
KDE (4Kids Entertainment--$18.47; -0.55; optionable): Youth oriented entertainment and media.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kde.html
STATUS: PUT. KDE is in trouble again, falling back form a 50 day EMA test on rising volume. it was trending below the 10 day EMA (18.66) earlier, but managed to rebound through that resistance and the 18 day EMA (18.66) and make a 50 day EMA test (19.10). Just as a strong stock will periodically test the 50 day EMA during an upside run, a downtrending stock will rally to test the 50 day EMA periodically. Now that the test is over and KDE is selling again with some authority, we are looking to buy some downside positions as it continues lower in its long 12 month downtrend. A move to the target nets us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 145.5K Avg Volume: 154.272K
BUY POINT: $18.36 Volume=155K Target=$16.95 Stop=$18.72
POSITION: KDE PD - Apr. $20p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kde.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.

BR, COH, EASI, GTRC, HDWR, MSTR, STN, TSRA, UPL

BR: Resuming the break higher Friday with a solid, above average volume advance.

EASI: Earnings are out 2-22 before the open and there is the possibility of a split announcement.

MSTR: Really like the flat, tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA on very low volume.

TSRA: Nice test of the 10 day EMA on low volume continues.

UPL: A pre-split stock now. It is working laterally over the 10 day EMA as well, and just needs some volume to send it higher.

SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST

We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.

Upside:

XXIA: A chip equipment stock testing an early February breakout, moving laterally over the 10 day EMA in a very tight range. A few volume spikes here and there show some buying that could send it higher.

FRD: Steel and iron. Testing the 50 day EMA after a strong breakout to start the month. Gave all of that breakout back, however, not the best action. You like to see a breakout test, but you want to see the test hold some of the breakout move as that shows buyers are eager to jump in, not waiting for it to fall all the way back.

FRO: Shipping. Setting up a nice double bottom with handle base that used the 200 day SMA as support.

SIE: Health care plans. Broke higher to start the month, but has not had much more push higher since. Not a real test, just a drift higher on mostly lower volume. A new high so you would like to see more strength in the move.

Downside:

BBOX: Has filled a gap lower 6 sessions back, trying to get through the 10 day EMA on the rebound but struggling.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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